The 2024 US Presidential Election is months away, and while we know that Donald Trump and Joe Biden will almost certainly face off for the presidency, there's still plenty of speculation about who Trump will choose as his vice presidential candidate.
The VP odds board for the Republican Party has seen tons of volatility over the last few months, with Vivek Ramaswamy, Ron DeSantis, and Kristi Noem all boasting the best odds at one point in time and now looking like long shots.
Political insiders have suggested Trump has narrowed his VP shortlist down to four names, but there are dozens of other betting options to consider, so take a look at the latest Republican vice presidential nominee odds below.
2024 Republican vice presidential nominee odds
| Candidate | Odds at  |
|---|---|
| Doug Borgum | +400 |
| Tim Scott | +400 |
| J.D. Vance | +500 |
| Marco Rubio | +750 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +900 |
| Elsie Stefanik | +1,400 |
| Ben Carson | +1,600 |
| Lee Zeldin | +2,000 |
| Tucker Carlson | +3,300 |
| Mike Pompeo | +3,300 |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | +3,300 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | +3,500 |
| Nikki Haley | +3,500 |
| Michael Flynn | +4,000 |
| Byron Donalds | +4,000 |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | +5,500 |
| Ron DeSantis | +5,500 |
| John Ratcliffe | +5,500 |
| Kristi Noem | +6,600 |
| Mike Pence | +8,000 |
Odds as of May 21, 2024.
Who are the favorites to be chosen as Republican VP candidate?
There's a logjam atop the VP odds board, with Doug Borgum in first place at +400, followed closely by Tim Scott (+450), J.D. Vance (+500), Marco Rubio (+750), and Tulsi Gabbard (+900). With the exception of Gabbard, the four others were recently reported to be on the shortlist of Trump's VP candidates, according to Bloomberg News.
Other candidates have seen their odds plummet, including one-time favorites Vivek Ramaswamy (+3,500), Ron DeSantis (+5,500), and Kristi Noem (+6,600)
Doug Burgum's odds of becoming the Republican VP candidate
Doug Burgum has moved from off the board entirely to becoming the VP favorite at +400. Burgum sold his software company to Microsoft in 2001 and then became senior VP at Microsoft before serving as the governor of North Dakota since 2016.
Burgum campaigned to become the Republican Presidential candidate last year. You might not have heard about that since his campaign didn't get much publicity or traction, and he dropped out in December to become an energy policy advisor for Trump.
Burgum has been campaigning for Trump, who has shown mutual admiration by praising Burgum and saying he wants him to be an important member of his next administration. According to insiders close to Trump, Burgum is on the shortlist of potential running mates.
That said, Burgum has a low public profile, and he doesn't bring anything to the table that Trump's other VP candidates don't. It seems more likely he'll end up in Trump's cabinet with a different position, such as Secretary of Energy.
Tim Scott's odds of becoming the Republican VP candidate
While some VP candidates have seen their odds rise and fall, Scott has been near the top of the board since books opened this market
Party nominees typically choose a running mate to balance the ticket. That means picking a VP candidate who can win over key demographic groups that the nominees themselves might not have much influence over. In Trump's case, that would mean moderates, women, and the Hispanic and black communities.
With current president Joe Biden losing support among black voters in the latest polls, Trump has a great opportunity to leverage votes from a demographic that Republicans have often missed out on. Picking Scott, the lone Black Republican in the Senate, would likely help in that area.
Scott has a strong track record with fundraising and has generally been on good terms with Trump in the past. In fact, he was one of the few Republican presidential candidates that Trump chose not to criticize last year.
J.D. Vance's odds of becoming the Republican VP candidate
Vance has seen his odds soar from +8,000 to +500 following articles from the New York Times and other national publications that speculated on him being a good fit as Trump's running mate. At just 39 years old, Vance is Ohio’s junior U.S. senator and became a Republican darling after his book "Hillbilly Elegy" became a national bestseller in 2016.
Vance's rise from self-made success story to academic to prominent politician makes him an intriguing fit alongside the older Trump. It also helps that he has a close friendship with Donald Trump Jr. and was one of the first politicians to attend Trump's hush-money trial in New York to support the former president.
Marco Rubio's odds of becoming the Republican VP candidate
Rubio and Trump were practically at each other's throats when they battled during the GOP primaries. But much has changed in eight years, and Rubio is now fourth on the odds board at +750. Rubio once derided Trump as a "con artist" but went on to support Trump in 2016 and 2020 and endorsed him before the Iowa Caucus this year.
Rubio would be a high-profile VP candidate for Trump, and he has plenty of political experience when it comes to foreign policy and serving in the Senate. He would also help Trump among Latino voters, which would be crucial in swing states.
Kristi Noem's odds of becoming the Republican VP candidate
Noem has seen her odds plummet from +450 to +6,600 following controversial passages in her recently released memoir "No Going Back". Noem wrote about shooting a 14-month-old family dog that she hated for being "untrainable" after killing a neighbor's chickens.
Whether Americans are on the political right or left, there aren't many who see killing a dog as a positive anecdote. This has been a PR disaster for Noem, who had been at the top of this list and is now practically an afterthought. Noem has been the governor of South Dakota since 2019 and previously served in the US House of Representatives.
There's plenty of mutual respect between Noem and Trump, with Noem campaigning for Trump in the past and the former president previously saying he would consider her as his VP pick. More recently, Trump said, "I'm really curious about the dog" when discussing the recent controversy but didn't rule Noem out, stressing her long-term loyalty.
That said, with so many other viable candidates (including ones that represent swing states) available, it's missteps like this that can derail a VP train.
Nikki Haley's odds of becoming the Republican VP candidate
Haley keeps sticking around and is installed at +3,500 to be the Republican VP selection despite her refusal to endorse Trump. The former Governor of South Carolina and the 29th US ambassador to the United Nations, Haley ticks many boxes due to her gender, age, ethnicity, and political experience. She also might be able to bring the Never Trumpers to vote for the GOP in 2024 — which would be a massive boon for the party with Trump often alienating moderates.
However, while Haley might make strategic sense, there are plenty of reasons to think she's a poor fit for Trump's ticket. Not only was she Trump's top GOP challenger (albeit far behind on Super Tuesday), but she has been vocally critical of him during the primary debates.
The truth is a Trump-Haley ticket would actually hurt both of their brands. Haley's appeal to moderate Republicans would be damaged by kissing Trump's ring, while Trump's reputation as a political maverick would take a hit by the perception of Haley as an establishment politician.
When will the vice presidential candidate be chosen?
It's very likely Donald Trump and other GOP presidential candidates will name their running mate before the Republican National Convention begins on July 15 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
How to bet on political odds
While the most popular bet is who will become the next US president, plenty of other odds are offered as well. Before the Democratic and Republican candidates are announced, you can bet on 2024 Republican nominee odds, 2024 Democratic nominee odds. You can also wager on which party will win the election, which presidential candidate will win the popular vote, and even who will win in different states.
Keep up with current events
Follow current events and what is going on in the political world. That said, don't put too much stock in small events. An embarrassing mistake or salacious scandal might look bad at first light but in the grand scheme of things might not amount to much.
You can however take advantage of such over-reactions if your timing is right. For example, if your preferred candidate takes a hit in public perception their odds to win will likely go down as well. If you don't think the incident will have a long-term impact then you can grab your candidate at a better number than before.
Also keep in mind that articles about politics, especially editorial stories, tend to be partisan so try to read about events from as many different perspectives as possible in order to get the big picture.
Debates and changes in political alliances can occasionally turn the tide as well, and sportsbooks can take a bit of time to adjust political odds after those events.
Follow the latest polls
Now this one is obviously far from foolproof as anyone who thought Hillary Clinton was a shoo-in during the 2016 election can attest. National polls are a flawed tool but they can serve as a solid indication of which way certain demographics are leaning or gauge changes in popularity for a particular candidate.
The Gallup polls on presidential job approval are one factor to consider while Real Clear Politics provides information from dozens of polls including the general election. Another useful website is 270 to Win, which has a consensus electoral map based on current ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections.
Be realistic
This is another one that comes with a bit of a caveat. After all, Trump himself was one heck of a long shot before he took the Oval Office. But in general, when betting on politics stay away from those that are clearly on the outside looking in. After all, this is still a democracy and there are procedures.
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