Quote Originally Posted by AUSSIE_COOLER:
Nice bro.. ok a couple questions.. live ur write ups but want to play devils advocate...
Murray - hasn't been super impressive however lifts when needed - think he has had the much harder games actually - you mentioned Stan the man is in career best form and i can agree with that however what about the recent head to head record against Murray.. that surely doesn't get ignored by both players ?
I'm actually leaning Murray here.. first one we don't agree on.. but u have been rock solid so I may have to tail you...
And theim - rome is faster then Roland garros right ? Who does the slower court advantage more at Roland garros ? Nadal ability to defend even more and counter or thinks too strong and will still hit through the court plenty of winners bs Nadal... FYI I actually like the thiem +6 a lot however I feel the rome game is a bit of a trap given the speeds of the courts - Rolland garros seems slower but I need to know if that's a fact ?
You have not missed much last week but Murray may hurt u tonight.. he has that ability to bounce.. if the court is way slower then rome for theim then I'm worried about the plus 6 as well although last match urges u to take plus 6 games
Always go with your gut on tennis, IMO. These are just my reads and I've definitely been wrong a bit in the past.
I do have to agree on one thing - it's said that a player needs to come through some adversity to win a Grand Slam every year and Stan definitely hasn't so far... (you could argue that Rafa hasn't either, but that's a different story...)
I would say that Murray can win this just as easily as he can lose this badly. I don't entirely know what's up with him, but this isn't the Murray of last year that fought and fought to get to world #1. He complains a lot, he looks a lot more frustrated, he says he can't move...just overall worse body language.
Also, last year was very different situationally, I think. Murray in better form than Stan and Stan feeling the pressure to defend his points at the FO. I just don't know how much we can count on Murray to reach into his bag of tricks and pull out 2016 Murray when the going gets tough. He just hasn't been able to do it consistently this year. Coming back against Martin Klizan or a tired and hurt Nishikori are not exactly big achievements, IMO.
As far as Thiem goes, I could be wrong, but I think Rome is one of the slowest clay courts...slower even than RG. I'm not sure on that. I've read differences of opinions on it. But even so, I do think that Thiem is starting to figure Nadal out a little on clay and that he actually prefers to play Nadal's style of play than, say, a Djokovic or a Murray. Like I mentioned, every subsequent match they've played, Thiem has gotten closer and closer.
There are obviously some unknowns here. They've never faced off in a five set match that I'm aware of, so it's hard to cap that ominous third set. I'm well aware of players giving up in the third when down two sets, but has Thiem ever been that type of player his entire career on the Grand Slam level? I would say no.
I get the Rafa is unstoppable on clay narrative. It's mostly true. But I think there will soon be a changeover of the old guard of tennis to the young up and coming players who will be the Djokovics and Nadals of the future. Players like Zverev and Thiem will start to be great value in future Grand Slam events because oddsmakers will still heavily favorite the known commodity - Nadal, Federer, Djokovic, etc.
If you're against these - don't tail! I would hate to feel responsible for someone going against their own opinions...this is just how I see it going and I'm putting my personal money out there on these bets. If you're on the opposite, BOL, as always!