Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
---|---|---|---|---|
replied to
My Bettting Manifesto - long winded theory on sportsgambling.....
in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by xxgambler: vanzack, accounting for taxes what's the percentage you need to win to break even? sharp post. |
vanzack | 194 |
|
|
|
LineMover | 297 |
|
|
replied to
My Bettting Manifesto - long winded theory on sportsgambling.....
in Systems & Strategies
everyone pays vig- winners and losers.
|
vanzack | 194 |
|
|
replied to
My Bettting Manifesto - long winded theory on sportsgambling.....
in Systems & Strategies
Sorry. Was away doing my nightly pilates ab workout. ||reallyhappy.gif' border=0>
I'll give it one more try before sleeptime.||sleep2.gif' border=0>
I suggest betting 10% of your bankroll IF:
1. You have a goal of doubling your money (aggressive)
2. You have a timeframe of a season (aggressive)
3. Your expected juice is 2-3%
4. Your expected handicapping outcome is 55%
How did you come to the conclusion that 10% is the best possible wagering size within these parameters? It just sounded like a good number?||surprised.gif' border=0>
Obviously. And to be honest - this is the most common mistake in any business or gambling venture. Are you doing this to be entertained or make money. Im talking to those that want to make money. You have to have a goal. It is critical to any success
The goal should be to maximize profit per dollar/penny/whatever that is invested. There isn't any reason to set a goal of doubling your bankroll in a given period of time.
No, once again you didnt read the post. It is talked about above. Juice is the amount extra you pay related to the probability of the bet expectation. This is a tricky area. Read above.
YOU, VANZACK, posted "This gets more complicated but my personal philosophy is to RARELY lay above -104 here - and if it means selling down off of what I perceive as non-key numbers I will."
How did I misread this? First, I thought you might have meant never laying above -104 to mean never betting anything worse than an .08 line around +100, but the second part of your comment suggests that that isn't what you meant.
Once again - read above. Exchanges like mansion, matchbook and tradesports allow you to TAKE JUICE instead of give it. Betting -102 IS betting 2% juice in my book - can you explain why its not?
The 'true' line is -102/+102. Charging each side .04 produces
-106/-102.
Time for bed, and nightmares of me fighting Predator2.||an_speechless.gif' border=0> I really need to start watching more porn before bed, and less stupid horror movies.||an_smash.gif' border=0>
GL||an_cheers.gif' border=0>
|
vanzack | 194 |
|
|
replied to
My Bettting Manifesto - long winded theory on sportsgambling.....
in Systems & Strategies
It's pretty late to elaborate on everything, but I'll throw out a few.
You suggest betting 10% of your original bankroll. How many reserve bankrolls do you have? And if you have all these reserves, having them sit on the sidelines isn't the best use of them.
What exchanges are offering -102 both ways? at -106/-102, betting -102 isn't paying 2% juice.
I don't understand the theory of goals, ie. double your bankroll.
Do you have any idea of the probability of going -10units before going +10 at .55?
Nothing wrong with laying above -104. Pinnacle is currently offering
cle +3 -121/+113. You think that you're paying more juice taking cleveland -121 than you are taking jax +113?
|
vanzack | 194 |
|
|
replied to
My Bettting Manifesto - long winded theory on sportsgambling.....
in Systems & Strategies
Vanzack, you've been at Covers for a long time and have posted some things worth reading and taking note of. However, this isn't one of them.
Other than advocating reduced vig, everything you've proposed is just either just plain wrong, or poor advice.
We get it, you're having a good nfl season. You've been popping into threads all over the place bragging about it, and it seems to be the theme of this thread.
|
vanzack | 194 |
|
|
||an_roll_laugh.gif' border=0>
|
Vasilios | 822 |
|
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.