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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement: Lean Yankees (Matsuzaka / Kuroda) -325 looks like a ridiculously high line intended to keep money off the Yankees in a near “lock” game, and perhaps it is, but if Bob McCune were still alive he could make a great case for the -325 being a value line. How? Why? Because Bob, using KeyMetric numbers, would land on a 94% probability of a Yankee win at Yankee Stadium with this matchup, in this situation, and that would more than justify the line. At -325 the Yankees need a 76.47% probability of success to pass the break even point, so 94% allows a lot of margin for profitability. Now, the average bettor that plays $20 a game and “adds the juice” is going to soil his diaper and lose his mind at the thought of wagering $65 to make $20, so he backs off. This is where flat unit wagering enters the picture. If the same person wagers just $20 he will receive only $6.15 profit should the Yankees win. So, what the heck is wrong with 31% profit in a matter of a few hours? You got any other investments doing that well? 94% is a pretty Bawlsy number to put on the Yankees. I see Kuroda with a 5.22 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in the last 30 days. DiceK has a 13.03 ERA and 2.28 WHIP -- yeah those #s are atrocious, but I don't see Kuroda with any kind of massive edge... Pedroia is back and the red sox will be fighting with any ounce of pride they have left in this shitty season to KO the Yanks into a tie with the Os for first place. Maybe 75% chance to win, but 94%? |
KeyElement | 31 |
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Good job sharkie, looking forward to a season finale card from you tomorrow... And then onto playoffs yeahhhh buddy
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SJSharks99 | 62 |
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Awesome!!! Looks like an attempted sabremetric analysis of the NFL, I'm excited to see how this experiment pans out. Does your system take into account any key injuries?
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si1ly | 81 |
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No Rangers again tonight? Theyre listed as dogs again...Darvish has been pretty solid lately and Rangers offense is Rangers offense.
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KeyElement | 15 |
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I took the Rangers today, Holland has been the better pitcher lately but Wilson is the fan favorite so I got positive ML on them. Thinking about the As too
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si1ly | 40 |
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I took Rangers at +112 today, Holland has been better than Wilson the past 30 days...plus the Rangers have Napoli back, I'm surprised to see them as the dog in this game.
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KeyElement | 23 |
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Orioles at -128 seems like a good value today, I think the Orioles have the stuff to be able to sweep Seattle.
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KeyElement | 26 |
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I mean you hit that 1 game but did you apply this system to every game yesterday?
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jreno | 6 |
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How accurate was your system for all the games yesterday?
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jreno | 6 |
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Thanks dude. Chatter really dying down on the MLB forum these days but appreciate your dedication to posting these daily
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tinfoils | 15 |
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Thoughts on Bears/Pack tomorrow?
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estes1717 | 46 |
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I like em all today, BOL
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KeyElement | 30 |
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I've asked you this once before but I lost track of where the thread went, but why do you divide your picks over 5 and 9 innings? I can see in certain scenarios why you might favor 5 innings (liking a pitcher but not the bullpen) or 9 innings (liking the entire team)...but why not just double up on whichever one you feel more strongly about?
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KeyElement | 29 |
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement: Not a system, I hate that word. It implies following something blindly. YUK. I have a program, entirely self developed and totally proprietary. I think it is fully developed after many years of hard work. The plan is to slaughter the Covers MLB Contest next year then put it up on EBay, minimum bid $100,000. I may also author a book on MLB handicapping. The trial and error days are over. Congrats dude, sounds like something you've worked really hard on over a long period of time. Nice of you to post your picks for free on the forum (while you're working out the kinks I take it )
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KeyElement | 29 |
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement: This is pretty easy to set up in excel if you have it but the same can be done with any calculator. Divide 100 by the line 143 100/143 = .6993 So, every dollar wagered on Phil pays 69.93 cents Assume you wagered $100 on Phil Your payback at the window would be $169.93, risk + profit Divide 10,000 by 169.93 10,000/169.93 = 58.84776 = the percent of wins needed to break even on -143 odds The dog is simpler. You already know he pays 133 10,000/233 (risk + profit) = 42.918454 = the percent needed to break even at +133 Did that help? Got it! Thanks, that makes perfect sense actually. Do you have a system for determining if a team's win actual probability is higher than the Vegas specified win probability?
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KeyElement | 29 |
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What do you do to calculate the % chance of winning given a certain line? (Like Phillies -143 = 59%, marlins +133=43%)
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KeyElement | 29 |
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I like the cardinals game too, I think the public has caught onto the Padres winning streak and with Stults up today the line favors them. Garcia has been good enough and the cards are offensively a much better team. I'm taking Cards -1 today
Thinking about Cubs/Astros over 8.5 too, both pitchers taking the mound are horrible, and their offenses have been ON lately.
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si1ly | 10 |
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You and I are on the exact same wavelength today. Not sure about the overs but I'll trust you
Not to mention Kendrick has been fantastic lately, better than Latos. The lines for the Phillies should not be that high. Another pick that I'm flirting with playing is the Orioles. Britton is 3-0, 1.25 in his last three starts, with Villanueva 1-4, 3.41 in his last six starts. Orioles are on a tear, 1 game out of taking 1st place from the Yankees so you know theyre gonna be fighting hard. I don't know why Vegas has the odds at about 50/50 today.
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KeyElement | 28 |
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I'm with you on the last 3! GL bro
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SJSharks99 | 41 |
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Is there any specific reason you pick the 1st 5 and 9 instead of just placing double the wager on whichever one of those you feel more comfortable about?
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KeyElement | 22 |
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