Boston 1st Eastern Conference64-18
Miami 8th Eastern Conference46-36

Boston @ Miami props

Kaseya Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Nikola Jovic Points Scored Props • Miami

N. Jovic
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
3.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.9
Best Odds
Over
+800

Nikola Jovic has successfully made 58.7% of his shots from downtown over the last 5 games, 17.6% higher than he's made from three in all games this year. Nikola Jovic has played 25.7 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.7 more than he's played overall this year. The Miami Heat check in as the 9th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 20 games in regard to shot attempts from beyond the arc. Nikola Jovic has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 11 games at home, 28.7% more than he's made in all games this year while at home. Nikola Jovic stands to get a boost in output across the board considering owning the home court advantage in this matchup.

Nikola Jovic

Prop: 3.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.9
Prop:
3.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.9

Nikola Jovic has successfully made 58.7% of his shots from downtown over the last 5 games, 17.6% higher than he's made from three in all games this year. Nikola Jovic has played 25.7 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.7 more than he's played overall this year. The Miami Heat check in as the 9th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 20 games in regard to shot attempts from beyond the arc. Nikola Jovic has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 11 games at home, 28.7% more than he's made in all games this year while at home. Nikola Jovic stands to get a boost in output across the board considering owning the home court advantage in this matchup.

Kristaps Porzingis Points Scored Props • Boston

K. Porzingis
power forward PF • Boston
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
16.7
Best Odds
Over
+525

Among all players in the league, Kristaps Porzingis measures in the 90th percentile, posting a monstrous 19.8 points per game this year. Kristaps Porzingis has attempted 5.2 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, ranking in the 84th percentile among all players in the NBA. Among all players in the league, Kristaps Porzingis registers in the 80th percentile for playing time, putting up an enormous 29.7 minutes per game this year. The showdown with Bam Adebayo lands in just the 100th percentile for difficulty with the other side's starting Cs burying a whopping 61.8% of their field goal attempts this year when they are away from home. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 7th-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.

Kristaps Porzingis

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 16.7
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
16.7

Among all players in the league, Kristaps Porzingis measures in the 90th percentile, posting a monstrous 19.8 points per game this year. Kristaps Porzingis has attempted 5.2 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, ranking in the 84th percentile among all players in the NBA. Among all players in the league, Kristaps Porzingis registers in the 80th percentile for playing time, putting up an enormous 29.7 minutes per game this year. The showdown with Bam Adebayo lands in just the 100th percentile for difficulty with the other side's starting Cs burying a whopping 61.8% of their field goal attempts this year when they are away from home. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 7th-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.

Payton Pritchard Points Scored Props • Boston

P. Pritchard
point guard PG • Boston
Prop
0.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.4
Best Odds
Over
+425

Payton Pritchard has sunk 7.0 baskets per game over the last 5 games, 3.4 higher than he's put through the net over the course of the season. Payton Pritchard has tallied 28.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.5 higher than he's tallied over the course of the year. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 7th-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games. Payton Pritchard has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 18.1% higher than he's sunk overall this season.

Payton Pritchard

Prop: 0.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.4
Prop:
0.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.4

Payton Pritchard has sunk 7.0 baskets per game over the last 5 games, 3.4 higher than he's put through the net over the course of the season. Payton Pritchard has tallied 28.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.5 higher than he's tallied over the course of the year. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 7th-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games. Payton Pritchard has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 18.1% higher than he's sunk overall this season.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Jaquez Jr.
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.8
Best Odds
Over
+400

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has attempted 13.8 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games, 4.2 higher than he's attempted overall this year. The Miami Heat check in as the 9th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 20 games in regard to shot attempts from beyond the arc. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has sunk 3.2 foul shots per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.0 more than he's put through the net in all games this year when playing at home. Jaime Jaquez Jr. will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on your home court usually boosts player performance in all facets of the game.

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.8
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.8

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has attempted 13.8 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games, 4.2 higher than he's attempted overall this year. The Miami Heat check in as the 9th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 20 games in regard to shot attempts from beyond the arc. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has sunk 3.2 foul shots per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.0 more than he's put through the net in all games this year when playing at home. Jaime Jaquez Jr. will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on your home court usually boosts player performance in all facets of the game.

Al Horford Points Scored Props • Boston

A. Horford
center C • Boston
Prop
5.5
Points Scored
Projection
6.7
Best Odds
Over
+390

Al Horford has converted 54.7% of his treys over the last 15 games, 12.7% higher than he's converted from beyond the arc over the course of the year. The showdown with Bam Adebayo lands in just the 100th percentile for difficulty with the other side's starting Cs burying a whopping 61.8% of their field goal attempts this year when they are away from home. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 7th-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games. Al Horford has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 14.3% higher than he's converted overall this season away from home.

Al Horford

Prop: 5.5 Points Scored
Projection: 6.7
Prop:
5.5 Points Scored
Projection:
6.7

Al Horford has converted 54.7% of his treys over the last 15 games, 12.7% higher than he's converted from beyond the arc over the course of the year. The showdown with Bam Adebayo lands in just the 100th percentile for difficulty with the other side's starting Cs burying a whopping 61.8% of their field goal attempts this year when they are away from home. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 7th-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games. Al Horford has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 14.3% higher than he's converted overall this season away from home.

Jaylen Brown Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Brown
shooting guard SG • Boston
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
21.3
Best Odds
Over
+210

Jaylen Brown has attempted 21.2 shots from the field per game over the last 10 games away from his home court, 2.3 higher than he's attempted overall this year on the road. Jaylen Brown has attempted 5.9 treys per game this year, placing him in the 89th percentile among all players in the league. Jaylen Brown has played 33.5 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 91st percentile. The matchup against the Heat is a positive one for field goal attempts; the opposition's starting SFs have totaled the 7th-most shot attempts per game in the league this year (12.2). Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 7th-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.

Jaylen Brown

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 21.3
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
21.3

Jaylen Brown has attempted 21.2 shots from the field per game over the last 10 games away from his home court, 2.3 higher than he's attempted overall this year on the road. Jaylen Brown has attempted 5.9 treys per game this year, placing him in the 89th percentile among all players in the league. Jaylen Brown has played 33.5 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 91st percentile. The matchup against the Heat is a positive one for field goal attempts; the opposition's starting SFs have totaled the 7th-most shot attempts per game in the league this year (12.2). Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 7th-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
20.9
Best Odds
Over
+114

Tyler Herro has attempted 10.4 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 2.2 more than he's attempted over the course of the year. Tyler Herro has tallied 33.4 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 90th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league. The Miami Heat check in as the 9th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 20 games in regard to shot attempts from beyond the arc. The matchup vs. the Celtics is a positive one for 3-point shots; opposing starting PGs have tallied the most 3-point shots per game in the league this year (3.0). Tyler Herro has sunk 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 15.0% more than he's sunk overall this year.

Tyler Herro

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20.9
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20.9

Tyler Herro has attempted 10.4 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 2.2 more than he's attempted over the course of the year. Tyler Herro has tallied 33.4 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 90th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league. The Miami Heat check in as the 9th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 20 games in regard to shot attempts from beyond the arc. The matchup vs. the Celtics is a positive one for 3-point shots; opposing starting PGs have tallied the most 3-point shots per game in the league this year (3.0). Tyler Herro has sunk 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 15.0% more than he's sunk overall this year.

Caleb Martin Points Scored Props • Miami

C. Martin
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.1
Best Odds
Over
+109

Caleb Martin has made 50.0% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 10 games, 11.1% more than he's made in all games this year. The Miami Heat check in as the 9th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 20 games in regard to shot attempts from beyond the arc. This year when they are playing at home, opposing starting SFs have tallied 6.7 three attempts per game (highest in the league) against the Boston Celtics, resulting in a positive matchup. Caleb Martin has converted 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games at home, 18.3% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this season on his home court. Caleb Martin should see an increase in output in all facets of the game on account of holding the home court advantage in this matchup.

Caleb Martin

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.1
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.1

Caleb Martin has made 50.0% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 10 games, 11.1% more than he's made in all games this year. The Miami Heat check in as the 9th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 20 games in regard to shot attempts from beyond the arc. This year when they are playing at home, opposing starting SFs have tallied 6.7 three attempts per game (highest in the league) against the Boston Celtics, resulting in a positive matchup. Caleb Martin has converted 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games at home, 18.3% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this season on his home court. Caleb Martin should see an increase in output in all facets of the game on account of holding the home court advantage in this matchup.

Jayson Tatum Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Tatum
small forward SF • Boston
Prop
18.5
Points Scored
Projection
25.3
Best Odds
Over
-107

Out of all players in the league, Jayson Tatum rates in the 98th percentile, logging a colossal 26.9 points per game when playing on the road this year. In contrast to last season's 5.9 rate, Jayson Tatum's bricked three-point shots have diminished this season to 5.1 per game. Out of all players in the NBA, Jayson Tatum measures in the 98th percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 36.0 minutes per game this year. The matchup against Miami is a good one for three-point shots; when the Miami Heat are at home, the opposition's starting PFs have posted the highest 3-point percentage in the league this year (46.4%). Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 7th-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.

Jayson Tatum

Prop: 18.5 Points Scored
Projection: 25.3
Prop:
18.5 Points Scored
Projection:
25.3

Out of all players in the league, Jayson Tatum rates in the 98th percentile, logging a colossal 26.9 points per game when playing on the road this year. In contrast to last season's 5.9 rate, Jayson Tatum's bricked three-point shots have diminished this season to 5.1 per game. Out of all players in the NBA, Jayson Tatum measures in the 98th percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 36.0 minutes per game this year. The matchup against Miami is a good one for three-point shots; when the Miami Heat are at home, the opposition's starting PFs have posted the highest 3-point percentage in the league this year (46.4%). Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 7th-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.

Delon Wright Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Wright
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
2.5
Points Scored
Projection
5.6
Best Odds
Over
-125
Prop
2.5 Points Scored
Projection
5.6
Best Odds
Over
-125
Projection Rating

Delon Wright has converted 54.3% of his treys over the last 10 games, 14.4% more than he's made over the course of the season. Delon Wright has tallied 24.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.7 more than he's tallied over the course of the year. Delon Wright has committed 0.7 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the least-whistled players in the NBA (13th percentile). The Miami Heat check in as the 9th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 20 games in regard to shot attempts from beyond the arc. Delon Wright has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 17.2% higher than he's converted in all games this season.

Delon Wright

Prop: 2.5 Points Scored
Projection: 5.6
Prop:
2.5 Points Scored
Projection:
5.6

Delon Wright has converted 54.3% of his treys over the last 10 games, 14.4% more than he's made over the course of the season. Delon Wright has tallied 24.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.7 more than he's tallied over the course of the year. Delon Wright has committed 0.7 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the least-whistled players in the NBA (13th percentile). The Miami Heat check in as the 9th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 20 games in regard to shot attempts from beyond the arc. Delon Wright has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 17.2% higher than he's converted in all games this season.

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
24.5
Points Scored
Projection
19.3
Best Odds
Under
-148

Bam Adebayo has attempted 0.7 3-point shots per game this year, ranking in the 18th percentile out of all players in the league. The rate of treys converted against Kristaps Porzingis has been very low (23.3%) when guarding opposing starting Cs this year (6th percentile). The most lethargic tempo team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Heat. The Celtics have played at the most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games while traveling, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Heat. Offensive rebounds continue possession and create further chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat grade out 4thworst in in the league with only 9.3 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 24.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19.3
Prop:
24.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19.3

Bam Adebayo has attempted 0.7 3-point shots per game this year, ranking in the 18th percentile out of all players in the league. The rate of treys converted against Kristaps Porzingis has been very low (23.3%) when guarding opposing starting Cs this year (6th percentile). The most lethargic tempo team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Heat. The Celtics have played at the most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games while traveling, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Heat. Offensive rebounds continue possession and create further chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat grade out 4thworst in in the league with only 9.3 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Jrue Holiday Points Scored Props • Boston

J. Holiday
point guard PG • Boston
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.5
Best Odds
Over
-115

Out of all players in the league, Jrue Holiday registers in the 86th percentile for three-point efficiency away from his home court with a phenomenal 41.0% rate this year. Among all players in the NBA, Jrue Holiday lands in the 89th percentile for playing time, putting up a massive 32.9 minutes per game this year. The matchup against the Heat is a strong one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1). Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 7th-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games. Jrue Holiday has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 15 games, 15.4% higher than he's made in all games this year.

Jrue Holiday

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.5
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.5

Out of all players in the league, Jrue Holiday registers in the 86th percentile for three-point efficiency away from his home court with a phenomenal 41.0% rate this year. Among all players in the NBA, Jrue Holiday lands in the 89th percentile for playing time, putting up a massive 32.9 minutes per game this year. The matchup against the Heat is a strong one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1). Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 7th-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games. Jrue Holiday has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 15 games, 15.4% higher than he's made in all games this year.

Derrick White Points Scored Props • Boston

D. White
point guard PG • Boston
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
13
Best Odds
Over
-130

Derrick White has successfully made 3.4 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.8 more than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the season when playing away from home. Derrick White has played 32.6 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 88th percentile. This year, the other team's starting SGs have tallied 6.3 3-point attempts per game (most in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, marking this as a good matchup. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 7th-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games. Derrick White has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 10.1% more than he's sunk over the course of the year.

Derrick White

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13

Derrick White has successfully made 3.4 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.8 more than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the season when playing away from home. Derrick White has played 32.6 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 88th percentile. This year, the other team's starting SGs have tallied 6.3 3-point attempts per game (most in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, marking this as a good matchup. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 7th-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games. Derrick White has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 10.1% more than he's sunk over the course of the year.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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