With just 8 horses in the field, pound for pound, there is a lot of talent here, including a few attempting to get to the next level. #3 Tapiture, #4 Strong Mandate and #8 Kobe’s Back are marquee names with #5 Hoppertunity and #7 Street Strategy looming.
Starting with trainer Baffert, he is 57% in wins over the last three years at Oak Lawn with three straight Rebel titles before last year when Lukas’ Will Take Charge won it.
D. Wayne’s #2 Ride on Curlin could be in the mix, but my sense says he gets out fast, but might not be able to stick to the distance considering his bottom sprint breeding. That said I’ve learned the past two years to not doubt the reinvented Lukas.
Another local talent is Cox’s #6 Sheltowee’s Boy. He doesn’t appear to have what it takes to win, but the trainer’s record at this track with young ones is outstanding. Check out this stat from drf: Cox is 55 of 196 (28%) the last 5 years with horses after a win. Look for the colt to come on late, and with the expected pace, he could be in the fray.
Take a real good look at #7 Street Strategy out of Street Smart with Calvin on top. He’s raced just twice, but this guy looks about ready to pop to the big-time at any moment, and today could be that day. He’ll likely go early, but based on his last out, it looks like he can catch the distance. Maybe Borel grabs his signature off-the-rail position, assuming it’s not dead, so look out. At the very least, put this guy on notify. BTW….Borel & trainer Morse are 36% wins in 2013-14.
#8 Kobe’s Back cannot be dismissed either. Sadler always ships well and the San Vicente winner looks like he’ll give it a late go.
For me, while logic says Tapiture and Strong Mandate should rule, I am calling for the upset with #5 Hoppertunity. In addition to Baffert’s record here, I just love the switch to Mike Smith, who is having a stellar TC prep season. I think this race sets up for a closer and I expect Smith to have the colt all revved up in the stretch. I also love the price—10-1 ML on a Baffert. The horse is posted right and the Smith-Baffert duo is 29% in wins in 2013-2014.
My picks:
#5 Hoppertunity to win and place
$16 exacta: 5/3, 4
$8 exacta: 5/7, 8
$5 exacta: 3, 4/5
$3 tri: 5/3, 4, 7,8/3,4,5,6,8
$1 tri: 3,4,5/3,4,5,7,8/3,4,5,7,8