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4-4 last week...what happened in that Toeldo - Zona...yards all over the place but no points...
Indiana - 14 @ UMASS Ball State +27.5 @ Clemson New Mexico St @ Ohio Over 59 Kent St @ Kentucky Over 44 Idaho @ Bowling Green -16.5 No time for write-ups but these are locks. - LocksvilleUSA |
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1. Central Florida @ Akron (+24, O/U 49)
The Zips starting QB was the back up at Stephen F Austin…UCF returns another sick defense which will rank in the Top 10 again…their starting QB…and the 2nd most combined career touchdowns from the running back position in the country (monte ball and Sconi is number 1). UCF Large even at InfoCision stadium with Tommy Bowden at the helm; Play UCF – 24. 2. Eastern Michigan @ Ball State (-3, O/U 59) Love your reigning Michigan MAC Champs this year and I love them to upset the Penis Enlargement contingent that is the Ball State Cardinal (https://boston.barstoolsports.com/random-thoughts/ball-st-players-caught-stealing-male-enhancement-pills/). The last three games in this series have been decided by less than 3 points and last year EMU out gained BSU by over 100 yards in a 2 point loss. Give me the revenge factor, the better rushing attack, and the better time of possession; Give me EMU +3. 3. Umass @ Uconn (-22.5, O/U 45.5) I bet Umass at +25 a month ago…22.5 is a No Play for me. 4. Ohio @ Penn State (-6, O/U 44.5) PSU returns 4 starters on defense…1 starter on the Offensive Line…and Matt McGloin…Ohio Returns 5 All Mac Players, Tyler Tettleton, and 8 defensive players. Ohio is the better team and although 100k fans will be against them in Happy Valley an entire nation is rooting for them. Bobcats cover the 6. Play Ohio +6. 5. Miami @ Ohio St. (-24.5, O/U 48) Braxton has looked amazing in practice and Urban Meyer loves to run it up and has some revenge in play after the debacle at against Miami when he was the coach of Florida; even though they won 34 – 12. Miami can’t run so I expect Zac Dysert to air it out to score enough points to push this game to over. As Stu Finer would say “I like the HIGH…we are going HIGHHHH.” Play Over 48. 6. Buffalo @ Georgia (-37.5, O/U 54) Buffalo will not score in this game; so will Murray and company put up 6 touchdowns? Yes. Play Georgia – 37.5. 7. Iowa @ NIU in Chicago (+10, O/U 50.5) This line has moved from 7 to 10 and I think the 10 point spread is pretty accurate. I do see value in the under in this game as I have never been a huge Lynch fan and NIU will have a completely new starting 5 on the offensive line this year. NIU D returns 8 and should be improved and have the ability to slow down a mediocre Iowa offense. Play under 50.5. 8. Bowling Green @ Florida (-28.5, O/U 48) Florida is has been killed by injuries and typical SEC suspensions in the offseason; Bowling Green has flown under the radar and is a threat to win the MAC even though you won’t read that anywhere but here. I love what Matt Schilz does, I love the 10 returning starters and I love that BG got embarrassed at West Va last year and will be looking to show the nation then can hang on the road with the big boys. Oh and last year when Florida was favored by a similar line against Furman…they only won by 22. BG > Furman. One last point…is the old ball coach back? Because the Gators are rocking the 2 QB system again. Bowling Green +28.5. 9. Western Michigan @ Illinois (-10, O/U 50) We played WMU +14 last year and covered so why would we not play Alex Carder and the Broncos at +10? We aren’t…WMU only put up 63 on Beckman and Toledo last year and with the lack of depth of the illini defense I see the fast passed WMU Offense reeking havoc on Beckman’s new squad. Play WMU +10. 10. Toledo @ Arizona (-11.5, O/U 60.5) Rich Rod vs Dantin and Owens…both these offenses are going to be high tempo and both these defenses are inexperienced and not that good to begin with. Points are going to flying everywhere and this is going way over the posted 60.5. Play Over 60.5. LocksvilleUSA |
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MACvember: 2 - 0
Season: 22-17-2; +3.4 Units Temple @ Ohio (Ohio +3.5; O/U 47.5) This is a battle between the two top defenses in the MAC and both are fantastic against the run. Bernard Pierce hasn't practiced since October 14th and is nursing a tender Hammy. Temple's run D was gashed in the 2010 meeting for 204 yards and with the long week off the loss to Bowling Green they will be ready to shutdown the Bobcats; note that after Temple's last loss they answered with back to back shutouts of Ball State and Buffalo. Temple has also cashed the under in all 7 FBS games this year. Play Under 47.5 - LocksvilleUSA |
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MAC n Chee$e Week 1: 3 – 1 – 1; up 1.9 units MAC n Chee$e Week 1: 3 – 1 – 1; up 1.9 units MAC n Chee$e Week 2: 3 – 1; up 1.9 units MAC n Chee$e Week 3: 2 – 2; down .2 units MAC n Chee$e Week 4: 2 – 2; down .2 units MAC n Chee$e Week 5: 4 – 2; up 1.8 units MAC n Chee$e Week 6: 2 – 2; down .2 units MAC n Chee$e Week 7: 1 – 2 - 1; down 1.2 units MAC n Chee$e Week 8: 2 – 2; down .2 units Season: 19-14-2; +3.6 Units If only Buffalo could kick an extra point with 14 seconds left and we would’ve been three and one. This week it all turns around…gotta end Locktober on top. 1. Central Michigan @ Akron (Akron +7, O/U 51) CMU will take advantage of the weak Zips pass defense just like Ohio did last week. Chips Big. Play CMU – 7. 2. Bowling Green @ Kent State (KSU +3.5, O/U 39.5) Kent State’s offense had an average week last week…yea they were on bye…until KSU can prove they can score we are either playing under or fading them…today we are fading them. Play BGSU -3.5. 3. Ball State @ Western Michigan (WMU -12.5, O/U 58) The WMU offense is in shambles without Greg Peterson…he has been out the past two week s and is out again today. Ball State is playing well and will control this game with their run offense. Play Ball State +12.5. 4. Buffalo @ Miami (Miami -4.5, O/U 48.5) Buffalo could run away with this game however the Redhawks are playing well lately and they have the better defense…I am taking the Bulls and the points because of the lack of running game Miami has; I don’t see them being able to hold a lead if they get one. Play Buffalo +4.5. 1. Central Michigan @ Akron (Akron +7, O/U 51) - Play CMU - 7 2. Bowling Green @ Kent State (KSU +3.5, O/U 39.5) - Play BGSU - 3.5 3. Ball State @ Western Michigan (WMU -12.5, O/U 58) - Play Ball State +12.5 4. Buffalo @ Miami (Miami -4.5, O/U 48.5) - Play Buffalo +4.5 - LocksvilleUSA |
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MAC n Chee$e Week 1: 3 – 1 – 1; up 1.9 units
MAC n Chee$e Week 2: 3 – 1; up 1.9 units MAC n Chee$e Week 3: 2 – 2; down .2 units MAC n Chee$e Week 4: 2 – 2; down .2 units MAC n Chee$e Week 5: 4 – 2; up 1.8 units MAC n Chee$e Week 6: 2 – 2; down .2 units MAC n Chee$e Week 7: 1 – 2 - 1; down 1.2 units Season: 17-12-2; +3.8 Units Got screwed on a late kick return in the Toledo game and WMU decided to take the 2nd half off and let Harnish run wild. Let’s forget that and move on to week 7. 1. Northern Illinois @ Buffalo (Buffalo +14; O/U 62) The NIU Defense has stepped up the last two weeks and amateurs would attribute that to them improving as a unit…The real reasons are is that they have been at home the past two games, they played Kent State in one of those games, and per the NIU announcers last weekend the defense gets fired up and plays with much more intensity when wearing the black uni’s. NIU’s defense has given up 48, 49, and 45 points on the road this year. Look for Chazz AnderSTUD and the Bulls offense to bounce back after that debacle to Temple and the tornado winds and for them to put up points against an NIU Secondary allowing an 11.1 Yards/Attempt on the road. Buffalo can’t stop the run so don’t worry about NIU scoring. Play Over 62. 2. Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan (EMU +12; O/U 57) Two Starting O-Linemen on each side are questionable; Greg Peterson missed the NIU game last week and which resulted in 4 NIU sacks. In addition the Bronco defense was embarrassed last week and will look for revenge in the Battle for the State of Michigan. This game has gone under 4 of the last 5 years…points will be tough…Take the Low. Play Under 57. 3. Central Michigan @ Ball State (Ball St. -2.5; O/U 57) The road team has won the last four in this matchup and CMU will have a huge advantage in the passing game however this game will be determined by turnovers. Also CMU is 0-4 on the road this year. No Play. 4. Temple @ Bowling Green (BGSU + 13.5; O/U 49) I think Bowling Green is able to pass enough to keep it close against the Bernard Pierce’s; would love to have 14.5 in this game. It was a 1 point affair with BGSU as a 20.5 point dog last year. No Play. 5. Ohio @ Akron (Akron +14.5; O/U 52.5) Akron is playing with revenge off a bye week against the Bobcats this weekend at home. Last year on extended rest the Zips were 2-0 ATS. The Zips will take advantage of a weak Ohio secondary, 8.2 Yards/Attempt allowed on the road, and will be able to keep this game close. Play Akron +14.5. 6. Miami @ Toledo (Toledo -16.5; O/U 49.5) We got lucky with a Redhawk cover last week as they were out-gained by Kent State. Toledo is rolling and will be playing with a unique quadruple revenge angle in the Glass Bowl on Saturday. Toledo will be looking to revenge last year’s loss to Miami…and also please the Alumni after loses in their last 3 homecoming games. I look for the 12 senior starters to rally the troops for a decisive win this weekend in their last homecoming game. Let just hope the homecoming jinx is an anomaly not a trend. Play Toledo – 16.5. PICKS: 1. Northern Illinois @ Buffalo (Buffalo +14; O/U 62) - Play Over 62 2. Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan (EMU +12; O/U 57) - Play Under 57 3. Central Michigan @ Ball State (Ball St. -2.5; O/U 57) - No Play 4. Temple @ Bowling Green (BGSU + 13.5; O/U 49) - No Play 5. Ohio @ Akron (Akron +14.5; O/U 52.5) - Play Akron +14.5 6. Miami @ Toledo (Toledo -16.5; O/U 49.5) - Play Toledo -16.5 -LocksvilleUSA |
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MAC n Chee$e Week 1: 3 – 1 – 1; up 1.9 units
MAC n Chee$e Week 2: 3 – 1; up 1.9 units MAC n Chee$e Week 3: 2 – 2; down .2 units MAC n Chee$e Week 4: 2 – 2; down .2 units MAC n Chee$e Week 5: 4 – 2; up 1.8 units MAC n Chee$e Week 6: 2 – 2; down .2 units Season: 16-10-1; +5.0 Units I am eating MAC n Chee$e and its Locktober…this can only translate to a huge week this weekend for the MAC n Chee$e. 1. Toledo @ Bowling Green (BGSU +7; O/U 60) How can you have the battle of I-75 rivalry winner not receive the Peace Pipe Trophy? It is a shame however the history relic has been replaced with the ‘Battle of I-75 Trophy’ which is basically a road sign…weak sauce. Toledo came out fired up for this game last year and embarrassed Bowling Green on a Mid Week ESPN2 showcase. Toledo is clearly the better squad and the BGSU offense will not be able to keep up with the Toledo. Take the Rockets. Play Toledo -7. 2. Buffalo @ Temple (Temple -21; O/U 48.5) Brutal Matchup for the Buffalo run D…however 21 is just too much to lay here. No Play. 3. Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan (CMU -12.5; O/U 52.5) CMU dominated EMU last year and shutdown their running game. The CMU offense has picked up the pace and as long as Ryan Radcliff doesn’t start hitting EMU defenders across the middle they cover the twelve and a hook easy. Also note two of EMU starting Offensive linemen have knee injuries and are game time decisions. Play CMU -12.5. 4. Miami @ Kent State (Kent St. +3.5; O/U 39.5) Battle of one win teams…Miami got some confidence last week with a nice come back against the cadets…Kent State is averaging 3.1 yards per pass and 171 yards of offense. Redhawks cover the Chalk. Miami -3.5. 5. Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois (NIU +1; O/U 69.5) I bet Western at -2 early in the week and they are now only a 1 point favorite...needless to say I still love them. I was very impressed by the dual threat running attack of Carder and Drake WMU used to dismantle BGSU last week and we all know NIU can’t stop anybody except for Kent State. Play WMU -1. 6. Ball State @ Ohio (Ohio -14.5; O/U 57.5) I think Ball State covers this spread however too many questions surrounding their injured secondary to make a play on this game. Plus Solich always screws me. No Play. 1. Toledo @ Bowling Green (BGSU +7; O/U 60) - Play Toledo -7 2. Buffalo @ Temple (Temple -21; O/U 48.5) - No play 3. Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan (CMU -12.5; O/U 52.5) - Play CMU - 12.5 4. Miami @ Kent State (Kent St. +3.5; O/U 39.5) - Play Miami -3.5 5. Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois (NIU +1; O/U 69.5) - Play WMU -1 6. Ball State @ Ohio (Ohio -14.5; O/U 57.5) - No Play ****Akron is on a Bye Week - LocksvilleUSA |
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Florida International is playing Akron; sorry for the typo...I had it right in my write up just mistyped it in the header.
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Toledo's run D against Temple was impressive and the past history of this matchup have all been blowouts.
If I had to bet I would play Miami and NC State; I just don't see a significant enough of an edge. CMU is not a good football team. |
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MAC n Chee$e Week 1: 3 – 1 – 1; up 1.9 units
MAC n Chee$e Week 2: 3 – 1; up 1.9 units MAC n Chee$e Week 3: 2 – 2; down .2 units MAC n Chee$e Week 4: 2 – 2; down .2 units MAC n Chee$e Week 5: 4 – 2; up 1.8 units Season: 14-8-1; +5.2 Units Good weekend and great start to Locktober although I knew I should have stayed away from the Huskies; lesson learned. 1. Army @ Miami (Miami +2.5; O/U 48) I really think Miami wins this game because Army is so bad on the road; however the Redhawks 3rd Efficiency and Dysert tossing interceptions make this a no play. If Boucher was starting the Redhawks cash easily…look for Dysert to get pulled if he struggles early and make a play on the Redwaks in the second half. No Play 2. Florida Atlantic @ Akron (Akron +19; O/U 51.5) I still love this Akron team and they are continuing to improve…for them to be getting 19 at InfoCision Stadium is a disrespect to my Zips…however FIU’s offense has the potential put up points and could cover that number. No Play. 3. Temple @ Ball State (Ball State +8.5; O/U 49.5) Temple heads into Scheumann Stadium for the Ball State Homecoming Game. Temple is coming off an embarrassing loss to Toledo in which they killed themselves on turnovers. This will not happen again as the team is refocused and facing a Ball State defense which gives up over 460 yards/game. Also 5 Ball State Cornerbacks are listed as questionable or worse to do the pounding Oklahoma doled out this past weekend. Temple rights the horse…Play Temple -8.5. 4. Bowling Green @ Western Michigan (WMU – 10; O/U 60.5) Even though Bowling Green got lit up by West Va I like this squad and like their pass defense against Alex Carder and the fighting Cubit’s. Bowling Green is playing with revenge here and WMU is due for a let down here after their lock of a win last week against UConn. We’ll probably need the points but not all 10. Play BGST +10 5. Eastern Michigan @ Toledo (Toledo -21; O/U51.5) Toledo’s run defense will shutdown EMU’s Offense and the Rockets will roll. Having covered this matchup the last 4 years Toledo will easily make it 5 in a row. Toledo in a laugher… Play Toledo -21. 6. Central Michigan @ NC State (NC State -10.5; O/U 53.5) CMU should be able to have some success in the passing game; probably enough to hang around for a while; long enough to make me nervous if I picked NC State. No Play. 7. Ohio @ Buffalo (Buffalo +8.5; O/U 52.5) Same reason I went with Tennessee last week is the reason Ohio is the play this week. Tyler Tettleton should go nuts in a blow out Bobcats victory. Play Ohio -8.5 8. Kent State @ Northern Illinois (NIU – 17; O/U 52) Kent State has no offense and their defense has the potential to stop NIU a few times. NIU has no defense but if there is any time for them to show up its at home against Kent State. I am clueless…No play. 1. Army @ Miami (Miami +2.5; O/U 48) - No Play 2. Florida Atlantic @ Akron (Akron +19; O/U 51.5) - No Play 3. Temple @ Ball State (Ball State +8.5; O/U 49.5) Play Temple -8.5 4. Bowling Green @ Western Michigan (WMU – 10; O/U 60.5) - Play Bowling Green +10 5. Eastern Michigan @ Toledo (Toledo -21; O/U51.5) Play Toledo -21 6. Central Michigan @ NC State (NC State -10.5; O/U 53.5) - No Play 7. Ohio @ Buffalo (Buffalo +8.5; O/U 52.5) Play Ohio -8.5 8. Kent State @ Northern Illinois (NIU – 17; O/U 52) - No Play -LocksvilleUSA |
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Laroja: CMU is bad, they have no idea what to do at QB and they won't be able to stop NIU....I think they will put up some points however not enough to matter.
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LocksvilleUSA | 5 |
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MAC n Chee$e Week 1: 3 – 1 – 1; up 1.9 units
MAC n Chee$e Week 2: 3 – 1; up 1.9 units MAC n Chee$e Week 3: 2 – 2; down .2 units MAC n Chee$e Week 4: 2 – 2; down .2 units Season: 10-6-1; +3.4 Units MAC n Chee$e started out hot last week with two easy winners then Ohio screwed me by wearing the white jerseys and I guess Miami is really affected by the coaching change…its over…we are ready to roll in week 5…WELCOME TO LOCKTOBER! 1. Toledo @ Temple (Temple -7.5; O/U 50) Huge battle in the MAC and could be a preview of the MAC Conference Championship…I think the line is a little is pretty good here and I am willing to sit back, relax, and enjoy this gem of a conference game. No Play. 2. Buffalo @ Tennessee (Tenn -28; O/U 53.5) Tennessee will be fired up after the loss to Florida; UConn has the worst QB in the league put up over 200 yards through the air against the Bulls Defense…Tyler Bray is going to go nuts. Love Rocky Top Large in this game. Play Tennessee -28. 3. Akron @ Eastern Michigan (EMU -9.5; O/U 48) Eastern Michigan should not be favored by 9.5 point to anybody not even Akron; a team they have lost to in 2009 and 2008. The Akron Offense is coming around and I also like the way their run Defense is shaping up for this matchup. This is the standard case where Vegas does not know the MAC. Take the points and the Zips. Play Akron +9.5. 4. Cincinnati @ Miami (Miami +14; O/U 56) Redhawks can’t stop the run; Cincy can’t stop the pass. This game goes high above the above the total as both teams offensive strengths are the other team’s defensive weaknesses. Also note these teams are a combined 5-2 to the OVER this year. Take the HIGH. Play on OVER 56. 5. Kent St. @ Ohio (Ohio -16.5; O/U 47) Huge revenge game here for Ohio after Kent State ruined the Bobcats MAC Championship Title Game Dreams last year. I like Ohio large but 16.5 is too much chalk for me to eat. No Play. 6. Bowling Green @ West Virginia (West Va -20; O/U 60.5) Both these teams love to chuck the rock…and you didn’t know West Va put up 463 yards passing on the Mad Hatter. This game will go way over the number. Play Over 60.5 7. Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan (CMU +8.5; O/U 59) NIU needs to find a defense…or find an inept offense…I am going to play against CMU until the Odds Makers figure out they are awful. NIU wins this game going away. Play NIU -8.5. 8. Western Michigan @ Connecticut (UCONN -3; O/U 44.5) Western Michigan is a little banged up of the offensive line however they were able to piece it together last week and with a full week of practice should be ready for a trip to Hartford. The Broncos will also be helped out since two of UConn’s linebackers are out and top corner Blidi Wreh-Wilson is out; his replacement, Gary Wilburn, has made two career starts and last week replacing Wilson was burned for a 45 yard pass and was flagged for a PI in the end zone…AGAINST BUFFALO; the same Bulls team that outgained UConn. Alex Carder should have a huge day as Western Michigan pulls the upset. Play WMU +3. 9. Ball State @ Oklahoma (Oklahoma -37.5; O/U 60) That is a ton of points; too much for my blood. No Play. 1. Toledo @ Temple (Temple -7.5; O/U 50) – No Play 2. Buffalo @ Tennessee (Tenn -28; O/U 53.5) - Play Tennessee -28 3. Akron @ Eastern Michigan (EMU -9.5; O/U 48) - Play Akron +9.5 4. Cincinnati @ Miami (Miami +14; O/U 56) Play - Over 56 5. Kent St. @ Ohio (Ohio -16.5; O/U 47) – No Play 6. Bowling Green @ West Virginia (West Va -20; O/U 60.5) - Play Over 60.5 7. Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan (CMU +8.5; O/U 59) – Play NIU -8.5 8. Western Michigan @ Connecticut (UCONN -3; O/U 44.5) - Play WMU +3 9. Ball State @ Oklahoma (Oklahoma -37.5; O/U 60) – No Play -LocksvilleUSA |
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MAC n Chee$e Week 1: 3 – 1 – 1; up 1.9 units:
MAC n Chee$e Week 2: 3 – 1; up 1.9 units: MAC n Chee$e Week 3: 2 – 2; down .2 units: Season: 8-4-1; +3.6 Units Sorry for the delay on the MAC n Chee$e this week; was off for my Bday on Wednesday and was busy with my day job the past two days. I have received some ill comments however I didn’t want to release picks just to release them…we need stone cold LOCKS. 1. Central Michigan @ Michigan St (MSU -21.5; O/U 49.5) I am going to play the chalk in the game...MSU will be fired up after the loss to ND and looking to avenge the 2009 loss to CMU. Stand-in Dan LeFevour isn’t storming out of the locker room for the Chips in this one…Sparty Large. Play MSU – 21.5. 2. Toledo @ Syracuse (Syracuse -2; O/U 56.5) I will be rooting for the Rockets in the one however only as a fan. Toledo has not been able to produce the turnovers their defense needs and the Syracuse quarterback doesn’t throw a lot of picks. No play. 3. Eastern Michigan @ Penn State (PSU -28.4; O/U 46) I doubt Eastern Michigan scores in this game and the Penn State Offense isn’t lighting up the scoreboard either. Both teams have cashed under tickets in all of their games this season. Love the Low. Play Under 46. 4. Temple @ Maryland (Maryland -8; O/U 52.5) I would take this game if the Terps were favored by less than 7. I think their offensive firepower will prove too much but the chalk is a little too high for comfort. No Play. 5. Bowling Green @ Miami (Miami -3.5; O/U 52.5) Unbelievable losses suffer by both of these teams…if the Redhawks had decided to spy the Minny QB they win…if Bowling Green didn’t turn the ball over 6 times and then botch a last second PAT they beat Wyoming. The redhawks pass defense will be too much here and this number should be around -7. Play Miami -3.5. 6. Army @ Ball State (Ball State +4; O/U 50.5) Army is the better team if they can hold onto the ball. I think this one is close and decided by a late score. No Play. 7. Ohio @ Rutgers (Rutgers -4; O/U 51) Love getting points with the Bobcats here…their offense will be too much for the Scarlet Knights. Ohio is the real deal and is still excited after wearing the black jerseys last week - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAOfNEBZbE4&feature=player_embedded . Play Ohio +4. 8. Western Michigan @ Illinois (Illinois -13.5; O/U 52) I will probably bet WMU small but I can’t figure out a solid argument for either side. I think the Illni will be able to run all over WMU however laying almost 2 TD’s is a little too steep. No Play. 9. UConn @ Buffalo (Buffalo +9.5; O/U 46) These teams are bad; I think UConn wins this game although the rowdy Buffalo crowds will be out for Homecoming; at some point their QB will toss a TD. No Play. 1. Central Michigan @ Michigan St (MSU -21.5; O/U 49.5) Play MSU -21.5 2. Toledo @ Syracuse (Syracuse -2; O/U 56.5) No Play 3. Eastern Michigan @ Penn State (PSU -28.4; O/U 46) Play Under 46 4. Temple @ Maryland (Maryland -8; O/U 52.5) No Play 5. Bowling Green @ Miami (Miami -3.5; O/U 52.5) Play Miami -3.5 6. Army @ Ball State (Ball State +4; O/U 50.5) No Play 7. Ohio @ Rutgers (Rutgers -4; O/U 51) Play Ohio +4 8. Western Michigan @ Illinois (Illinois -13.5; O/U 52) No Play 9. UConn @ Buffalo (Buffalo +9.5; O/U 46) No Play |
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MAC n Chee$e Week 1: 3 – 1 – 1; up 1.9 units:
MAC n Chee$e Week 2: 3 – 1; up 1.9 units: Season: 6-2-1; +3.8 Units MAC n Chee$e rolled through week 2 with easy winners with Temple, Toledo, and LouLaf; NIU really disappointed me with their performance in Lawrence as the Jawhawks size seemed to really affect the outcome of that game. Friday 9/16: 1. Boise St. @ Toledo (Toledo +20, O/U 60) I think the line on this game is pretty accurate; however both teams will be able to throw the ball at will and Boise will be fired up to keep scoring to gain votes in the polls by showing they can crush a team that should’ve beaten Ohio State if it wasn’t for the brutal officiating. This game went over last year in Boise by 13 and I see a similar outcome…route for the HIGH. Play Over 60. Saturday 9/17: 2. Eastern Michigan @ Michigan (Michigan -28.5; O/U 63) EMU is going to run; Michigan is going to run…no defense will be played…however is there enough time to hit the Over 63? I am not sure and I sure as hell don’t want to bet that Michigan will cover the spread coming off the emotional win last week. No Play. 3. Wyoming @ Bowling Green (BG – 9.5; O/U 54) The Bowling Green run defense is suspect and Wyoming will look to exploit that. BG does have the advantage at QB and I see them winning this game however 9.5 is a little too much and not enough to take the Cowboys. No Play. 4. Penn State @ Temple (Temple +7; O/U 44.5) Temple is good enough to win this game if they can keep PSU out of the end zone and make their kicker do work; however PSU has dominated this series and will most likely make enough plays in the passing game to pull this out late; a touchdown seems about right. No Play. 5. Central Michigan @ Western Michigan (Wmich -7.5; O/U 55.5) Western has lost the last 5 games in the most intense interstate rivalry in the state of Michigan; yea I said it. Last year WMU fumbled the ball 5 times and Ryan Interception Radcliff failed to live up to his nickname as he led a late drive for a 4 point home win. Western will be fired up to end the 5 game losing streak and win the turnover battle because I can’t see Radcliff going pick free in this game two years in a row. Play WMU -7.5 6. Northern Illinois @ Wisconsin (Scony – 16.5; O/U 64) This game had the same line in 2009 and NIU backdoor covered en route to losing the game by 8. NIU coach Dave Doeren knows was Scony’s D Coordinator last year and should have some insight on the Badgers. Scony’s size will get them the W but Chandler Harnish is having a dream season and 16.5 points is a lot to give him. This one falls close to the number. No Play. 7. Akron @ Cincinnati (Cincy -34.5; O/U 56.5) Akron finally scored last week and will look for their first touchdown this weekend and they will get it against the porous Cincy Pass Defense. Akron has kept this game close in the past however their run D is brutal and Cincy should run away with this game; however. 34.5 is too much chalk to eat. No Play. 8. Miami @ Minnesota (Minny -5; O/U 46.5) Minny lost to New Mexico State…Miami played tight with Missou and actually outplayed the Tigers. Dysert is going to have a huge game against the Gophers pass defense. Thank your bookie for the points because the Red Hawks are winning this game outright. Play Miami +5. 9. Marshall @ Ohio (Ohio -3; O/U 48) These teams love playing tight games in the 20’s…no thanks. No Play. 10. Kent State @ Kansas State (Kansas State -17.5; O/U 46.5) The battle of KSU’s…love Kent States run Defense going up against the Kansas State rushing offense. Love Kent States brutal Offense…Love the Low. Play Under 46.5. 11. Buffalo @ Ball State (Ball State -4.5; O/U 52) Buffalo is not as good as I thought they were last week. Ball State isn’t that great either. When these teams matchup it’s usually a blowout however I have no clue who is going to blowout who. No Play. 1. Boise St. @ Toledo (Toledo +20, O/U 60) – Play Over 60 2. Eastern Michigan @ Michigan (Michigan -28.5; O/U 63) – No Play 3. Wyoming @ Bowling Green (BG – 9.5; O/U 54) – No Play 4. Penn State @ Temple (Temple +7; O/U 44.5) – No Play 5. Central Michigan @ Western Michigan (Wmich -7.5; O/U 55.5) Western Mich -7.5 6. Northern Illinois @ Wisconsin (Scony – 16.5; O/U 64) – No Play 7. Akron @ Cincinnati (Cincy -34.5; O/U 56.5) – No Play 8. Miami @ Minnesota (Minny -5; O/U 46.5) – Miami +5 9. Marshall @ Ohio (Ohio -3; O/U 48) – No Play 10. Kent State @ Kansas State (Kansas State -17.5; O/U 46.5) – Under 46.5 11. Buffalo @ Ball State (Ball State -4.5; O/U 52) – No Play -LocksvilleUSA |
LocksvilleUSA | 1 |
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MAC n Chee$e Week 1: 3 – 1 – 1; up 1.9units:
After a solid week one in the MAC and Buffalo looking like they may actually field a team this year we proceed to week 2. There are 6 games on the slate including the first MAC Conference game of the year so let’s get ready for some Lights, Camera, MACtion! 1. Central Michigan @ Kentucky; (Kentucky -10.5, O/U 47.5) Line for this game opened at 13 and has been bet down to -10.5 after the embarrassing performance by Kentucky on week 1. Neither of these teams are overly impressive however I do think the Kentucky QB Morgan Newton will play better and minimize the turnovers enough to win this game but I am just too unsure on these teams to submit a bet. No Play 2. Toledo @ Ohio State; (Ohio St. -18, O/U 50) I watched the Ohio State Akron game on Saturday and never feared losing my bet because Akron only had one semi-scoring chance; however, this week the Rockets are coming to town and with revenge from a 2009 38-0 waxing. This line opened at 20 and has been bet down to 18. I love the rockets in this situation; their defense the past 2 years have been turnover sharks and the inexperienced Ohio State offense will give a few and allow the dynamic Toledo Offensive. This game is also game has OSU in a ‘look ahead’ position with their match up with Miami (FL) next week. Love the Rockets. Bet: Toledo +18. 3. Temple @ Akron; (Akron +14.5, O/U 45) Temple has won straight up and covered the spread against the Zips over the past four meetings. I look for a repeat of last year where Temple runs all over the Zips (173 rushing yards differential) and the Akron Offensive to struggle to get the ball on the Temple side of the field. Temple won 30-0 at home last year and they have no fear of InfoCision Stadium – Summa Field. Bet: Temple – 14.5. 4. Ball State @ South Florida (South Florida -19.5, O/U 50.5) I don’t think Southern Florida is that good to win by 21 however their D seems solid enough to hold Ball State down. I think the line is good here. No play. 5. Northern Illinois @ Kansas (Kansas +6, O/U 60) Kansas allowed 325 yards passing to McNeese State; Chandler Harnish is going to have a large day. Kansas likes to run the ball however NIU just played a running team in Army and was close to even on total rushing yards despite playing scrubs for most of the 2nd half of this game. NIU gets up large early and runs away this one. Bet: NIU -6. 6. Louisiana Lafayette @ Kent State (Kent St. -9.5, O/U 51) I have no idea how Kent State is favored in this game. LouLaf put up 34 on OK State and killed Kent State in 2009. LouLaf has the better QBs and offense and I think both of these defenses are brutal. Run with the Ragin Cajun’s; Bet ULL +9.5. 1. Central Michigan @ Kentucky; No Play 2. Toledo @ Ohio State; Bet Toledo +18 3. Temple @ Akron; Bet Temple -15 4. Ball State @ South Florida; No Play 5. Northern Illinois @ Kansas; Bet NIU -6 6. Louisiana Lafayette @ Kent State; Bet ULL +9.5 |
LocksvilleUSA | 2 |
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Buffalo is going to be BAD this year.
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baller909 | 4 |
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Easy cover for the CLAWFENCE!
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LocksvilleUSA | 5 |
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Welcome to the MAC n Chee$e…this will be a blog of analysis and suggested plays for every MAC game this year. I find that by focusing on one non BCS Conference and reading the local papers gives great insight that the books and majority of gamblers miss or probably don’t even care about therefore creating a gambling advantage. I will update my season earnings and probably breakout Conference and Non Conference Results.
Week 1: 1. Bowling Green @ Idaho; (Idaho -7.5; O/U 53) This is actually a revenge game for Bowling Green as they lost to the Vandals in the 2009 Humanitarian Bowl 43-42 on a 2 pt Conversion. The Vandals are starting an inexperienced quarterback and a freshman center this year and should look to focus more on the ground game then in the past. BG has their starting QB back and leading receiver Kamar Jorden. BG is going to air it out in the Kibbie and I do not think Idaho will be able to keep pace. Also note this line opened at -8.5 and has dropped to -7 at some books; mine still offers it at -7.5. Bowling Green +7.5 2. Miami @ Missouri; (Missou -19.5; O/U 47.5) Yes I will be referring to them as Miami; if Miami (FL) ends up playing a MAC opponent in a bowl game they will be referred as ‘Miami (FL)’. Miami got rolled by Missou last year; too many questions on how good this Missou team will actually be – no play. 3. Akron @ Ohio State (Ohio St. -33; O/U 48) Akron was bad last year, they will be bad again this year and start off with an Ohio St. squad who will be fired up and looking to silence doubters…Ohio St wins Big. Pick: Ohio St - 33 4. Kent State @ Alabama (Alabama -38; O/U 45.5) Kent State had one of the top rushing defenses last year however they are replacing 6 starters from that unit. 38 points is a large number - no play. 5. Western Michigan @ Michigan (Michigan -14; O/U 61) WMU can’t stop the run; Michigan can’t stop anybody. This game is going way over. Pick Over 61. 6. Buffalo @ Pittsburgh (Pitt -31; O/U 52) Buffalo is bad and the Stache is gone from Pitt; should be safe to bet the panthers now. Also the Bulls lost all four members of their starting secondary from last year. Pick: Pitt -31. 7. Ball State @ Indiana (Indiana -6; O/U 55.5) I don’t see either of these teams being very good. Going to stay away but if you are betting take the points because this will probably be a field goal game. 8. Army @ Northern Illinois (NIU -10; O/U 55) Love NIU this year and they are going to put up points on the Black Knights. I don’t see how Army can keep up. Pick: NIU -10 9. Ohio @ New Mexico State (New Mexico St +7; O/U 52) The Bobcats caved at the end of the 2010 season while New Mexico St just sucked. Frank Solich always finds away to burn me in these type of games and there is no way I can beat on New Mexico St. in this situation. No play. Summary: 1. Bowling Green @ Idaho; (Idaho -7.5; O/U 53) Pick: Bowling Green +7.5 2. Miami @ Missouri; (Missou -19.5; O/U 47.5) Pick: No Play 3. Akron @ Ohio State (Ohio St. -33; O/U 48) Pick: Ohio State - 33 4. Kent State @ Alabama (Alabama -38; O/U 45.5) Pick: No Play 5. Western Michigan @ Michigan (Michigan -14; O/U 61) Pick: Over 61 6. Buffalo @ Pittsburgh (Pitt -31; O/U 52) Pick: Pitt -31 7. Ball State @ Indiana (Indiana -6; O/U 55.5) Pick: No Play 8. Army @ Northern Illinois (NIU -10; O/U 55) Pick: NIU -10 9. Ohio @ New Mexico State (New Mexico St +7; O/U 52) Pick: No Play - LocksvilleUSA |
LocksvilleUSA | 5 |
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Phenomenal horse. I just don't think she will hold up over the distance. This is a strong field...kind of the opposite of the Derby.
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LocksvilleUSA | 4 |
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Joyful Victory, Class of this race and sitting on the inside…should see her running with the boys in the Preakness. Lilacs and Lace and Summer Soiree will get out quick and take the early lead from the 2 and 3 positions. Both Phillies want to be in the front and this will be there down fall as I see them tiring around the turn and fading in the stretch. Kathmanblu, ran well with Leparoux as the mount…solid horse and will finish in the money. No drive in last race…hopefully that was more Alan Garcia then the horse. Suave de Faire is an interesting long shot…could sneak in for a show with a late kick and has a place and two shows in her dirt track races all gaining over the last furlong. This race will be her 5th Jockey so she the new ride should not be a factor. Keep in mind she will have blinders on…could affect Zazu or Kathmanblu if she gets spooked. Zazu is a good horse and has finished better then Plum Pretty a couple times. Steady horse and I don’t see any evidence of a late kick that will scare any of the finishers and she should run around second or third and then crush your dreams as she fades late. Her Smile, Love seeing Go Go Gomez at 20-1…just not on Her Smile…distance is too much…workouts have been subpar…non factor. Bouquet Booth, vanilla results thus far…weak workouts and only success is starting on the outside and not in the traffic…will probably surprise me because I am missing something but I am staying away. Daisy Devine needs a slow pace…she won’t find one in this race. Street Storm has never ran more than a mile. She has no chance. Holy Heavens will want to hang back and make a late run with Plum Pretty…looks a little uncomfortable on the outside. Lost to Joyful Victory the last two times out and workouts are unimpressive. Plum Pretty, I love this horse on the outside with a late kick. She is not afraid to run wide. Look for the late close to finish in the money. St. John’s River, good closer…likes the outside…ran well with Napravnik as the mount…at 30-1 well worth a shot. Picks: Joyful Victory, Kathmanblu, Plum Pretty, St John’s River Long Shot: Suave de Faire |
LocksvilleUSA | 4 |
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I only bet the KC game....thanks for the tip!
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GameHunter | 15 |
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