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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2013-14 Bowl System Picks
gratefulbets
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#1
Posted: 12/17/2013 11:14:49 PM
I'm not listing the games where the values are of no consequence, I may add them later. 

Here are my bowl system values and strategies for picking games. Because your lines may be different, I'm giving you the reasoning for the net values so you may make your own net values and decisions.

There are 2 categories of value, "A" and "B". The value of each category is measured against the line. 

Having net value for the same team in both "A" and "B" categories :
If the net value is +3 to +6.5, minimum, in both the"A" net value and the "B" net value, for the same team, then that is a play which should cover a minimum of 65% for that group.

As above:
+7 to +9.5 minimum in both "A" and "B" net value should yield 80%

+10, or morein both "A" and "B" net value should yield 90%

Here is the list of games that have the minimum net values in both "A" and "B" for the same team, and with the minimum values described above in those colors, are also colored in this list. 
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#2
Posted: 12/17/2013 11:15:25 PM
team....line....value A..value B.....NET VALUE: A & B 

Buf…..-1…….15………11………………...14…..10

Tuln….pk…….8………..9…………………..8…….9 

BGr…..-5…….14………20……………….…9..…15

Wash…-3…….6……….15……….………….3…..12

KsSt….-4…….12……….9…………………...8……5

Or……-14…….4……….11…………….Tex..10…..3

Az……-7.5…..27………27………………….20…...20

TxAM..-12…….1………..6…………Duke…11…….6

Wis..….pk…….6………..6………………..….6….….6

LSU…..-7…….4………..3…………..Iowa….3……..4

Hou…..+3……13………2……………………16……5

FlSt….-8.5……20….….18………………….11.5….9.5

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#3
Posted: 12/17/2013 11:24:39 PM

Nice job. Just one question, Where you show TxAM, are you saying Duke is the pick with the points? Just want to make sure I'm reading this correctly.

Thanks for posting and best of luck!

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#4
Posted: 12/17/2013 11:39:54 PM
Yes, that's correct. However, one of Duke's QB may not play, so check the injury lists for all games. 
BTW, I don't play the teams that only qualify as blue. 
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#5
Posted: 12/17/2013 11:47:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

Yes, that's correct. However, one of Duke's QB may not play, so check the injury lists for all games. 
BTW, I don't play the teams that only qualify as blue. 

If TxAM  line dropped to -11, or lower, then the NET VALUE of "B" would be 7, thus making it a better play.
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#6
Posted: 12/17/2013 11:49:28 PM
I'll be in Harvey's Tahoe Grateful during the bowls, I'm gonna roll with you this year. Thanks for the  plays and continued success. 
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gratefulbets
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#7
Posted: 12/17/2013 11:50:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:


If TxAM  line dropped to -11, or lower, then the NET VALUE of "B" would be 7, thus making it a better play.

Sorry, I meant to say if it goes to -13 or higher, then the net value B becomes 7.
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gratefulbets
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#8
Posted: 12/17/2013 11:55:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

I'll be in Harvey's Tahoe Grateful during the bowls, I'm gonna roll with you this year. Thanks for the  plays and continued success. 

Nice, you'll be able to make some plays if and when some of the lines move in the right direction. GL
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#9
Posted: 12/18/2013 12:30:17 AM
Thanks again gratefulbets ...
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#10
Posted: 12/18/2013 12:42:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:


Sorry, I meant to say if it goes to -13 or higher, then the net value B becomes 7.

Gotcha, I have a much better understanding of it now. Last year I went light on the blue plays and added more on the red and green. Won money and am rolling with you again this year. Thanks!!

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#11
Posted: 12/18/2013 9:46:16 AM
Based on your breakdown, AZ is the strongest play on the board as of this posting, correct?




GL
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#12
Posted: 12/18/2013 10:04:14 AM
Thanks Grateful.  Lets kick some behind again this year! 
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#13
Posted: 12/18/2013 10:19:14 AM

Thank you thank you thank you ....   

 For Newbies... these plays are like the bible

Parlaying Red and Green for a nickel to win 10000!  Lets roll!

 

You gonna post NFL in the other thread Grateful.

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#14
Posted: 12/18/2013 12:47:05 PM

For Newbies... these plays are like the bible

Parlaying Red and Green for a nickel to win 10000!  Lets roll!


C'mon man, you're setting me up for a fall. I don't have a crystal ball or a time machine, so these picks are not infallible. It's been a good run  for me, and i believe it's a good system that should do well over time, but any bet, any day, can lose. Remember  wk #14 of  college?  And betting parlays, esp. more than a 3 team, is not good money mgt. Read up on parlays…the house has something like a 31% advantage on 4 teams, or more. 
Anyway, I appreciate your confidence, but don't set yourself up for a huge disappointment. If these plays do well, then all is good. If they don't, then we still want peace of mind.   

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#15
Posted: 12/18/2013 12:53:01 PM
And as much as I want to bet my system blindly, and have done so in the past, I  really hate laying that many points against AUBURN. Just getting AUBURN to lose is gonna be a challenge, let alone by 8 or 9 points. 

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#16
Posted: 12/18/2013 2:27:20 PM

Thank You for the hard work on this system.  Tailed you last year and did quite well. 

Totally agree on Auburn however, gotta temper these numbers with some logic in certain situations, (e.g.Coaching changes, Motivation, and having the momentum, ala Auburn)

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nghia1973
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#17
Posted: 12/18/2013 3:31:52 PM
Thanks for sharing.  BOL this year 
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#18
Posted: 12/18/2013 4:56:14 PM
Looks like Tulane has gone from a RED play to Blue. LaLaf QB is doubtful though. Will keep an eye on this line daily. I can get it at -2 now, most places -2.5.
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#19
Posted: 12/18/2013 7:47:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Looks like Tulane has gone from a RED play to Blue. LaLaf QB is doubtful though. Will keep an eye on this line daily. I can get it at -2 now, most places -2.5.

You are correct. However, loosing their QB might give Tulane more value anyway,  to offset the extra 2 points... does not seem like much for loosing a QB of his caliber. ULLaf played their last game w/o their QB and only scored 8 points vs. USA.
I'm planning on making my Vegas trip tomorrow so I need to decide on this one. 
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#20
Posted: 12/18/2013 7:53:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Luckydan:

Based on your breakdown, AZ is the strongest play on the board as of this posting, correct?




GL
yeah, I guess so. Should we make it our 10 * play of the year? I would treat both green equally in terms of bet size.
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#21
Posted: 12/18/2013 9:19:08 PM
I'm seeing FSU -7.5 at the LVH and a few 8's at other outlets. I think that this number will continue to stay under 8. Public has to much respect for what Auburn has accomplished, and no way that I can see it going to 9 or more. Most early "precincts" are showing AUB money. If it holds at 7.5 or 8, looks like you have another "green" play.

GL
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#22
Posted: 12/18/2013 11:32:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

Yes, that's correct. However, one of Duke's QB may not play, so check the injury lists for all games. 
BTW, I don't play the teams that only qualify as blue. 

when you say you "dont play the teams that only qualify in blue" does that mean you are only playing 5 games total? so your plays are the following

BUFF (Best bet)

AZ (Best bet)

Tulane

Bowling Green

FL ST

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#23
Posted: 12/19/2013 5:28:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

And as much as I want to bet my system blindly, and have done so in the past, I  really hate laying that many points against AUBURN. Just getting AUBURN to lose is gonna be a challenge, let alone by 8 or 9 points. 

As my book said, there is a reason FSU is getting more than a TD.  After Auburns last 2 games I think the public would be throwing money at this team especially since its more than a TD.   But the line isn't moving from what I am seeing.  

 

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#24
Posted: 12/19/2013 5:32:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

For Newbies... these plays are like the bible

Parlaying Red and Green for a nickel to win 10000!  Lets roll!


C'mon man, you're setting me up for a fall. I don't have a crystal ball or a time machine, so these picks are not infallible. It's been a good run  for me, and i believe it's a good system that should do well over time, but any bet, any day, can lose. Remember  wk #14 of  college?  And betting parlays, esp. more than a 3 team, is not good money mgt. Read up on parlays…the house has something like a 31% advantage on 4 teams, or more. 
Anyway, I appreciate your confidence, but don't set yourself up for a huge disappointment. If these plays do well, then all is good. If they don't, then we still want peace of mind.   

As a testament to your abilities, I am that confident in parlaying.   You didn't need to put a gun to my head, I did it on my own.  I sincerely appreciate the plays you post.   Win or lose it will make for a great Bowl season (I Hope).

I parlayed your Combo NFL plays last week only to watch Philly lose to a pathetic Minn team.   So Yes ANYTHING can happen.   But I also played every team individual.   Would I have made more without the parlay...sure.   But it was a great day anyway.

Thanks again buddy.  

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#25
Posted: 12/19/2013 10:10:40 AM
I'd like to echo cg2's question. When you say you don't play the blue games, do you mean the blue and black ones, or you only play green and red, as in you would only play Buffalo, Arizona, Bowl Green, Fla state, and possibly Tulane? Ty!
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