if you guys survive this round ill give you both a gift. picking 5 straight in this tournament isn't an easy task. if there's no winner, ill still send the both of you something small.
if you guys survive this round ill give you both a gift. picking 5 straight in this tournament isn't an easy task. if there's no winner, ill still send the both of you something small.
First off i think the line is verrry sharp for this game as all chapionships are.... For chapionship games i find the line i thnk carries the most value, put 1 unit on it and sit back and enjoy.
My orginial thought was this is going to be a slug fest and that 7 points is a ton to cover in a chapionship. Hoever that doesnt seem to be the case.. since 1980 the average margin of victory in the touney final has been 7.9 points... since 1990 9.89... and since 2000 9.33... relativly strong indicator that if you think NC wins, You think NC covers...However the Spartans have been underestimated by the Books all year going 21-12 ATS while UNC has been a public favorite as usual going 16-19 ATS...
Now that Sparty is getting the credit Im starting to think they may be getting to much... Izzo this Izzo that is all you hear and i think the "sleeper" spartans are no sleepers anymore.. In the win over Kansas they aloud Collins to go for 20... If Lawson can have tta kind of success NC covers... In the win over Lville.. Twill dropped 5 points on an ice cold shooting night and the Freshman big man peed down his leg to a total of 0 points... you wont see a choke like that form UNC... In the Uconn will they were dominant, but lets not forget before the tounament started Uconn was struggeling with out Dyson and everyone know if Price was cold they would have trouble putting points on the board.. Price goes 5 for 20 and they get blown out...That performance is what has this line at 7 and not 9 right now and it is just my personal opinion that they are getting to much credit for it..
UNC has looked great throughout the touney... I went through all their box scores form the tounament to see if there was anything that stuck out and the one this that does is that this team has so many different ways to cover the spread as a favorite. I only constant that I recognised is that UNv losses when an oposing guard goes off droping somewhere atround 30 points. In their 4 losses, 3 of them could have been considered "let down" pots from a gamblers perspective and that is deffinatly not the situation they are in tonight. I think this game stays tight early... I see an extemely low scoring first half and am starting to believ the first half under is the best bet for this game. However i think NC pulls away in the second half and keeps running away with it.. Theres nothing roy williams wonts more than a big lead so he can take out his seniors one by one.
I also looked into the home court advantage for MSU in tis ame and i think its been over accounted for in the line. The 3 other "home court" advatnages or just what would have been a lopsided croud... were in 1992 when Duke played Michigan in Minessota... Duke won by 20.... in 1994 When Arkansas played Duke in Charlotte North Carolina, Arkansas won by 4.... And in 2005 When North Carolina beat Illinois by 5 in St. Louis..
My gut tells me this is going to be a 7 point game and I do believe we are due for a great Touney final... But I thik the right side of this line is UNC -7.5
I am a trend gambler but do not have many trends for the Tounament final so i took a subjective approach..
Trend that semi fits this game.....
A SU dog victory on a neurtal court... Look for the favorite to cover the next game in the 70% range
First off i think the line is verrry sharp for this game as all chapionships are.... For chapionship games i find the line i thnk carries the most value, put 1 unit on it and sit back and enjoy.
My orginial thought was this is going to be a slug fest and that 7 points is a ton to cover in a chapionship. Hoever that doesnt seem to be the case.. since 1980 the average margin of victory in the touney final has been 7.9 points... since 1990 9.89... and since 2000 9.33... relativly strong indicator that if you think NC wins, You think NC covers...However the Spartans have been underestimated by the Books all year going 21-12 ATS while UNC has been a public favorite as usual going 16-19 ATS...
Now that Sparty is getting the credit Im starting to think they may be getting to much... Izzo this Izzo that is all you hear and i think the "sleeper" spartans are no sleepers anymore.. In the win over Kansas they aloud Collins to go for 20... If Lawson can have tta kind of success NC covers... In the win over Lville.. Twill dropped 5 points on an ice cold shooting night and the Freshman big man peed down his leg to a total of 0 points... you wont see a choke like that form UNC... In the Uconn will they were dominant, but lets not forget before the tounament started Uconn was struggeling with out Dyson and everyone know if Price was cold they would have trouble putting points on the board.. Price goes 5 for 20 and they get blown out...That performance is what has this line at 7 and not 9 right now and it is just my personal opinion that they are getting to much credit for it..
UNC has looked great throughout the touney... I went through all their box scores form the tounament to see if there was anything that stuck out and the one this that does is that this team has so many different ways to cover the spread as a favorite. I only constant that I recognised is that UNv losses when an oposing guard goes off droping somewhere atround 30 points. In their 4 losses, 3 of them could have been considered "let down" pots from a gamblers perspective and that is deffinatly not the situation they are in tonight. I think this game stays tight early... I see an extemely low scoring first half and am starting to believ the first half under is the best bet for this game. However i think NC pulls away in the second half and keeps running away with it.. Theres nothing roy williams wonts more than a big lead so he can take out his seniors one by one.
I also looked into the home court advantage for MSU in tis ame and i think its been over accounted for in the line. The 3 other "home court" advatnages or just what would have been a lopsided croud... were in 1992 when Duke played Michigan in Minessota... Duke won by 20.... in 1994 When Arkansas played Duke in Charlotte North Carolina, Arkansas won by 4.... And in 2005 When North Carolina beat Illinois by 5 in St. Louis..
My gut tells me this is going to be a 7 point game and I do believe we are due for a great Touney final... But I thik the right side of this line is UNC -7.5
I am a trend gambler but do not have many trends for the Tounament final so i took a subjective approach..
Trend that semi fits this game.....
A SU dog victory on a neurtal court... Look for the favorite to cover the next game in the 70% range
Didnt wont anyone to blindly tail that pick because like i said Subjecting handicapping is not my game and I think that line is really really sharp.. Numbers brought my linee to 7
Howcome you stopped posting your plays..You are one of the few people on here i research their plays to get to what y you are backing them... Seemed to be a lot of road dogs w/ in the division on the RL in bases last year... U gunna stick with that this year or am i way off
Didnt wont anyone to blindly tail that pick because like i said Subjecting handicapping is not my game and I think that line is really really sharp.. Numbers brought my linee to 7
Howcome you stopped posting your plays..You are one of the few people on here i research their plays to get to what y you are backing them... Seemed to be a lot of road dogs w/ in the division on the RL in bases last year... U gunna stick with that this year or am i way off
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