Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sorry about the double post gentlemen...
|
Covers | 130 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by rick3117:
One of the worst Offensive lines(Chic), against one of the best D- Lines(Det.) Cutler will not finish this game. The running game will be stuffed in the backfield. There will be no offensive production, save for a few dumps cutler will be able to get off before he gets pummeled into the ground.
Anyone that has the Bears in this one is probably a homer, insane, or has not seen the Bears play this season. Sure their D is still pretty stout, but they are not as hard as they have been in years past, and Cutler would be better off if their offensive line was comprised of the teletubbies.
Parlay
Det -6 + Over 46 100 to win 260
Straight Play
Det -6 330 to win 300
Good luck Detroit backers
Mike Martz loves the screen and Forte is a monster out of the backfield. How do you slow/stop a pass rush? You get the QB out of the pocket, run a bunch of screens, hand it off to your running back (No delayed hand offs though), or throw a bunch of quick slants. All of which, in watching the Bears, I've seen a lot of. These are two division rivals. They play each other twice a year and I don't see anyone on the Lions team that wasn't there last year. Even if Fairly plays, he's not going to be conditioned to play at the level everyone is accustomed to seeing. I feel I am like the majority on this board. I've made a lot of money this year with the Lions, even though they've almost given me a heart attack in two of their 4 games. I've bought into this Lions team like the rest of the public, but this is even more of a reason I am hesitant to pull the trigger tonight. It's enough of an accomplishment to go 5-0, let alone 4-0-1 ATS. The Lions are not a sleeper team anymore... They're 1 of 2 undefeated teams and everyone has their eye on them. I wouldn't go as far as to say the Bears win this one outright, but I wouldn't bet against it either. This isn't going to be a big play for me either way. I already have Chicago teased to +12.5 (Teased w/ GB last night) for 2.5 units, but I'm willing to lay another unit (w/ the points) to watch the game. I think this game goes over too, but I'll stay away from the total. On second thought... There is a lot of value in a money line parlay with the Bears. So, my final plays are below; Teaser- Bears +12.5 (GB last night) 2.5 units, Chicago +6 (2 Units) & Parlay Bears ML +250 / Ov 48 (1 Unit pays 5.57 Units) Good Luck to All... PS... I'm not a Homer, Insane (Although my wife may disagree), & I have watched 3 Chicago games this year. But, I'm putting my neck on the line just like everyone else... That's what makes this fun! Good Luck rick3117. |
Covers | 130 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by rick3117:
One of the worst Offensive lines(Chic), against one of the best D- Lines(Det.) Cutler will not finish this game. The running game will be stuffed in the backfield. There will be no offensive production, save for a few dumps cutler will be able to get off before he gets pummeled into the ground.
Anyone that has the Bears in this one is probably a homer, insane, or has not seen the Bears play this season. Sure their D is still pretty stout, but they are not as hard as they have been in years past, and Cutler would be better off if their offensive line was comprised of the teletubbies.
Parlay
Det -6 + Over 46 100 to win 260
Straight Play
Det -6 330 to win 300
Good luck Detroit backers
Mike Martz loves the screen and Forte is a monster out of the backfield. How do you slow/stop a pass rush? You get the QB out of the pocket, run a bunch of screens, hand it off to your running back (No delayed hand offs though), or throw a bunch of quick slants. All of which, in watching the Bears, I've seen a lot of. These are two division rivals. They play each other twice a year and I don't see anyone on the Lions team that wasn't there last year. Even if Fairly plays, he's not going to be conditioned to play at the level everyone is accustomed to seeing. I feel I am like the majority on this board. I've made a lot of money this year with the Lions, even though they've almost given me a heart attack in two of their 4 games. I've bought into this Lions team like the rest of the public, but this is even more of a reason I am hesitant to pull the trigger tonight. It's enough of an accomplishment to go 5-0, let alone 4-0-1 ATS. The Lions are not a sleeper team anymore... They're 1 of 2 undefeated teams and everyone has their eye on them. I wouldn't go as far as to say the Bears win this one outright, but I wouldn't bet against it either. This isn't going to be a big play for me either way. I already have Chicago teased to +12.5 (Teased w/ GB last night) for 2.5 units, but I'm willing to lay another unit (w/ the points) to watch the game. I think this game goes over too, but I'll stay away from the total. On second thought... There is a lot of value in a money line parlay with the Bears. So, my final plays are below; Teaser- Bears +12.5 (GB last night) 2.5 units, Chicago +6 (2 Units) & Parlay Bears ML +250 / Ov 48 (1 Unit pays 5.57 Units) Good Luck to All... PS... I'm not a Homer, Insane (Although my wife may disagree), & I have watched 3 Chicago games this year. But, I'm putting my neck on the line just like everyone else... That's what makes this fun! Good Luck rick3117. |
Covers | 130 |
|
|
Another thing to look at... Pitts ML is only +120. I don't play a lot of money lines, but that seems low for a team getting 3 points. Good luck guys. |
Covers | 193 |
|
|
I'm a little concerned everyone is on USF, but I can't back Pitt here. I like Houston too, so I'm going to make tease (7 points). Final Play... Teaser USF +4/Houston -9.5 (2 Units) Good Luck to all... |
Covers | 193 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by babygus17:
new system....bet against all dennis erickson coached teams....the penalties asu gets week after week will make u batty My thoughts exactly... USC to win outright!! I think it was 2 weeks ago, on a Friday, Arizona State had over 10 penalties (accepted). I know it was over 100 yards worth. It seemed like every play there was a flag. Arizona State has no discipline. They will hand this game to a much more disciplined & talented USC team. Final Play... USC +3 (3 Units) Good Luck to All... |
Covers | 13 |
|
|
Vandy... Playing very tough right now. I'll ride this train until they prove me wrong. South Carolina plays to their competition. They have as long as I've watched them. Vandy will keep this one close... I look for an upset in this one. Vandy +16 (8 Units)- Largest play of the day! Good Luck to all... |
Covers | 11 |
|
|
Too many points to lay & I don't know enough about L. Tech this year (yet) other than they're 2-1 ATS... I wouldn't feel comfortable playing this game. Good Luck to those that do.... |
Covers | 12 |
|
|
East Carolina.... -14 (2 Units) Good Luck to All... |
Covers | 9 |
|
|
All over A&M... This line is climbing with 60% of the public on Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State has been getting a lot of publicity the last 3-4 years. Their program is no longer in the shadows of OU, while public perception of A&M is still shaky. I think they're making more headlines with the move to the SEC than their actual play. This is a classic Big 12 match-up (for the last time in the same conference). Last year A&M went on the road and was beat by a last minute field goal, so I'll follow the story "line" and make a large wager on A&M taking care of business on their turf. I like the under in this game too... A&M has a good defense, well balanced offense, & great special teams play. Besides Oklahoma's offense, they're average at best. A&M should have a couple key stops to keep this a touchdown game at least. Final Play... A&M (5 Units) & the Un 69.5 (2 Units) Good Luck to All... DrDogs & Bigdaddyhpd, at least I'm in good company!! (Extra good luck to you two!!) |
Covers | 34 |
|
|
Also... I really like taking a team (getting points) when the head coach was a DC within five years.
|
Covers | 86 |
|
|
I really like the Rams in this spot. A lot of people underestimate this Rams defense. They get after the quarterback and I'm not a Eli Manning fan when it comes to him being hurried. He makes a lot of mistakes. I think the Giants find themselves playing catch up early and not being able to run the ball as much as they originally plan. I look for Bradford to have a big game and the Rams defense to do much better stopping the run without having to worry about Vick in the backfield. The Rams held their own against the Eagles last week. Final Play... St. Louis +7 (2 Units) & a small parlay St. Louis & the Under (At least 1 or 2 MNF games have to go under and I think this sets up to be the first.) Good Luck to All... |
Covers | 86 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by jfratt23:
its all good dude... Like i said i want to bet LSU to stick with the trend, but i;m starting to think that this is Miss states game for the taking. Here is what i am worried about, the way the line has stuck true with all this action on LSU... I can make a case as well for MSU. I can see MSU dominating on offense in this one. They can move the ball and that is where LSU struggles. if they dont get the defense turnovers that allow for short fields, which i can easily see happening, MSU covers possibly with an outright win. Good luck Jfratt23 & Bankjob. I hope there's no hard feelings.
|
Covers | 126 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by jfratt23:
Thanks for taking time with that FoolTime. We appreciate your time.. I guess we should clarify further though... I dont know bankjob, but i will speak on his behalf when i say this... Such as last week and tomorrow night... Our theory applies to thursday night primetime football games, in which it is the only game to bet on, such as tomorrow nights game... You are correct if you add every game, but look at the red highlights in your post when there is only a single College FBALL game to bet on, on thursday night... i think it is 6-2 if i can add, a little off with my original 87% but ill take 75%, as i didnt spend my time actually looking up the games and calculating, i just remember cuz i took a massive beating betting against the public last year. I mean obviously if there is 6 games on thursday night we wouldnt expect the public to clean up on all of them. come on jfratt23- Typically, when someone is referencing a percentage that isn't fact based to stress a point, it's a multiple of 10 or a multiple of 5. You said 87%, which led me to believe there was some mathematical evidence to support your claim, or that you were pulling a figure out of your ass to give yourself some kind of authority over the subject. I went with the latter, but asked you to please show me what you were claiming, because what capper wouldn't want some insight on a trend so high? Like I said above in my previous post... You had my interest! Especially when the other guy jumped in and was supporting your claim with dates, teams, spreads, & results. (Come to find out more than half of those games he listed were not even Thursday night games.) I did some research of my own, like I do in every facet of life, to either confirm or dismiss this new found information. Contrary to what you may think, it didn't take long at all to find the information, as it was here on this very site. It also doesn't take long to type a couple paragraphs. The length came from giving you data to support my rebuttal. In fact, there are other holes in your theory, as well. Towards the end of the college football season the college football world shares the spotlight with the NFL. So, it isn't the only "Thursday night primetime football game" on tv. In digging a little deeper, I wasn't trying to put you, or anyone else for that matter, down on a personal level. I was simply poking holes in your 87% claim and even clarified it for you. There is something there... A trend. But, nothing else... Good luck to you again!! |
Covers | 126 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by jfratt23:
Bankjob answered for me... I monitored it last year all year... The public crushed on thursday almost every game. I will admit i am starting to think that miss st will cover this one though. I want to bet with the public like i did last week to continue the trend, but this one scares me.
14/25 is only 56%... |
Covers | 126 |
|
|
Let me start by saying... I can't stand it when people just pull shit out of their ass. We're all guilty of it, whether it be on this site or in our every day lives, but when it is something so unbelievable as "87% of favorites cover on Thursday nights" why would you further exemplify your foolishness or arrogance by pulling more shit out of your ass? Quote Originally Posted by bankjob:
MUST NOT WATCH ENOUGH.. I have used this play for 2 yrs now since I noticed the exact same thing its like they give the crack head a free sample on thursday then takee all his money the rest of the weekend.
9/9 auburn fav by 1 wins by 3 (There were 2 games this night)
9/16 ncstate fav -2 wins by 11
9/23 miami fav -4 win by 28
9/30 ok st fav -2.5 win by 3
10/05 mtenn fav -4 looses by 37** dog cov (Tuesday Night Game)
10/13 cent fl fav - 6.5 won by 21 (Wednesday Night Game)
10/20oregon -26.5 won by 47 (Wednesday Night Game)
10/27 boise fav -35.5 won by 29** dog cov (Wednesday Night Game)
11/02 mtenn -1.5 lost by 30** dog cov (Tuesday Night Game)
11/09 noill -11.5 won by 30 (Tuesday Night Game)
thats 70% winners right there!!
When you're dealing with statistics, always remember 2 things. 1)Always list your sources. 2) You can't omit or inject certain criteria that helps or doesn't help your case. Below is every Thursday night game that was on the board for 2010-2011. I used Covers.com (In the scoreboard section of NCAAF) to validate each game. Obviously different books may have different lines, but for this purpose a single source should get the point across. I've bolded the actual covers in "Red" for your review. Week 1 (09/02)- OHIST (-28), MTENN (-1), SOCAR (-13), IOWST (-4), UAB (-13), UTAH (-3)- P, USC (-20) Week 2 (09/09)- TEM (-7.5), AUB (-1) Week 3 (09/16)- NCST (-2) Week 4 (09/23)- MIAMI (-4) Week 5 (09/30)- OKLST (-2.5) Week 6 (10/07)- NEB (-11) Week 7 (10/14)- WVIRG (-10), KANST (-3) Week 8 (10/21)- ORE (-26.5) Week 9 (10/28)- FSU (-4.5) Week 10 (11/04)- OHIO (-16), VATCH (-13) Week 11 (11/11)- PITT (-6), UAB (-1.5) Week 12 (11/18)- WASH (-2), AIRFC (-18.5) Week 13 (11/25)- TXAM (-3) Week 14 (12/02)- ARZ (-4) For last season (10-11), favorites covered 56% of the time on Thursday nights. Not 87%, or the revised 70% bankjob claims. Bankjob, this isn't a personal attack, so please don't take it that way... I've been on this site for almost 3 years, but I have used this site for almost 6. There was a time that any information you found on this site was as true and as accurate as possible. Claims like bankjob's, although my assumption is most experienced cappers would know this claim is completely inaccurate, could sway rookies or less experienced cappers in making an illadvised play. This site is a helpful site and even when I'm not posting, I live on this site during football season. I just hope everyone gets as much out of it as I. Bankjob- I checked your numbers, not to throw you under the bus, but for the very slight chance there was something to your claim. I'd be willing to bet (no pun intended) if you could prove to any one of us that 87% of the time we could make a particular play and win, that play would be played week in and week out. Trust me, I watch enough football in 1 season to cover that of an average person's life. I've been in or around football my entire life!! I still haven't found a perfect method. I've come to the realization I will never find a perfect method. Hence the reason I joined this site. This is a place we can all come together no matter what side of the game we're on and share insight. I wish you the best of luck this week and the rest of the season. As for the line movement, the line I typically watch opened @ LSU -4, moved to -3.5 yesterday, & is now back @ -4 w/ the majority of the public on LSU. I think watching the lines is a great "part" of capping a game, but it will burn you if that's the only thing you look for. I think every capper has certain things they look for, but it never hurts to have a little luck on your side, as well. With what I've seen from Miss State, they remind me a lot of last years Auburn. They are very physical and can run the ball very well. Chris Relf can put some heat on the ball and as long as his receivers hold on to the ball they will be very successful against these LSU DBs. These are two SEC teams, cut from the same cloth... They recruit from the same area, the players have the same attributes, and are coached to contend in a very physical & fast conference. This is Mississippi State's best chance at beating LSU... When the talent pool is relatively close, give me the team with a chip on their shouders. LSU is coming into Starksville to not get beat. Mississippi State is leaving it all on the field with nothing to lose... Final Play is still Mississippi State +4 (5 Units) Good luck to All...
|
Covers | 126 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by jfratt23:
the public play covered 87% of thursday bets last year. Yes i watch a lot of football I call bullshit!! No offense to you personally... But please show me where you came up with this figure. I watch a lot of football... Probably too much!! I hope you prove me wrong, but just off the top of my head, I don't see how!! |
Covers | 126 |
|
|
LSU beat Oregon with the help of 5 turnovers. LSU looked more physical than Oregon, but I didn't need to watch the game to figure that one out. Miss State is cut from the same cloth as LSU and I see the home dog winning outright on Thursday night. I agree with 2 for tha money... I think it's obvious to see who Vegas wants you to put your money on. Too many people view this game on the surface alone. Mississippi State will come out strong... I look for them to upset LSU. Final Play- Mississippi State +4 (5 Units) Good Luck to All... |
Covers | 126 |
|
|
No mention of weather? I show a high of 73 with a 60% chance of rain? I'm not one to put all my eggs in one basket, but you have a young QB in his second start (2 QB's possibly) playing in the rain and in a hostile environment like Penn State, It's a long trip to PA from Alabama, only adding to the surreal mindset of a young player with a lot of pressure playing for a tradition layden school... I think 10 points is too much to lay here personally... The fact that the line hasn't moved a wink with the majority on Alabama only gives me more confidence. Richardson is a great back! I put him above Ingram any year the two shared snaps. But, Penn State has seen this team and Richardson less than a year ago. They'll stack the box and force Alabama to beat them in the air... I'd also take the under based on what I've mentioned above. I see a lot of punting in this one and Penn State's special teams coming up big. I wouldn't be suprised if Alabama is upset, but I think a cover is at least logical. Final Play- Penn State +10 (4 Units) & Parlay Penn St. +10 / Un 42 (1 Unit) Good Luck to All... |
Covers | 37 |
|
|
I think this is a field goal game. Ultimately, I think the Packers have the edge playing at home and have a better "play-making" defense, although I don't feel there will be much defense in this one. I think the NFL knows what they're doing pairing these two teams at the start of the season. I can't think of two better teams to start us off on a high scoring, edge of your seats type game. The only thing that keeps me from betting this one heavy is in my experience when all signs point to a high scoring affair, it generally comes in beneath the total. It's my first NFL play of the season and it will be a conservative one... Both teams have bettered themselves from last year... Both teams can score at will, while also having opprotunistic defenses ready to pounce. I think this game ends on a field goal (either missed or made), possibly even in overtime. I like a teaser in this situation, because I feel like it gives me a little insurance policy. Final play; Saints +10 / Ov 41.5 (2 Units) Good luck to all... |
Covers | 89 |
|
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.