We begin the weekend on the baseball diamond with one of the most highly anticipated games of the year as the 83-46 Yankees take on the 85-44 Los Angeles Dodgers and star pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu. We break down the odds for that game and much more as we bring you betting trends, in-depth analysis, free picks and predictions in our MLB Daily Line Drive. **video
DOUBLE-PLAY PICKS
TEXAS RANGERS AT CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+125, 8.5 @ BETAMERICA)
Rangers starter Lance Lynn was one of the best money pitchers in baseball for a large part of the season but the Rangers recent struggles have affected him. Texas is 0-3 in Lynn's last three starts, although he has allowed a respectable 5 earned runs through 17 innings during that span.
The Chicago White Sox might be just what the doctor ordered for Lynn and the Rangers to turn things around. Chicago has the fourth-worst slugging percentage in the majors at .403, and that figure is an even lower .389 against right-handed pitchers.
Rookie Dylan Cease will take the hill for the White Sox. Cease is 2-6 with a 5.93 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and batting average allowed of .274. He allowed two dingers and five runs through five innings in his previous outing.
The Rangers offense isn't great, but they still generate 5.07 runs per game which is good for 10th in the majors, and is significantly better than the White Sox average of 4.24 runs per contest. With the White Sox 7-20 in their last 27 games against a right-handed starter fade them today and back the Rangers.
PICK: Moneyline Texas -140
NEW YORK YANKEES AT LOS ANGELES DODGERS (-140, 8.5 @ BETAMERICA)
Two of the most storied franchises in MLB history meet in L.A. in an interleague matchup. It just so happens that they also have the best records in Major League Baseball and are two of the biggest favorites to win the World Series. Need any more reason to be interested in this game? Well, NL Cy Young front-runner Hyun-Jin Ryu just happens to be on the mound.
The South Korean lefty is 12-3 with a 1.64 ERA, and 0.94 WHIP. His mastery of five different pitches makes him incredibly difficult for batters to figure out and his control is reminiscent of a prime Greg Maddux (he's walked just 18 batters through 148 1-3 innings).
Some experts say that good pitching beats good hitting and that theory will be put to the test as Ryu faces the Yankees who lead the majors in runs per game with 5.86 and are second in slugging percentage at .487.
The Dodgers also have a hard hitting lineup that plates 5.53 runs per game (fourth-best in the majors) with a slugging percentage of .477 (fifth-best). Luckily for them they don't have to go up against one of baseball's best pitchers. James Paxton will take to the mound for the Yankees and the lefty has had a shaky first season with his new club. He's 9-6 with a 4.53 ERA and he's been even worse on the road with an ERA of 5.21 and an ugly batting average allowed of .312.
The Yankees might have a slight edge at the plate, but the Dodgers have a big edge in pitching and have home-field advantage. Take L.A. on the moneyline.
PICK: Moneyline Los Angeles Dodgers -140
Yesterday's picks: 1-1
Season to date: 137-136-5
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STREAKING AND SLUMPING STARTERS
STREAKING
Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals (7-6, 3.46 ERA, $-637): The Cardinals 23-year-old has been absolutely dealing recently. Over Flaherty's last six starts, St. Louis is 5-1 and he's recorded an ERA of 0.74 and a WHIP of 0.83.
Flaherty should be in position to have another strong game today as the Cards host the Colorado Rockies who struggle to hit on the road. The Rockies have the third-lowest OPS in the majors in away games at .682. The Cardinals are -215 favorites and O/U is set at 8.5.
SLUMPING
Hector Noesi, Miami Marlins (0-3, 9.39 ERA, $-300): The 32-year-old Dominican made his return to the big leagues earlier this month after spending the last three years of his career playing in South Korea. The early returns have not been positive. Noesi has allowed at least two homers and five earned runs in each of his three starts.
Noesi and the Marlins host the Philadelphia Phillies as +152 underdogs tonight. Noesi shouldn't expect much run support given that the Marlins a major league-low OPS of .661.
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3 STRIKES
DEGROM DAY
Jacob deGrom day used to be a great betting day here at Covers HQ when the first five innings Under in deGrom's starts converted at more than a 80 percent rate in 2018. Sportsbooks have adjusted though and this year the first five innings Under in his starts is just 11-9-2, although it did hit in his last outing.
Today, deGrom and the Mets are -170 faves at home against the Atlanta Braves and the total is set at 7.5. The first five innings O/U is 4 and while that looks more than doable for deGrom who is 8-7 with a 2.61 ERA, it might be optimistic to think that Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz (4-5, 6.09 ERA) can do his part against a Mets lineup that is batting .302 over the last two weeks.
HOW GREINKE GOT HIS GROOVE BACK
Well, that didn’t take long. After a bit of a rocky start to his Astros tenure (see what we did there?), Greinke responded with two straight quality starts. The veteran right-hander allowed just three total runs on 11 hits with 12 strikeouts over 13 inning of work.
Tonight, he goes to work against the visiting Los Angeles Angels who counter with Jose Suarez. The Halos lefty owns a 6.75 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP this season and that balloons to 10.22 and 2.03 over his last three starts. The Astros hit .282 against lefties this season. Look at the Astros on the runline once again.
PADDING THEIR STATS
The Yankees and Dodgers isn't the only interleague matchup on today's card, with the Boston Red Sox on the road in San Diego. The BoSox are slim -113 faves and will start Eduardo Rodriguez. The Padres will respond with rookie Chris Paddack who has been very impressive at times this year but is going through a bit of a rough patch having given up five homers and 13 runs through 14 2-3 innings over his last three starts.
San Diego is just 6-13 over their last 19 games at home and Boston is a perfect 11-0 in Rodriguez's last 11 interleague starts. Boston is also 5-1 in the last six meetings in the head to head.
FRIDAY’S TOP CONSENSUS
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