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You're on point... very good handicapper!
Let's do this...
Happy holidays!!!
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rush | 41 |
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1-0 ATS
Gonna stick with the NFL. Bowl games will have to wait and see; and then play...
Last week was not good for Dallas. This is a new week against a very bad team.
No other way to go!!!
DALLAS -10.5
Good Luck to All!!!
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GoodProfessor | 4 |
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Yikes!
0-3 ATS to Date
Time for me to stick with NFL for this weekend.
1-0 NFL
Best of luck to all!
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GoodProfessor | 4 |
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Started 0-1
Gotta believe the wrong team is favored and the over play just seems to easy, so I will be a gambling man...
Here we go With MEMPHIS +3.5 AND THE under 67.5
Good Luck to All
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GoodProfessor | 4 |
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NFL 1-0 from Thursday
My college bowl pick was a different story with me getting
Happy hoildays!!!
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GoodProfessor | 14 |
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NFL 1-0
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GoodProfessor | 14 |
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Good luck to all.
The Independents have not been a good wager over the years in bowl games.
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GoodProfessor | 21 |
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It's become a tradition, a winning way. Motivation and coaching are key factors in handicapping bowl games.
Many are the same players from the past three seasons. It certainly matters. In this case, the wins are consecutive and the last two are under the same head coach. BTW, Navy is without their head coach who masterminded their #1 rushing offense.
Best of luck.
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BKosar | 13 |
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Surely a very interesting stat, but not indictive of the Utah team that won its last 7 games with starting QB Brian Johnson before losing a rivalry game against BYU.
Even more so during the bowl season are the important factors of motivation, coaching and the program petigree.
In this case, here's what best explains why Utah has won six games in a row and covering 5 ATS.
Dominating Defense ATS
2001 Las Vegas Bowl
Utah 10, USC 6 Against Trojans wiz head coach Carroll and offensive guru Chow held USC to 151 yards 2003 Liberty Bowl Utah 17, So. Miss 0 High-flying USM completes 13 of 39 passes 2005 Fiesta Bowl Utah 35, Pittsburgh 7 An awesome Utes' nine sacks for a Fiesta Bowl record 2005 Emerald Bowl Utah 38, Ga. Tech 10 Star athlete Calvin Johnson: 2 catches, 19 yards 2006 Armed Forces Bowl Utah 25, Tulsa 13 Tulsa held to 2-for-11 on third downs This speaks volumes of the coaching, the players and their focus on bowl games by making all the right adjustments.
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BKosar | 13 |
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At the time of my post, the line was PITTSBURGH -7.5
Surely the line would adjust since it did open at as high as -9.5
In this case, and at this time of the year, I rather put my money on the better team in a must win situation.
Best of luck to all...
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GoodProfessor | 14 |
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Even better in bowl news... after re-checking; Utah has won six bowl games in a row. They have won 5 consecutive ATS, but more impressive, they are 8-2 ATS the last 15 years.
12/23/2006 Armed Forces Bowl-- Utah 25, Tulsa 13
12/29/2005 Emerald Bowl-- Utah 38, Georgia Tech 10 01/01/2005 Fiesta Bowl-- Utah 35, Pittsburgh 7 12/31/2003 Liberty Bowl-- Utah 17, Southern Miss 0 12/25/2001 Las Vegas Bowl-- Utah 10, Southern Cal 6 Now this all but seems to favor a team like Utah because of the quality of their program during the bowl season. The seniors have won for the past three consecutive years, so they know what it is like to win and how to win. It's clear, the coaching and players are focused on the game. This year should be no different with Navy being such a formidable opponent that Utah will once again come to play and not take them lightly after losing early in the season to Air Force. Coach Johnson is gone from Navy who was excellent at making adjustments, so I see Utah immediately playing with their plan of action because of the additional time they've had off.
This season after their bye week, Utah (-16) returned to a 40-0 first half score against Wyoming (a team that beat a somewhat decent Virginia in their season opener) and going on to win that game 50-0. They seem to score fast throughout the season, and then play ball control.
Thanks, LH for making me even look further into the past results of the current team and coaching for Utah.
The first half now becomes a nice play too!
First Half Play UTAH -4
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GoodProfessor | 21 |
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Chicago did beat Green Bay once, even more the reason I don't see it happening twice.
Thanks to all the well-wishers!
It's this type of positive engery that creates a winning way!
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GoodProfessor | 14 |
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Mistakes... not really!
Sorry for not making it clear. But yes, Navy is 2-0 ATS. They lost to BC, but covered which is why we are all here on covers.com as I was also referencing Utah's amazing ATS covers.
Yes, FAU did beat Minnesota but I'm postive it was a home game for Florida Atlantic, and not in Minnesota. So, it seems that they have not won a in a dome.
It did make me re-check as it is not my intention to release incorrect information.
Happy holidays!
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GoodProfessor | 21 |
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Feeling your selection. Much respect! My post gave all the reasons why go Utah all the way too, so let's do this...
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bigksolo74 | 14 |
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UHILL... the Florida Atlantic and Memphis is a pass for me. There are some games that make no sense and this is one of them. It's a whole different level of competition. Both teams have played some very close games and this looks to be one of those games where you never know which team will show up.
There are several things to consider:
1. Why have they set the line at Florida Atlantic -2.5? They've never been to a bowl game; and sure they beat a good Troy team, but the time off and coaching does not seem to favor such teams.
2. Memphis has been to a bowl game within the last three seasons and won. They've also played in dome games and won; where Florida Atlanic has not.
Yet, without question Florida Atlantic appears to be the hotter team based on their last games. In these situations:
NO PLAY
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GoodProfessor | 21 |
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Nice, you were 6-0 last week and we're on the same team again tonight.
Let's start Thursday off 2-0 ATS.
Happy holidays!!!
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rush | 81 |
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Way to go RUSH!
You were on FIRE last week. It's nice to see we're on the same play here.
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rush | 57 |
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Defense!!!
Thanks for the good wishes with our Utah pick.
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GoodProfessor | 21 |
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With time on my hands, while on vacation and waiting for the college bowl season to officially begin, here we are faced with another NFL Thursday night game.
At first look, it seemed I would be just tuning into the Utah and Navy bowl game, and not making a wager on the game. However, with recent game line movement from -9.5 to -7.5, this becomes an interesting play. The last few weeks IMO are always the toughest to handicap; and difficult as well for the oddsmakers to set the line.
Here we have a team in Pittsburgh that has lost its last two games. Yet, there is an opportunity winning out and securing a better seed for the playoffs. Motivation, I'd say.
Then there is St. Louis with too many key injuries for comfort. But, the key factor in making my decision is that St. Louis has lost both S/U and ATS this season against any team with a winning record: Green Bay, Seattle, Cleveland, Dallas and Tampa Bay.
In fact, this game setups up nicely since there is a lot more action on St. Louis than you'd normally see based on Pittsburgh last two losses to New England and Jacksonville.
Play on PITTSBURGH -7.5
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GoodProfessor | 14 |
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It's my favorite time of the year. In all my years of wagering, the college bowl season have always brought great winning opportunities. In its own odd way, you can forget about all the stats and trends; and start looking at other key factors in selecting a winner.
I only recently stumbled upon this site and found it very interesting in the last week.
So, here I am sharing my first pick and here's why:
Let me say, I've enjoyed all the players who have taken the time to explain why they've made a pick, no matter if it's different from our own personal selections. I can recall three ocassions when I've actually changed my bet based on good information and I came out a winner. It's my hope in sharing certain opinions and good information, we can all better handicap and win. Certainly I do not know it all or believe I will always win... in fact, I am prepared to lose on any given Sunday so to say, but what matters is my money management so when all is said and done, I end up a winner for the season.
Our common objective here is simple: Beat Vegas and the Bookie!!! I'm not here to challenge anyone but hope we can all be on the winning side!!!
UTAH -7.5 First, they are on a six game bowl streak! That alone should be enough said, but wait, Navy is also on a bowl streak of their own.
2-0 over the last two seasons and 4-1 going back 15 years. Plus, Navy has done tremendously well ATS against MWC opponents going an amazing 10-1 the past fifteen years. Not only that, they've played well in December games. And, they been a great underdog at this spread range hitting 4-1 ATS over the last three seasons. Plus, we all know they are going to run and run hard with a huge advantage of fans in attendance.
Doesn't it sound like anyone in their right mind should be taking NAVY plus the points. In fact, it almost appeared that while I was writing so many factors in favor of NAVY; they would easily be my play. But not so fast...
Secondly, the line opened at -9.5! Surely, the oddsmakers have this same information and yet, they've set their line rather generous IMO. Guess what? It's now at only -7.5!!! I'll go against the public on this one.
Finally, with what appears to be just so many advantages in favor of Navy, I believe as a gambling man, my hard earned money should go on UTAH for the following reasons:
1. Utah's current bowl win streak of six games speaks volumes of their coaching and philosophy of winning. It's not luck, but more so every player believing they can and will win. I've found as in life, sports at its highest level requires that burning desire to achieve positive results. Here we have a team that has bought into the very program. Plus, I'm from the old school of riding that streak, instead of waiting for it to end.
2. Navy just lost a good coach in Paul Johnson with his new position at GT, and that makes a big difference. Sure, the assistant knows the system but IMO, it's just not the same. Advantage Utah!
3. This is would be one of the most important factors to consider when you have two teams that can score... Utah has the #14 ranked defense and #3 in scoring defense. Wow!!! Rutgers is the closest opponent whose defense was ranked equally as high and they gave -16 points to Navy (with Navy losing 24-41). I don't believe the Utah lost to Air Force is reflective of the current Utah team because that loss was without their starting QB. And after winning 7 regular season games, the loss to BYU came as no surprise as it's a huge rivalry, and BYU is a good team. Did you happen to notice Navy's late October loss to Delaware?
4. Here's something else to consider, over the past three seasons, Utah is 5-0 ATS when having two or more weeks of rest which tells you they know how to prepare for a game. They will have time to make all the necessary adjustments.
So if you throw out all the trends and stats and look at the basic fundamentals of the game, Utah makes a lot of sense. Why? I've found that trends and stats over a period of time are reflective of key players and coaching during any given year; and not of the current team.
What is a fact in this game is Utah a huge coaching advantage, players that have bought into a winning philosophy, a team that knows how to make the necessary adjustments with time to do so, and a far superior defense, and better yet, scoring defense.
There you have it. My pick to kickoff this bowl season.
Good luck to all!!!
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GoodProfessor | 21 |
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