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replied to
I have to post and say I love the Millwaukee Bucks to win b/c Mathurian is out for the Pacers
in NBA Betting Good job Buffer. ................
I thought for sure you would jinx the Bucks and they'd be the first home team to lose. Your Lakers were dreadful in game 2. What are your thoughts on the series now ? I didn't see LA winning the series at the start, highly unlikely they come back down 0-2, low probability of that. |
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Interesting stat on joker, his career FG% on 2 pt shooting IS 60.9%. Did you know Kareem with his unstoppable sky-hook never even produce 1 season of 60.9% or better, not once. His best was 60.4% and he did hit 60% one other time, all Kareem's best shooting years came only when Magic joined the team. He never did it with the Big O, without any doubt he shot those higher %'s because of great passing by Magic that got him easy baskets, not his sky-hook. Joker was the better rebounder, better passer, better 2 pt shooter, better 3 pt shooter, Kareem never attempted a 3. Better FT shooter by far. Joker has a higher Player Efficiency Rating, 4 seasons over 31, Kareem has 0 over 30. Kareem has 3 over 29, Joker has 4 over 31. Joker has a much higher usage then Karrem, his career ave is 27%, Kareem has 1 season at 27%. Joker is much more involved on offense then Kareem ever was, If the Joker has better teammates why does he get more involved in the offense for Nuggets to be successful ? One thing is Joker is a far better rounded player that can do much more then Kareem could do. Today's era is definitely different, I don't know enough to judge the different era's but it is surprising to me anyways as to how good Jokic has become. He is the best player in the league today AND playing on an historical all-time level. Joker has more years over 31 PER then LBJ and Wilt, and tied with the one and only MJ at the top with 4 years over 31. Crazy. Next year he can be at the top all-alone if he can do it again. But it is not that easy to get over 31, not easy at all. I think he falls some next year but only time will tell. |
TSix | 55 |
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Quote Originally Posted by usnting3r:
27points 20 rebounds 10 assists 2 steals Just another day at the office for The Joker get out the brooms
I think he is the only player in history to put up those numbers. |
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replied to
I have to post and say I love the Millwaukee Bucks to win b/c Mathurian is out for the Pacers
in NBA Betting Oh boy, trouble ..................... |
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............yep |
lookingtowin | 40 |
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replied to
At some point in this Super Bowl the team that is leading by double digits fade them live
in NFL Betting |
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replied to
At some point in this Super Bowl the team that is leading by double digits fade them live
in NFL Betting |
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Quote Originally Posted by sportschat:
@theclaw BOL today, end the year on a positive note
thank you ....................... |
theclaw | 151 |
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The public looks to be on KC on both the line and ML. And I see as does my friend who watches different shows then I do with many saying they know 9ers are the better team overall but they can't go against Mahomes. To many people saying this same thing, seems to be a pretty good narrative being pushed around. And it's for this reason I want to believe 9ers have a good shot to win this game. Could they win big ? Well, if they win and I'm not saying they will but if they do this might be a much bigger win then many believe is possible VS Mahomes. 9ers have so many skilled players on offense maybe they might just explode in this game. I like the OVER myself. If either team wins big it likely goes over, I can't see the losing team score few points. I will say a score around 35-17. Not sure who wins. Or 38-17. |
theclaw | 151 |
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KC has not been good at points per plays, efficiency with their plays. Teams playing like them don't get to SB's very often. But watching some breakdowns on youtube, guys I know are knowledgeable are saying KC fixed the big issue they had with the receiver drops and TO's. It only stands to reason with all the receiver drops, fumbles and INT's when targeted the points per plays is going down. They were saying Mahomes QBPR to those receivers was terrible but now those same receivers don't see many plays. Early in the season rookie receiver Rice was in on like 15% of plays then it went up to something like 60% and I think now even higher with the other bad receiver being not used much which kind of accounts for much of the turn-around for KC. They were saying Kelce and Rice are the 2 most trusted receivers. KC's pts per plays past 3 playoffs games .148 after going around .06 in the regular season.
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theclaw | 151 |
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EXPECTED WIN MARGIN ...................................
Here's something very interesting. I use the stat that has the highest correlation to margin of victory for the SB champ. Each team has so many pts to use, once they use up all their pts it won't be good. And teams can have alot of points left once they get to the SB, these teams have produced some big blowouts in the big game. Last team to do this was Bucs 31-9 over KC. This year both these teams have lots of points left. KC 32.5 even though they didn't have all that great a year they still did well in this area. 9ers have like 60 pts left, they won 2 close games. The information suggest we could see a big blowout win for one of these teams. The info does not tell us who will win unless one of the teams has no points left and the other team has points left. We don't have that this year, it might be worth a sprinkle on alternate lines laying some big numbers. As unlikely has it may seem but this method has done it many times with the winning team being pretty close to the points they have left. Not that 9ers will win by 50 or KC wins by 30 but there could be a 17 to 24 point big surprise margin at the end. |
theclaw | 151 |
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POWER RATING I ................................ 2023 season 9ers 16.47 KC 2.63 MY LINE .............................. 9ers -13.84 over KC
3-2 ATS past 5 years ........ 0-0 ATS 6 pt diff 6-4 ATS past 10 years ........ 2-2 ATS 6 pt diff.
It looks like both PR's have been at the best over the past 5 to 10 years and alot of that is a man named Brady and Mahomes and to a lesser degree Burrow you cannot build any PR to support what they bring to the table. The time to go against these all-time great QB's is when they are bigger favorites up around -6, -7 or better. I can't go against Mahomes but I want to believe my number 1 ranked 9ers do have a shot to win this game so I'll stick with my futures on the 9ers as my only play in the game.
FUTURES ................................... 9ers to win SB +450 --- 1 units 9ers to win NFC +215 --- 1 unit
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theclaw | 151 |
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PLAYOFF ONLY POWER RATING I ........................... KC 11.84 9ers 4.15 my line ........................ KC -7.69 over 9ers 17-8-1 ATS with all leans 10-4-1 ATS with a 6 pt diff to closing line
But ......................... 2-3 ATS past 5 years........1-1 ATS with a 6 pt diff 5-5 ATS past 10 years ........2-3 ATS with a 6 pt diff
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theclaw | 151 |
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Thanks for the kind words guys .......................................... |
theclaw | 151 |
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Championship games --- 0-2, lost 5.35 units shocker to me both these home team failed to cover. When 9ers got up 10 I thought for sure they'd hold that lead but Lions score on 4th frigg'in down. I got a little aggressive which I don't do very often thinking both teams were the right side, certainly should get one. |
theclaw | 151 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Lowme:
SF
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theclaw | 151 |
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Lamar can't get it done passing the ball once again. Ravens players seem to get frustrated even though the game was easily winnable. All those penalties, foolish. Just before half with back to back personal foul 15 yd penalties that pretty much handed KC a FG that was big as it made it a 2 score game instead of 1 score. Roughing Mahomes penalties that are so unnecessary, players either get frustrated or lose their composure. I don't think the Ravens have championship mentality. Alot of that starts with the QB. Mahomes and Brady bring championship mentality in truck loads.
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theclaw | 151 |
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Quote Originally Posted by nealb4zod:
In these playoffs, you have suffered from that which you always preach--regression to the mean. You're a career 56% gambler in the NFL, but this season you were well above that. You should have seen the post-season regression coming, and faded yourself.
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theclaw | 151 |
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Adding additional play ........ 9ers -7.5 (+100) over Lions --- 2 units |
theclaw | 151 |
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Lamar can't pass in a big playoff game when he needs to.
Same ole story. 5 of 12 with one fluke completion to himself. Great play on his part but he can't get it done passing. But he has another half to turn things around. |
Digitalkarma | 391 |
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