After a successful debut in their potential 3-peat season, the Las Vegas Aces look to stay unbeaten as they host the Los Angeles Sparks this afternoon.
Vegas opened the year with an 89-80 win, while L.A. was dropped 92-81 by Atlanta. The books aren’t giving the visitors much of a chance, listing the Sparks as 19.5-point underdogs in the WNBA odds.
Read below for my free Sparks vs Aces prediction, and see why my WNBA picks like the reigning Finals MVP to continue shining.
Sparks vs Aces predictions
My best bet
A'ja Wilson Over 22.5 points (-130 at DraftKings)
My analysis
It was quite a season debut for A’ja Wilson.
The WNBA MVP odds favorite is starting in peak form, as evidenced by her 30-point, 13-rebound, 5-assist, 3-block effort in the Las Vegas Aces' win over the Mercury.
Wilson is coming off arguably her best season as a pro last year, where she averaged 22.8 points and 9.5 rebounds on a crisp 55.7% shooting from the field — all career highs.
Now, the 27-year-old draws an L.A. Sparks side that she has dominated in recent meetings, and the books have set her scoring line at 22.5, a figure that’s very generous for our betting purposes.
Over the last two seasons, Wilson has scored at least 23 points in seven of eight matchups with L.A.
Her only Under was in her first meeting of the season, where she put up 19 points and 13 rebounds in a 94-85 win in the Commissioner’s Cup.
After that game, she went on to average 24.3 points while shooting a blistering 60.4% from the field. In 2022, Wilson put up 27 points per game vs the Sparks, shooting an impressive 54.8%.
Like most WNBA teams, there aren’t a lot of great options to slow Wilson down. Cameron Brink is as tall as Wilson, but gives up 25 pounds.
Dearica Hamby is comparable in size and strength, but she was on the receiving end of Wilson’s dominance a year ago, while 6-foot-7 Li Yueru doesn’t play much for the Sparks.
It all adds up to what should be another super afternoon for the Aces star.
Sparks vs Aces same-game parlay (SGP)
A’ja Wilson Over 23.5 points
Dearica Hamby Under 14.5 points
Kelsey Plum Under 2.5 3-pointers made
Alas, we can’t get Wilson into an SGP over at DraftKings, but we’ll just take the figures given to us by bet365, and that means increasing the wager on this parlay to 23.5 points.
We’ve already mentioned Hamby having her hands full with Wilson on the defensive side, and that’s affected what the ninth-year pro has done on offense.
Last season, Hamby scored six points or less in three games against the Aces, finishing with 11 points in the first matchup of the year. She shot just 8-for-28 in those games, a lowly 28.5% clip.
Hamby’s 20-point performance in L.A.’s opener has inflated her scoring line to 14.5, but all signs point to an Under.
Ditto Kelsey Plum and her 2.5 makes from 3-point range. The former all-time scoring leader in college was the lone serviceable 3-point shooter in Vegas’ win, shooting 3-for-10 from beyond the arc on a night when the team combined to go 6-for-29.
Plum hasn’t lit it up against the Sparks from distance of late either. Last season, she crossed that total once, shooting a combined 7-for-23, barely topping 30%.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sparks vs Aces odds
Sparks vs Aces live odds
Get the latest Sparks vs Aces WNBA odds for tonight.
Sparks vs Aces opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +18.5 (-106) | Las Vegas -18.5 (-109)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +1,175 | Las Vegas -1,723
- Over/Under: Over 167.5 (-116) | Under 167.5 (-101)
Sparks vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis
- Las Vegas has won nine of the last 10 matchups vs L.A.
- Los Angeles was 5-9 as an underdog last season.
- Dating back to last year’s regular season, the Sparks have gone Over the total in four straight games.
Sparks vs Aces trend
Five of the last seven matchups between these teams have hit the Under. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sparks vs. Aces.
Sparks vs Aces game info
| Location: | Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Saturday, May 18, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Sparks vs Aces latest injuries
Sparks: Rae Burrell G (Out), Azura Stevens F (Out).
Aces: Chelsea Gray G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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