The Houston Astros need a win Thursday night to extend their season – and they have the right guy for the job as Justin Verlander looks to tame those Boston Red Sox bats for the second time in less than a week. Verlander's six-inning gem last Saturday gave the Astros a 1-0 lead in the American League Championship Series, but the Red Sox have proceeded to win the next three games while scoring at least seven runs in all three.
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros (-192. 7.5)
QUICK-HITTER
Oddsmakers are squarely behind the host Astros to send the best-of-seven series back to Fenway Park – and that edge begins with the first-inning props, which skew heavily toward the home team. But there might be value in taking the Red Sox to strike early in this one. They scored a first-inning run in their previous regular-season meeting with Verlander, and have scored twice in the first inning of each of their previous three games in this series. We recommend taking the surging Red Sox to lead this one after the opening frame.
Prediction: 1st Inning Winner Boston (+450)
FIVE INNINGS BET
How the first half of this game unfolds will depend greatly on how Red Sox left-hander David Price fares in his third start of the postseason – and given how the first two went, that might not be a good thing for the visitors. Price has been downright terrible in the playoffs, having allowed seven runs on eight hits through 6 1/3 innings with six walks issued and three home runs surrendered to the Yankees and Astros. The combination of Boston's red-hot bats and Price's ice-cold arm makes the over on the five-inning total a viable play Thursday night. In fact, we suggest going a half-point higher to avoid the push.
Prediction: Over 4.5 5-inning total (+110)
TEAM/PLAYER BET
These teams have seen a marked increase in hits per game over the course of the ALCS, going from eight combined hits in the opener to 16 in Games 2 and 3 and a whopping 24 hits in Game 4. Even with a significant reduction in hits Thursday night, these teams are still in good position to challenge their team hit totals. The Houston bullpen has struggled mightily in the series, while Price has shown nothing that would suggest he's about to turn the corner. Rather than take a shot on one team going over the number, we advise taking the teams to surpass their combined hit total.
Prediction: Over 15.5 total hits (-120)
FULL-GAME TOTAL
Boston's offense has been so prolific, it has nearly surpassed the game total itself in each of the previous three contests. But let's not forget that the Astros can put up runs themselves – and will need to in order to stay alive. Boston is 12-2-2 O/U in its last 16 games against a right-handed starter, while the Astros have cashed the over in 10 of their last 11 vs. teams with winning rates above 60 percent. And let's not ignore the umpire factor: Chris Guccione is behind home plate Thursday, and the over is a sizling 22-7-3 in his last 32 games calling balls and strikes. Ride the over in this one.
Prediction: Over 7.5 (-130)
FULL-GAME SIDE
The Astros have Verlander on their roster for times like this – and he has been sensational of late, leading Houston to victory in each of his previous seven starts. Take the starter matchup with a grain of salt – Price might only last three hitters in this one – but the mound mismatch is a significant one, and the Astros should take full advantage. Look for Houston's offense to come alive as it did the last time it faced Price – and while Boston is certainly capable of doing more offensive damage, Verlander is in good position to keep the Sox at bay again. We like the home team to win a close one.
Prediction: Houston 1-run margin of victory (+350)
