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The system would be described as taking a sabermetric stats approach.. Most noted by the research done by TomTango, who's credentials include working for MLB's Seattle Mariners as a projection consultant/analysis. His work, and research can be located at .. tangotiger.com ; for more depth, and explanation..

please take note of understanding, I am not posting picks, this thread is a documentation of "added" variables where the leans become stronger, and turn into high % plays as the thread goes forward. This is the conception of a created MLB formula, incorperating the sabermetrician stats, with situational handicapping, strictly for MLB ... the ultimate goal is to bring "value" plays to the forefront, and a 70% winning edge achieved. The wins speak for theirselfs, the losses need to be re-capped, and this is where the addition of variables is added on the way, reaching your final goal of success ratio.. i will continue to document the leans that are derived from the formula in effect, on a daily basis, as the experiment continues, and becomes accepted or rejected, as accurate/reliable.

Thank you, I love the sabermetrics and I've always been looking to find a way to use stats (and by that I mean numbers and objective data not affected by biases in our judgement) to predict results at a decent rate.

I'll be checking the site above and get to work.

Good luck in your work!

Did you know that are actually making a movie based on Moneyball.

Your system is doing well :) Curiously, how long do you intend to "trial" this system and continue posting picks?

Until a consistent goal of 70% success ratio is accepted. roughly, around 100 more instances should give an accurate description.  your tracking is welcomed, and could become advantagious in your behalf. I strongly suggest to anyone with an interest, to read the thread from it's conception before getting involved with concept best regards......

the formula of Base_Runs consist on what the batters have done lifetime against the starter, middle relief, and closer of the two teams playing, with home runs being a key factor, if the starter is a rookie, or has never faced anyone on the opposing team, then you simply by-pass this particular game. In essence, you recreate the entire game inning by inning, based on a sabermetrician stats approach..In princapal; if four members of the opposing team has hit 8 HR against the starter, they will continue to hit HR's..it's really a team by team matchup, with absolutely no chasing involved. A very good example to this would be yesterdays Nationals+155 win, which was the formula's strongest play/lean....

All stats must be obtained by personal research, as their is no stats attached to the formula...i use, EliasSportsBureau.com baseball1.com vegasinsider.com  CBSsportsline.com, and Covers.com.. my main source of information comes from entering the MLB data base of the two teams playing, from the 'local' newspaper's sports section. they have it all...Then situational play is applied, to bring the strongest picks forward, and eliminate the weak...This is only the basic outline, but enough to give understanding..I havnt even begun, Unit Management yet; I hope this has been of some help to your research. by the way, each game takes about 40 minutes to handicap correctly..best regards

I incorperate situatational play to make a "cut" eliminating the weaker plays; some days, the system offers more plays than other days; depending on the strength of the leans...and the equational "gap" on over & unders..