The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs square off at Wrigley Field on May 7 in the second contest of a three-game set, with the Padres looking to replicate last night's success.
My Padres vs Cubs predictions expect Chicago to bounce back with rookie ace Shota Imanaga toeing the rubber, helping his team lead through the first five. Find out more in my MLB picks ahead.
Padres vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
First Five innings Cubs run line -0.5 (-130 at bet365)
My analysis
The San Diego Padres have won five of their last six, but the Chicago Cubs have been the superior team over the course of the season and have a significant advantage on the hill tonight.
They'll be giving the pill to rookie Shota Imanaga who has pitched to a sizzling 0.78 ERA with a 0.75 WHIP through six starts. Imanaga doesn't have overpowering velocity, but his fastball has tons of movement, and his splitter has been borderline unhittable. He ranks in the Top fifth percentile in chase rate, Top 30th percentile in hard-hit rate, and his expected ERA sits at an impressive 2.76.
The Padres are starting 25-year-old righty Randy Vasquez, who's surrendered four runs in each of his two MLB starts this year. Vasquez looked terrible at Triple-A El Paso — pitching to an 8.40 ERA with a 1.87 WHIP in four starts — only getting the call-up due to an injury to Joe Musgrove.
The Padres have been hitting the ball well over the last week, but there isn't much of a gap between the offensive production of these sides. San Diego is 15th in the majors in hard-hit rate while Chicago is just 21st, but the Cubs are sixth in barrel rate compared to the Padres at 16th.
The Friars have also struggled against southpaws like Imanaga, batting just .201 with an OPS of .650. With the Cubs averaging 3.24 runs per game at home through the first five innings and boasting the far better pitcher, back them to jump out to an early lead.
Padres vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Five innings run line Cubs -0.5
Shota Imanaga Under 1.5 walks
Cubs team total Over 4.5 runs
Imanaga is in the Top fifth percentile in walk rate and has posted fewer than 1.5 walks in five of six starts — including zero freebies in three of those outings. The Padres are 17th in the majors in walk rate (8.4%), with that number dropping to just 4.8% in their last three games.
Not only has Vasquez been struggling, but the Cubs are plating 5.35 runs per game at home with an OPS of .790. When you also factor in the 11 mph winds blowing toward the outfield and the Cub's high fly-ball rate, they should be able to put up plenty of runs tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Cubs odds
Padres vs Cubs live odds
Padres vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-155) | Chicago -1.5 (+130)
- Moneyline: San Diego +125 | Chicago -150
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Padres vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on the Cubs and the Over, shifting the ML to -160 and moving the juice on the Over 8.5 from -120 to -130.
- The Padres have gone 5-1 in their last six games to improve to .500.
- The Cubs are 21-15 this season and have gone 12-5 at Wrigley Field.
- The Cubs are 6-0 when Imanaga gets the start, and those contests have gone 4-2 to the Under.
Padres vs Cubs trend
The Cubs have hit the moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Cubs
Padres vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, MARQ |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Randy Vasquez (0-1, 5.87 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Shota Imanaga (5-0, 0.78 ERA) |
Padres vs Cubs latest injuries
Padres vs Cubs weather
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