The Los Angeles Lakers have a dominant lead in the NBA Finals, but the shorthanded Miami Heat were competitive enough in Game 2 that there's reason to think this one won't be a sweep.
Miami held tough with the heavily-favored Lakers, but ultimately fell short in a 124-114 setback that moved the Purple and Gold to within two victories of their first NBA championship since 2010. But the Heat might have their two injured starters back for Sunday's Game 3 in the Orlando bubble – and if that's the case, the series should be much more competitive moving forward.
These are our favorite NBA free picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Heat on October 4.
Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat betting preview
NBA Finals Odds to Win Series
Los Angeles: -10,000
Miami: +1,800
Injuries
Los Angeles: Danny Green SG (Questionable)
Miami: Bam Adebayo C (Questionable), Goran Dragic PG (Questionable), Chris Silva PG (Out)
Find our latest NBA injury reports for every game.
Betting Trend to Know
The Lakers have won six straight meetings with the Heat. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Heat.
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Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Oddsmakers are either pessimistic about the return of Goran Dragic and/or Bam Adebayo from injury, or about Miami's chances of being competitive with or without them. The Lakers are early 8.5-point favorites for Game 3 after pulling off a narrow cover as 9.5-point favorites in Game 2 – just the fourth time in the entire postseason that the Heat have failed to cover.
So much of what goes into handicapping this matchup depends on whether Dragic (torn plantar fascia) and/or Adebayo (neck strain) are back in action. Both players are considered day-to-day heading into the weekend after sitting out Game 2 – and while the Heat kept things competitive in their absence, it might be too much to expect them to do so again without them.
With Adebayo likely to return, but at less than 100 percent, and Dragic more of a doubt to even dress for Game 3, it's unlikely that we see Miami keep pace with a supremely-motivated Lakers team. We like L.A. minus the points.
PREDICTION: LA Lakers -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
After the teams fell just short of the total in Game 1, we surmised prior to Game 2 that the Over was in play simply because the Heat were bound to shoot better from long range. And they certainly did – knocking down nearly 41 percent of their 3-point tries. We didn't count on both teams allowing the other to shoot above 50 percent – that was just a nice bonus.
The Heat enjoyed a 34-17 free-throw disparity, which certainly helped them avoid getting blown out. We wouldn't expect Miami to take that many trips to the line in Game 3, but even 25-30 attempts should help them hold up their end of the Over bargain. And with how well the Lakers' offense is humming at the moment, this game should surpass the number.
PREDICTION: Over 218.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
The Over on Anthony Davis's Game 2 rebound prop seemed like a foregone conclusion once Adebayo was ruled out – and that came to fruition as AD pulled down 14 boards in the victory. Adebayo's return hampers Davis's Game 3 rebounding potential, but we're not expecting Adebayo to be full strength, even if he does make it into the lineup.
Look for yet another double-digit rebounding performance from Davis, who should see all the minutes he can handle – especially of the Heat keep things interesting into the latter stages.
PREDICTION: Anthony Davis Over 9.5 Rebounds (-145)
Lakers vs Heat Betting Card
- LA Lakers -8.5 (-110)
- Over 218.5 (-110)
- Anthony Davis Over 9.5 Rebounds (-145)
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