The charge atop this column is to discuss the primary NBA news item of the day. And today, the biggest conversation in the NBA is not the return of Jamal Murray’s calf worries which have the NBA odds fluctuating, it is not the implosion of the Milwaukee Bucks, it is not even the likely end of LeBron James’s 21st season, though that likely also includes the end of his title-contending window.
The lead NBA thought today is Anthony Edwards’s on-court declaration of his arrival. Devin Booker outscored the Minnesota Timberwolves star on Sunday night. Kevin Durant played about as efficiently as possible. The Phoenix Suns shot nearly 40% from deep.
And no one remembers any of that because Edwards was that dominant with his 40 points, 9 rebounds, and 6 assists, punctuated by a dunk to go up four with 2:13 remaining.
Ant deserves every ounce of gushing praise. From Timberwolves fans, from talking heads, from Kevin Durant. And this dunk was likely the moment that punched Edwards firmly into the mainstream consciousness.
Damn!! pic.twitter.com/brridY9RGa
— Steve Little (@slittleyourco) April 29, 2024
But Edwards is not why Minnesota just swept Phoenix …
Be Afraid Denver, Be Very Afraid of The Wolves Defense
Anthony Edwards had the entire left side of the floor to himself on that dunk because Minnesota was effectively still in a secondary break. Phoenix wanted to double him, but with Nickeil Alexander-Walker not coming any closer than the top of the arc, Devin Booker could not encroach enough to allow Bradley Beal to cut off the baseline drive.
ANTHONY EDWARDS WITH NO REGARD FOR HUMAN LIFE ‼️ pic.twitter.com/qY19jkPg5k
— Covers (@Covers) April 29, 2024
Alexander-Walker was spaced there because the Timberwolves never went into an offensive set after he stole a Bradley Beal pass for Kevin Durant on the opposite end of the court. Beal needing to try that pass was the moment of the game that should resonate through the rest of this Wolves’ playoff run.
That possession began with Eric Gordon thinking he had an open 3, only for Karl-Anthony Towns to block out the sun. Two passes later, Kevin Durant caught a pass in the post with only Mike Conley guarding him. Anthony Edwards provided enough help from the weak side that Durant feared pivoting around Conley, while Towns crept down from the elbow to remove any thought of a fadeaway jumper.
Four passes around the horn later and Beal had an open baseline drive to the rim, only to meet Towns providing help once more. Then came the pass that Alexander-Walker saw coming.
Three ripe scoring opportunities from established NBA veterans that should not be cowed by the moment, three closeouts by rotating Timberwolves defenders, all involving a supposed defensive weakness.
If Rudy Gobert closes out on Gordon, then on Durant, and finally on Beal, it is simply another stellar moment from the soon-to-be four-time Defensive Player of the Year. When Towns does that in the closing minutes of a tight elimination game, it should be seen as a harbinger for the rest of the NBA.
It took two of the best scorers in the NBA going nuclear for Phoenix to hang within two possessions of Minnesota in this series, the Suns' offense constantly stymied by the perimeter trio of Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and Alexander-Walker while Gobert backstopped them. That is the Timberwolves’ ceiling.
Towns playing that quality of defense, effectively a B-version of Gobert, raises Minnesota’s floor to a level that just might be the NBA Finals.
Watch that entire rotation sequence again before you deem the thought hyperbolic. And remember, that defense led to the lopsided floor which allowed Anthony Edwards to jump off a trampoline.
Minnesota Timberwolves incredible team defense, leading to the Nickeil Alexander-Walker steal pic.twitter.com/uySEg9jYjt
— Timberwolves Clips (@WolvesClips) April 29, 2024
Tonight's NBA best bets
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
Know who probably watched Edwards’ fireworks last night? The Denver Nuggets, right now worried about Jamal Murray’s left calf strain. There may be some sense to arguing Denver knows the best path to Murray getting healthy will be to win tonight and enjoy five days off before facing the Timberwolves on Saturday.
But the reality is, that intangible incentive pales in comparison to how much worse the Nuggets are if Murray is less than 100 percent. Their net rating fell by 3.4 points without Murray in 23 games this season, the impact most felt offensively (-4.4).
Yet, this spread has not moved compared to Games 1 and 2 in Denver, when Murray was presumably healthy. It should have. If Murray is at all limited — and note, he has been battling calf and shin issues for more than two months now — then the Nuggets are vulnerable.
Best bet: Lakers +7 (-110 at FanDuel)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Know who else has probably noticed all the hype placed on Edwards today? Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. And the two up-and-comers are competitive enough to want to outdo each other even when not playing each other.
Gilgeous-Alexander has a chance to win his first playoff series, to sweep a supposedly dangerous 8-seed, and to put his stamp on these playoffs. Doing so would be a piece of redemption after shooting just 8-of-20 in Game 3.
Before that struggle, Gilgeous-Alexander had scored at least 28 points in each of his last three games with at least 30 minutes played. He should do so again, not one-upping Edwards but reminding the world there are two rising stars in the Western Conference.
Best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 27.5 points (-106 at Pinnacle)
NBA Trends: Top of the West
By the end of the night, the top three seeds in the Western Conference likely will be 12-1 in these playoffs. They could be as good as 10-3 against the spread. Who could have ever seen that coming?
*checks Western Conference regular season standings*
Oh, those three teams finished at least five games clear of anyone else in the West, and with point differentials at least 2.0 points per game better?
Okay, maybe we all should have seen this coming.
Raising The Ceiling: Pacers Knocking
The Indiana Pacers were dealt a fortuitous hand, absolutely. Facing the Bucks without Giannis Antetokounmpo and now Damian Lillard is perhaps the best postseason draw available. But still, Indiana has looked the part, particularly in firing past its team total in two of its last three games, eclipsing it by an average of 8.2 points in regulation in its three wins.
Win one of the next three games and suddenly the Pacers will be in the second round, and they should be given more credit there than they will be.
Sometimes basic stats are the correct stats: Indiana's point differential in the regular season was +3.1 per game. That ranked No. 3 in the Eastern Conference, despite the Pacers' sixth-place finish.
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NBA Futures Update: Keep up with the pace
And that is why grabbing the Pacers at +1,100 (at FanDuel and DraftKings) to win the Eastern Conference makes sense. They would be underdogs in the Eastern Conference Finals, but there will be a hedge opportunity available, even more so if their offensive variance notches a win in one of the first three games.
