We are three weeks deep into the inaugural season of the Alliance of American Football (AAF) and we’re starting to learn a few things. There are two good teams in the East (and two really bad ones), the West is wide open, quarterbacks are crucial, and Unders make money.
AAF Week 3 Scores
Arizona Hotshots 15 at Salt Lake Stallions 23
Salt Lake covers as a home underdog and the game goes Under.
Memphis Express 17 at Orlando Apollos 21
Memphis covers as a road underdog and the game goes Under.
Birmingham Iron 28 at Atlanta Legends 12
Birmingham covers as a road favorite and the game goes Over.
San Antonio Commanders 11 at San Diego Fleet 31
San Diego covers as a home favorite and the game goes Under.
Week 3 Betting Takeaways
Under still rules
Three of the four games this past weekend fell short of the total, bring the season total to nine Unders to just three Overs. If you’ve been blindly betting the Under in the AAF, you’ve made some seriously good coin in just three weeks. From a team standpoint, both Memphis and San Diego have played all three of their games Under the total, while every other team has gone Under in two of their three games.
The home-field factor
For the second straight week, home teams went 2-2 against the spread, meaning home teams are now 8-4 ATS on the season. Two teams played their first home games of the season this past weekend, with the Stallions covering at home and the pathetic Legends getting crushed (and not covering).
Quarterbacks are important
Sure, quarterbacks are important at all levels of football but they may be even more valuable in a development league such as the AAF. We saw it first hand this weekend when Arizona quarterback John Wolford went out in the third quarter with a back injury. The Hotshots’ offense stalled with Trevor Knight under center.
We also saw it when Zach Mettenberger (finally) replaced Christian Hackenberg in Memphis. He wasn’t able to complete the comeback but did go 9-for-12 for 120 yards and two touchdowns in the second half and he gives hope for the Express’ offense moving forward. Now if only Atlanta would take notice and get Matt Simms off the field...
Bad beats are still a thing
There were plenty of bad beats in Week 2, especially for those who had bet underdogs, and although Week 3 was a bit cleaner it still featured a tough break for Over bettors in the Sunday nighter. San Diego and San Antonio had combined for 30 points in the first half but then mustered just 12 in the second half, leaving the total 1.5 points short. (And yes, I’m bitter that for the second straight week my best bet got hit by the worst bad beat of the weekend!)
Week 4 Betting Preview
The AAF lines for Week 4 likely won’t be released until Wednesday, but I’ll take my weekly shot at predicting the Week 4 lines and totals.
Orlando at Salt Lake (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET)
Projected line: Orlando -3, O/U 44
San Diego at Memphis (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)
Projected line: San Diego -3, O/U 43.5
San Antonio at Birmingham (Sunday, 4 p.m. ET)
Projected line: Birmingham -6, O/U 41
Atlanta at Arizona (Sunday, 8 p.m. ET)
Projected line: Arizona -12, O/U 43
AAF Standings
Eastern Conference
Birmingham Iron 3-0
Orlando Apollos 3-0
Atlanta Legends 0-3
Memphis Express 0-3
Western Conference
Arizona Hotshots 2-1
San Diego Fleet 2-1
San Antonio Commanders 1-2
Salt Lake Stallions 1-2
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