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Thread Author genosteaks05 Post Entries
genosteaks05
genosteaks05
Texas -3.5, 2 Units


Boston College Pk, 4 Units

Good luck everyone.
FearTheWeb
FearTheWeb
King Scorpio came at his neck.

King Scorpio, your talking about "selectiveness" like its a ratio between bets placed and games being played, when its not. Lets use a new word if the world confuses you. Lets say he needs to raise his "standards".

Make sure your betting standards are high, then any bets that qualify by those standards are good bets. You are now "selecting" to risk money on quality bets only. But it has nothing to do with the # of bets placed. On any given day 1 bet may qualify by those standards and on another 5 might qualify by those same exact standards. Just don't lower your standards for anybody. And by anybody I mean don't lower them for yourself, then it becomes entertainment and not business.

Good luck Web. I'm on Texas and Boston College. 
Macwestie1
Macwestie1
with you on Cal, other side of Illinois vs Iowa. Have no say on the others. Good luck
MaineRoad
MaineRoad
Saturday I assume is probably the most heavily bet day by the public then making being on a side of 35% or less more valuable than a regular week day. That could be it and makes sense.

Maine, what you think?
MaineRoad
MaineRoad
I meant Creighton in my original post I apologize.
MaineRoad
MaineRoad
If you look at yesterday(Sunday) betting on the side with 35% of money would have lost you money.

Houston +2.5 - Lost by Two = Winner

WI-MIL +5.5 - Lost by 7 = Loser

Niagara +6.5 - Lost by 9 = Loser

Fordham +2 - Won by 14 = Winner

Northwestern +6.5 - Won by 5 = Winner

MO St +10.5 - Lost by 11 = Loser

Colorado +1 - Won by 6 = Winner

Quinnipiac +1 - Lost by 2 = Loser

Buck pk - Won by 3 = Winner

Nebraska  +7.5 - Lost by 12 = Loser

Minnesota +3.5 - Lost by 19 = Loser

Utah -17.5 - Won by 15 = Loser

5-7 Overall

So, combine that with Saturday and your 11-9 55%, so your still up $ if every bet was the same unit. And I believe in the long run you'll win or not loser very much. BUT, its not that easy, or plenty of people would already be doing it getting rich way before you.

Unless there's something about just doing it on Saturday that I dont know about ? ? 
MaineRoad
MaineRoad
I love it man. I never place bet on the same as the majority of the %, always with the minority. I think when you couple that with the line movement as well, when the line movement is away from the%(reverse line movement) you have yourself a good bet.

Although, there was a time when these types of bets were the only bets I placed, and it does very well, though vegas seems to even itself out and you can catch a bad stretch also. With that said, I agree that if I had to place a bet blindly with a gun to my head Id bet against the %.

I assume you will be on WVU and Butler tonight then, and are currently on Boston College?
DRE-DAY
DRE-DAY
any reasoning ?
Skin24
Skin24
the public always overreacts to injuries, ie this post. Vegas knows this, and I would say more times than not vegas over compensates the line for an injury knowing this about the public. Im not betting this game, but if had a gun to my head, I would bet K-State based on this. I'll be rooting for you as I have no stake in the game, although, I would be aware of wagering just because the injury.

I dont know if it will win or lose. I dont think it's a good bet either side because of these injuries. Although, I do think your reasoning for placing the bet is completely off.

An inflated UVA line vs Duke after a Sulaimon suspension initially comes to mind. Duke won outright. I dont think K-State will win outright. I just think its extremely hard to assess value when there are injuries and suspensions at play
genosteaks05
genosteaks05
2-1 on those plays
genosteaks05
genosteaks05
Akron -7

Georgetown -3

Delaware -2

Lets go
astrat108
astrat108
Kansas St is coming off a home win against a ranked BAYLOR team, not Texas, but I like reasoning and play
trillypad
trillypad
it was at 4 earlier today, 5.5 now
trillypad
trillypad
true story
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
I completely agree Thunder take this one. Can you elaborate what you mean by "unfavorable spot". I don't know what that means. Especially in this nba playoffs that's been unpredictable and more road wins than usual.
examine
examine
Miami plays Indiana on Friday at home. So this game essentially doesn't matter if they don't win on Friday anyway. Their still pissed about the "no call" last night. Traveling on the road to play a team that is big and physical.

Miami loses tonight by more than the 4.5. Wade comes back and they blow out the Pacers at home on Friday.

You got two bets here to win money. Against Heat tonight, on the Heat on Friday.

Plus when Wade doesn't play it kinda lets the team know it's not a big game.

begginerboy
begginerboy
Agree, but only works if Heat win tonight. So let's hope they do, preferably on a buzzer beater in triple OT
Eagleeyesports
Eagleeyesports
I like the dog because it's the 3rd time their playing.

Hard to beat the same team 3 times, or take them seriously
nostradamus12
nostradamus12
Last paragraph I meant Louisville blows out UCONN
nostradamus12
nostradamus12
Like your card, but think SMU beats Louisville tonight.

Here my prediction on how it will play out, and you get 4 bets out of this.

Wed(today): SMU beats Louisville: SMU undefeated at home, biggest game in programs history, Louisville hasn't played at that stadium in past years. SMU already beat Memphis(by a lot) And Cincy at home, and just beat UCONN on road. Only recent slip up was vs temple after they were on east coast an extra day when game was postponed vs Rutgers then had to stay on east coast and play Temple on a Sunday morning. Which is early for a team on west coast time.

Thurs: Cincy will beat Memphis, Memphis will come in over valued by the public with the Louisville win. Letdown spot.

Sat: Memphis beats SMU at home. SMu is now in the letdown spot after biggest win in programs history at home vs Louisville. Now traveling to play Memphis who is confident at home and off a loss to Cincy.

-Louisville blows out Cincy. You'll get great value on Louisville after they've lost two in a row to Memphis and SMU. This is the game Louisville need and they win easy.

That's 4 bets, you can not bet tonight wait and see if SMU wins and have 3 bets.
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