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Quote Originally Posted by staf: https://killersports.com/mlb.py/query?sdql=M5%3D0+and+D&submit=S+D+Q+L+!&sid=guest Wow man, thanks! Would it be possible for you to run it for 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 also? |
irage | 83 |
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Quote Originally Posted by staf: https://killersports.com/mlb.py/query?sdql=%28p%3AM8%3C1+and+p%3AW%29+or+p%3AWOW&submit=S+D+Q+L+!&sid=guest Ok man since you seem to have taken Irage's place in this thread, here is a query for you: When the game is tied after 5 full innings, what % of the time does the DOG win the game? The dog must be dog at the beginning of the game. I need this info backtested going back as further as possible, a little 10 years would be fabulous. Just to be clear on the calculation, it needs to go like this: 100% = games tied after 5 full innings Dog win% = out of that 100% above Thanks!! |
irage | 83 |
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Irage... are you still alive? lol
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irage | 83 |
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replied to
Help Using Excel to find how many MLB series have 1 game won by the DOG
in Systems & Strategies
Thanks. I actually just thought of something. We should look at games that were tied after 6, 7, 8, or 9 innings, and look at the % of teams that won those games (Road teams, favs, dogs, etc?)
I think there would be value here in live betting. When games are tied late in the game, you can live bet the dog (or sometimes road team) for as much as +175 to +300. I think this is great value. However I would not know how to compile the stats required to determine if we could produce a profitable system out of this... can anyone help? |
oilcountry99 | 50 |
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replied to
Help Using Excel to find how many MLB series have 1 game won by the DOG
in Systems & Strategies
Oilcountry... how exactly would you play this? Thanks for the stats.
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oilcountry99 | 50 |
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Is this dead?
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DoughDoubling | 100 |
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Quote Originally Posted by irage: I understood it correctly. The numbers above are based on the the team that is ahead by 1 or more after 5 innings and goes on to win. Oohh hold on a sec! I wanted the stats to represent teams that were ahead by one run specifically after 5 innings lol, not ahead by more than one run. I think that might considerably change the numbers you posted! If you have the time to find these specific stats, I'll be very grateful. |
irage | 83 |
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Quote Originally Posted by irage: I understood it correctly. The numbers above are based on the the team that is ahead by 1 or more after 5 innings and goes on to win. Oh ok great, thanks a lot. But what did you mean in post #43, when you said: "There from 06 - 2010 there was nothing above 49.1%, in fact 2007 I believe was 36.8%" What do these numbers represent? And to answer your question: I know some books offer live bets, so I figured I might give it a shot. |
irage | 83 |
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Quote Originally Posted by irage: Help me understand how this useful?
Oh crap... I think there is a misunderstanding here... I don't think I gave you a proper explanation. I meant, when a team has a one run lead after 5 innings, what % of the time does that team go on to win the game? That's what I meant. Really sorry for the confusion bro, but do you think you could still give me the numbers per year? :S |
irage | 83 |
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Irage, I don't know if you saw my request, but I will ask you for a third time, please:
Do you think you can backtest this for a few years back: If a team has a 1 run lead after 5 innings, what is the win % of those teams? Thanks and please let me know if that would be possible for you to figure out. |
irage | 83 |
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Irage... if you don't mind me asking again: do you think you can backtest this for a few years back: If a team has a 1 run lead after 5 innings, what is the win % of those teams?
Thanks for your help again. |
irage | 83 |
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Forgot to mention: please? lol. Thanks for your efforts and help.
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irage | 83 |
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Quote Originally Posted by irage: 2014 = 45.6% The Dodgers today was the last one to be ahead by 1 after 5 and win the game. Can you backtest this going a few years back? |
irage | 83 |
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How about...
What is the % of wins when an NHL team has a lead after the 1st period? |
irage | 83 |
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Quote Originally Posted by irage: Based on a lead after the 5th. If only one could bet on games after the 5th. 2014 = 86.6% 2013 = 88.3% 2012 = 90.5% 2011 = 89.0% 2010 = 89.8% Nice, can you backtest it a few years before 2010 please? Thanks a bunch. |
irage | 83 |
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So the rotation play was officially NYM +1.5, right?
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chargerfan10 | 48 |
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Can't believe he's been banned. Obviously it's fishy that he was using aliases. But who gives a garbage as long as his plays are winning, right?
And don't give me that "pick your own plays" BS. This garbage doesn't work. I work 80 hours a week so a system like Jeff's was perfect for me. By the way, we have his parameters for the rotation 5 game MLB chase... can someone start a new thread for this system and possibly monitor it? |
Fukmybookie | 16 |
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Ok nvm I got it, it was Cincy ML.
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JEFFTHEHAT | 2223 |
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So what was the play on 5/20? Cin ML? Since it was a fav on closing 5dimes lines?
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JEFFTHEHAT | 2223 |
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Quote Originally Posted by uslhockey: I am playing and following this chase. Am I correct in saying that one blow out in the system could cost 76 units (roughly depending on odds)? No, it would be around 57 units. Apparently, the system incurred a loss both in 2009, and again in 2010. |
JEFFTHEHAT | 2223 |
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