To quote the Mad Titan, Thanos, “Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same.”
And it seems destiny has arrived in Los Angeles, where LeBron James will take his talents after signing a four-year, $154 million contract with the L.A. Lakers Sunday evening.
The Lakers jumped to 7/2 odds to win next year’s NBA title – tied with the rival Boston Celtics as the second overall favorites. The defending champs, the Golden State Warriors, are 10/11 (-110) front runners to win their third straight title and fourth in five years.
Unlike LeBron’s previous two free-agent “decisions”, the move to Los Angeles was somewhat expected. And in Las Vegas, sportsbooks have been bracing for James to join L.A. since opening futures odds on the 2018-19 NBA season.
At the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, Los Angeles opened at 20/1 odds to win the NBA Championship back in early June – even before James and Cleveland Cavaliers lost to the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals. That opening price put the Lakers – a team that won just 35 games last season – ahead of proven NBA contenders like the San Antonio Spurs (25/1), Toronto Raptors (40/1), and even James’ current team at the time, the Cavs (30/1).
Part of those odds were in anticipation of LeBron’s move to La-La Land, but the other reason why the Lakers were set at such baffling odds is the popularity of the team and Las Vegas’ close proximity to Los Angeles. In short: money and lots of it.
Year over year, regardless of the quality of the basketball, the Lakers draw a ton of action in the NBA futures book, skewing their odds when measured against their actual chances of winning an NBA title. Before word of James’ signing hit the newswires Sunday, most books had taken down their NBA futures. The Lakers were down as low as 12/1 at the Superbook last week and even lower at other books on the Vegas Strip.
“We opened the Lakers at 10/1 and we took quite a bit of money on them,” Jeff Stoneback, director of trading for MGM Resorts in Las Vegas, told Covers a week after their sportsbooks posted 2018-19 NBA futures in mid-June. “They’re down to 6/1 now. You’ve got a team that didn’t even make the playoffs the past few years, and now they’re one of the favorites to win the whole thing.”
“It doesn’t matter. The Lakers are one of those public teams that we always take a lot of action on,” added Stoneback.
After re-opening the NBA futures Sunday, MGM sportsbooks in Las Vegas are dealing the Lakers at 5/1 to win the NBA Championship.
The Lakers’ current 7/2 odds (wager $1 to win $3.50) reflect that one-sided handle on L.A. and also provide a cushion for the books, who will undoubtedly draw even more money on the Lakers to win the NBA Championship with LeBron in tow – and possibly the addition of small forward Kawhi Leonard. Leonard is reportedly focused on joining the Lakers, pending a trade between Los Angeles and his current team the San Antonio Spurs.
"Sportsbooks will take steady money on the Lakers year after year, no matter how good or bad they are," Scott Cooley, spokesman for online book BetDSI.eu, says. "They're just like the Dallas Cowboys... one of the most popular teams with one of the largest fan bases, and because of that oddmakers label them a 'public team.' Sportsbooks shade public teams' odds already, but when you throw LeBron James into the mix they become exposed to massive hits so the importance of reducing liability is even greater. Bookies will be rooting against the Lakers every game next season."
Before Sunday’s signing, many offshore sportsbooks offered prop options on LeBron’s landing spot, with the Lakers moving to -300 before the weekend. Once free agency opened, books took those markets off the board with some spots closing L.A. as large as -5,000 to sign James (a $100 wager would win you $2).
With the NBA 2018-19 calendar tipping off in October, there’s plenty of time for these odds to change before we see King James debut in the purple and gold.
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