The names are different but the situations stay the same.
Each college football bowl season, select teams pack their bags and head off for their postseason matchup, giving sports bettors a fresh set of intriguing non-conference competitions. While there is an aura of the unknown when it comes to bowl teams – these programs don’t know much about each other – football bettors can find familiarity and value looking for teams in these certain situations.
We break down some of the important factors to figure into your bowl betting this December with our Bowl Betting Bible.
Check out Book I of Covers' Bowl Betting Bible: Capping Thy Coaches, and Book II: Money From Motivation.
BOOK III: TIME BETWEEN BOWLS GIVETH AND TAKETH AWAY
The Ravages of time. Idle hands do the Devil’s work. Time, time time… is on my side. YES IT IS!
All three famed phrases have everything to do with the time between a college football team’s final game of the regular season and its postseason bowl appearance.
Some programs are thrust right into the bowl schedule with a small break between the finale, finals and the bowl game. Other teams are collecting dust for almost a month while they prepare for their year-end showcase.
“The long layoff - several weeks - before the game is played can often lead to bizarre Over or Under-performance by teams involved,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril.
A team that gained momentum late in the year may not have that same mojo working for them in bowl season, thanks to the extended hiatus. Depending on the break between games, programs could be completely different come game day and that opens up a lot of value to go against, with oddsmakers setting these lines based on their past accomplishments.
The gap between the end of the regular season to the bowl game can be more than a month, so what difference does it make if a team won its last six in a row?” asks Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports.
A good example are the Central Michigan Chippewas, who finished the schedule on a five-game winning streak, becoming bowl eligible along the way and earning a ticket to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Chippewas, who are sitting at a pick’em facing Wyoming on December 22, will have had nearly a month off between the bowl and their final game of the season.
Northwestern was one of the hottest teams in college football, closing the 2017 campaign on a seven-game winning streak and earning a spot in the Music City Bowl versus Kentucky. The Wildcats will have been off for more than a month when they take on the other Wildcats as touchdown favorites on December 29.
The gap between season finale and bowl game, however, can also work in a team’s favor. A late-season swoon or a rash of injuries toward the end of the year can be remedied by a few weeks off.
Auburn is hoping the lengthy hiatus can heal up star running back Kerryon Johnson, who is listed as question with a shoulder injury for the Tigers’ date with UCF in the Peach Bowl. Johnson, who rushed for 1,320 yards and a team-high 19 touchdowns, will have just about a full month to recover between the Tigers’ loss to UGA in the SEC Championship and that New Year’s Day bowl appearance. Auburn could also get linebacker Tre Williams back from a shoulder injury as well.
The bowl break has also allowed Boise State to return two key weapons on offense for its matchup with Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl. Tight end Jake Roh and running back Alexander Mattison are expected to be back from ankle injuries, with the Broncos set as 7.5-point underdogs versus the Ducks on December 16.
Wyoming is hoping that month-long pause is enough to get quarterback Josh Allen back in working order for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl against CMU. Allen passed for 13 touchdowns and ran in another five but injured his throwing shoulder on November 11 and missed the final two games of the season – both losses for the Cowboys.
Will Grier is hoping to be under center for West Virginia’s appearance in the Heart of Dallas Bowl, taking on Utah on December 26. Grier underwent surgery on his broken middle finger on his passing hand in late November and is doubtful for the Mountaineers’ postseason game. Grier, who passed for 3,490 yards and 34 touchdowns, was replaced by sophomore QB Chris Chugunov in the season finale loss to Oklahoma, completely just 10 of 20 passes for 137 yards.
The Marshall Thundering Herd did get too much downtime between the end of the season and their showcase versus Colorado State in the New Mexico Bowl on December 16, but it was enough of a break to get leading receiver Tyre Brady healthy. He’s caught 56 balls for 777 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. Marshall is a 5.5-point underdog to CSU.
And UCLA and top NFL Draft prospect Josh Rosen is likely to be on the field for the Bruins versus Kansas State in the Catcus Bowl on December 26. Rosen exited the season finale against Cal with a shoulder injury but the time off has allowed him to be ready for his final college outing.
While the bowl break has allowed those teams – and many others – to heal up, other programs are wishing the postseason game would just get here already. Every bowl season is plagued with news of player suspensions, from either academics or off-field issues, as well as player injuries suffered in the limited practices allowed during bowl prep.
Washington State cut top receiver Tavares Martin Jr. for a violation of team rules last week, leaving the Cougars without their two best outside receiving targets after fellow WR Isaiah Johnson-Mack decided to leave Wazzu and transfer to a school closer to his family in Florida.
Georgia linebacker Natrez Patrick was running the risk of being suspended for the Bulldogs’ Rose Bowl matchup against Oklahoma due to drug charges following UGA’s win in the SEC Championship. However, the charges were dropped and the team has yet to hand down any punishment. Patrick was suspended four games earlier this year for misdemeanor marijuana possession.
With finals over and classes done, as well as practices limited by NCAA rules, players don’t have the same structured schedule to keep them busy and out of trouble. And trips home over the holidays have been the catalyst for many suspensions with players getting into fights and violating team rules while visiting with friends and family.
Local media are usually the first sources to report on these issues, so keeping a close ear to the ground and anticipating either injury or disciplinary news is the best way to stay ahead of the bookmakers during the bowl break.
Check out Book I of Covers' Bowl Betting Bible: Capping Thy Coaches, and Book II: Money From Motivation.
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