Reds vs Dodgers Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Los Angeles Dodgers’ record over the last couple of weeks may not look too shabby, but beneath the surface, this team has struggled to hit the ball. That puts them in a tricky situation on Thursday when they step to the Cincinnati Reds.

With Tyler Glasnow toeing the slab in the Dodgers’ homecoming following a six-game road trip, can the Dodgers find their best baseball and come away with a statement win against Cincinnati? I break it down in my MLB picks and Reds vs. Dodgers predictions below.\

Reds vs Dodgers prediction

My best bet
Under 7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis
It’s hard to ignore how poorly the Los Angeles Dodgers have fared at the plate over the last week. Andy Pages’ hot streak has come to an end, Max Muncy is back to being a highly-volatile hitter, and altogether, this team owns a measly 85 wRC+ over that span.

While small sample sizes are fun and hard to read into, it's not hard to see that the Dodgers are far from at their best at the plate right now. They’ve struck out in 28.3% of plate appearances — an insane number for their standards — and have only walked in 8.7% which is also a bit of a head-scratcher. 

When the ball’s come back into play, things have been more or less OK, but the issue here has been with the Dodgers’ approach, a great cause for concern.

Now, this specific matchup is a tough one to figure out. The Cincinnati Reds don't really have a designated long man in the bullpen, though we can assume Nick Martinez will be used for multiple innings while Buck Farmer has also proven capable of handling multiple frames.

The pair have pitched to better than a 3.80 xERA this year and while Martinez has allowed one run in 5 1/3 innings since returning to the bullpen, Farmer hasn’t allowed a single run in 6 2/3 frames this month.

The Reds’ bullpen hasn’t been great, but since Martinez moved back into a relief role, this team has been knocking on the door of the Top 10 in ERA. On the flip side, the Dodgers’ pitching outlook should be dreamy with Tyler Glasnow on the hill.

The righty has been receiving plenty of rest between starts which seems to be working in his favor. Save for one hiccup against the Nationals in April, he’s been one of the most dominant arms in the league with a .195 expected batting average and 2.33 xERA sitting pretty next to a beefy 33.6% strikeout rate.

The Reds have been the stronger of the two teams at the plate, but they’ve struggled all year with strikeouts and did just lose TJ Friedl again to injury. Hitting .211 against power pitchers like Glasnow — who’s pitching for a slumping offense — runs should be at a premium.

Reds vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 7.5

Tyler Glasnow Over 8.5 strikeouts

Mookie Betts to record a hit

+364 at FanDuel

It’s always tough to finagle an SGP when we expect few runs, particularly when we only have one pitcher’s props to bet on. Luckily, I do think this price is a little short on Glasnow’s strikeout prop. He’s eclipsed the number in his last four starts and this line is likely a product of Cincinnati lowering its strikeout rate a bit over the last week.

With that said, the Reds now have a plethora of inexperienced hitters and strikeout candidates in the lineup due to injury and as we touched on above, have struggled mightily against power pitchers, as classified by Baseball Reference. They’ve also had some fortunate pitching matchups over the last week against the Diamondbacks and Giants and will be in for a much tougher challenge.

Then, I’ll fill it out with Mookie Betts to get a hit. He’s got good career numbers against both Farmer and Martinez and two hits in three at-bats against Suter to boot. Oh, and he’s also had multiple hits in four straight contests.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Reds vs Dodgers odds

Reds vs Dodgers live odds

Reds vs Dodgers opening odds

• Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (+120) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-140)
• Moneyline: Cincinnati +245 | Los Angeles -305
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)

Reds vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Dodgers opened around -290 and have been pushed all the way out past -320, with a slight buy-back on the Reds moving it to -310 earlier in the afternoon on Thursday.
  
  
• The total, meanwhile, has fallen from the opening number of 8 to 7.5 with some slight movement in the price towards the Over once the number changed.
  
  
• Despite the heavy move towards L.A. in this one, DraftKings is reporting that 53% of the handle is on the Reds here despite the underdogs accounting for just 22% of the tickets. There’s similar sharp action on the Under, with 39% of the tickets and 56% of the cash headed that way.

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Reds vs Dodgers trend

The Reds have stayed Under the total in 17 of their last 27 games (+8.40 units / 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Dodgers

Reds vs Dodgers game info

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