(3) Michigan Wolverines vs (1) Villanova Wildcats (-6.5, 145.5)
Villanova is one win away from its second national championship in three seasons, but its final hurdle appears to be a daunting one. Michigan owns the longest winning streak in the nation at 14 games and will attempt to upset the Wildcats when the teams square off Monday in San Antonio in the NCAA Tournament title game. **video
Villanova was a good 3-point shooting team in 2015-16 when it won the national championship (highlighted, of course, by Kris Jenkins' championship-clinching 3-pointer at the buzzer), but the Big East champions have taken it to a new level this season. The Wildcats set a Final Four record with 18 3-pointers in Saturday's semifinal victory over Kansas and have made at least 13 3-pointers in four of their five wins in this event. “It’s our best offensive team. We’ve had some good ones. This is definitely our best," said Villanova coach Jay Wright, whose squad hopes to hand Michigan its first loss since Feb. 6. The Wolverines defeated upstart Loyola Chicago on Saturday, rallying from a 10-point second-half deficit to move to the brink of their first title since 1989.
TV: 9:20 p.m. ET, TBS
BETTING STATS:
LINE HISTORY: Villanova opened as high as 7-point chalk and money coming in on the Wolverines saw that line drop down to -6.5 at most books heading into game day. The total hit the betting boards at 146 and has been bet down slightly to 145. Check out the complete line history here.
ACTION REPORT:
"Sunday morning we got sharp bet on Michigan +7 so we moved Villanova to -6.5. Villanova is a very popular side on the spread, with 73 percent of cash and 77 percent of bets. As a result, we have shaded the juice on Villanova to -6.5 (-115). The moneyline opened Nova -320/Michigan +260 and still remains at that number with 60 percent of cash on the moneyline taking Michigan. However, 64 percent of bets on the moneyline taking Villanova.
"Monday morning we moved the total from 145 to 145.5. Reason for this move is that 74 percent of the cash and 79 percent of the bets are taking the Over." - Mike Jerome, lines manager for topbet.eu.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "A team on a fourteen game win streak will battle a team that may have played the sharpest Final Four game ever. Michigan has utilized strong on ball defense to offset rusty half court offense. Yet they started to get a rhythm against Loyola with transition field goals off of turnovers. Could that be the momentum they need to jump start their offense? If not Villanovas Jay Wright may have his second title in three years." - Covers Expert Zack Cimini.
MATCHUP CHART:
ABOUT MICHIGAN: The Wolverines won their final six regular-season games, followed by a 3-for-3 run in the Big Ten Tournament and a smooth surge through the first five games of the Big Dance, although they have yet to defeat a team seeded higher than No. 6 in this event. They have given up more than 63 points only once in this tournament and harassed Loyola into 1-of-10 3-point shooting and 17 turnovers, while Moritz Wagner (24 points, 15 rebounds) handled the bulk of the burden offensively. Charles Matthews added 17 points, but fellow starting guards Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Zavier Simpson combined for seven points on 2-of-17 shooting and must be better against the Wildcats' talented backcourt.
ABOUT VILLANOVA: With Wooden Award finalist Jalen Brunson leading the way, the Wildcats are the top scoring team in the nation (86.8 points), which provides a nice contrast with the Wolverines, who are eighth nationally in points allowed (62.9). Brunson had 18 points against Kansas, second on the team to Eric Paschall, who recorded 24 points on 10-of-11 shooting (4-of-5 3-pointers), while Omari Spellman chipped in 15 points and 13 rebounds and Donte DiVincenzo had 15 points off the bench. Mikal Bridges, potentially the top NBA prospect in this year's Final Four, had 10 points against the Jayhawks and is capable of erupting from 3-point range, as the junior has drained multiple 3s in 13 of the last 14 games.
CHEERLEADER BATTLE:
TRENDS:
* Wolverines are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
* Wildcats are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big Ten.
* Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 3-0-1 in Wolverines last 4 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 5-1 in Wolverines last 6 non-conference games.
Click here for a complete list of hot and cold trends.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Covers consensus data is showing 67 percent of bettors taking the favorites from Villanova, while 76 percent of totals wagers are on the Over. Click here for complete consensus data.
