In recent weeks I've been polishing my nba/ncaa model.
Thus far, it has been hitting at a rate of 53%. Low sample size still, though. So far this week it's 15-6 for nba/ncaa.
My model perceives value for the following games (Note: I realize some of these lines are no longer available, however, it is possible some of them resurface closer to gametime, the majority of picks being contrarian). Cheers.
In recent weeks I've been polishing my nba/ncaa model.
Thus far, it has been hitting at a rate of 53%. Low sample size still, though. So far this week it's 15-6 for nba/ncaa.
My model perceives value for the following games (Note: I realize some of these lines are no longer available, however, it is possible some of them resurface closer to gametime, the majority of picks being contrarian). Cheers.
I'm a proponent of higher volume wagering in order to reduce variance. I'm currently on a leave of absence from work, as such, I've had a considerable amount of downtime during the day. I did my homework earlier in the week and locked in each pick this morning.
I'm a proponent of higher volume wagering in order to reduce variance. I'm currently on a leave of absence from work, as such, I've had a considerable amount of downtime during the day. I did my homework earlier in the week and locked in each pick this morning.
Hello Dr. John, what did you come up with for the Oregon/UNLV game?? BOL
The math suggests Oregon to be a 1.2 pt favorite.
Generally speaking, I'll add that each of these plays is intended to be a 0.5-1* play. Further, the majority of these have been supported by early market activity (as such, if these numbers do pop back up, e.g. Oregon UNLV seems to have reached equilibrium at -2, which isn't too surprising, as the perceived value of ~.8 is fairly scant relative to some of the other picks, Dr. John would recommend grabbing them).
Hello Dr. John, what did you come up with for the Oregon/UNLV game?? BOL
The math suggests Oregon to be a 1.2 pt favorite.
Generally speaking, I'll add that each of these plays is intended to be a 0.5-1* play. Further, the majority of these have been supported by early market activity (as such, if these numbers do pop back up, e.g. Oregon UNLV seems to have reached equilibrium at -2, which isn't too surprising, as the perceived value of ~.8 is fairly scant relative to some of the other picks, Dr. John would recommend grabbing them).
For whatever reason, Dr. John's browser seems to be acting up when posting.
That notwithstanding, in summation, perhaps some of these picks would, in the future, end up merely being leans (and subsequently "no plays", if a minimum value threshold ends up being established). But for now, one of the aims is to generate volume in order to increase the model's sample size. As it is, the model perceives some level of value in each pick. Bearing this in mind, this is why a conservative betting approach of (0.5-1*) is being employed.
For whatever reason, Dr. John's browser seems to be acting up when posting.
That notwithstanding, in summation, perhaps some of these picks would, in the future, end up merely being leans (and subsequently "no plays", if a minimum value threshold ends up being established). But for now, one of the aims is to generate volume in order to increase the model's sample size. As it is, the model perceives some level of value in each pick. Bearing this in mind, this is why a conservative betting approach of (0.5-1*) is being employed.
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