The Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves begin a two-game interleague series at Truist Park on Tuesday night. The Braves have the second-best World Series odds but they enter on a three-game losing streak and the Red Sox haven't been pushovers — especially with Kutter Crawford on the mound.
See why I like both Crawford and Atlanta pitcher Reynaldo Lopez with my Red Sox vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, May 7.
Red Sox vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Under 9 (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
To everyone's surprise, the Boston Red Sox have the best rotation in the majors. Today they're giving the ball to Kutter Crawford, who has pitched to a 1.56 ERA through seven starts while ranking in the Top 5th percentile in hard-hit rate.
The Atlanta Braves also have a red-hot pitcher on the hill in Reynaldo Lopez, who has a 1.50 ERA in five starts. Lopez struggled early in his career but after a couple of productive years as a reliever, he has earned another shot at being a starter and is making it count.
While regression seems inevitable for both hurlers, their impressive expected ERA numbers (3.23 for Lopez and 2.93 for Crawford) indicate that any drop-off shouldn't be steep.
The Red Sox have been inconsistent at the dish and rank just 28th in expected batting average (.231) and 17th in expected slugging percentage (.392). Although the Braves have a scarier lineup, they're in the middle of a slump and have plated just 2.5 runs per game over their last eight contests. I'm backing the sizzling starters in this matchup and taking the Under 9.
Red Sox vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Kutter Crawford Over 4.5 strikeouts
Vaughn Grissom Under 1.5 total bases
Crawford has fanned at least five batters in 11 of his last 12 starts going back to last season. The Braves are 18th in the majors in strikeout rate and are just 26th in that category over the last two weeks.
Vaughn Grissom made his Red Sox debut last Friday and he has gone 1-for-8 at the plate in two games. He actually played last season in Atlanta but was unable to a regular spot in the lineup and finished with a .347 slugging percentage in 23 games. Grissom is a bright prospect but hasn't shown enough in the majors for the Over 1.5 on his total bases to be priced at -165, especially with a red-hot starter like Lopez toeing the rubber.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Braves odds
Red Sox vs Braves live odds
Red Sox vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-135) | Atlanta -1.5 (+120)
- Moneyline: Boston +140 | Atlanta -165
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)
Red Sox vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on the Braves and the Under, shifting the moneyline from Atlanta -165 to -180 with the total ticking down to 8.5.
- The Braves have the sixth-best record in the majors at 20-12 but have lost six of their last eight games.
- The Red Sox are coming off a 9-2 win against the Twins which snapped a three-game skid and improved their record to 19-16.
- Despite Crawford's sizzling start to the season, Boston is just 3-4 in games he has started.
Red Sox vs Braves trend
The Under is 14-4 in Boston's last 18 games while going 10-1-1 in Atlanta's previous 12 contests. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Braves
Red Sox vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
NESN, BSSO
|
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Kutter Crawford (2-1, 1.56 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Reynaldo Lopez (2-1, 1.50 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Braves latest injuries
Red Sox vs Braves weather
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