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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Smith and Bode
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#1
Posted: 4/10/2012 2:14:45 PM
Wonder why Garcia didn't get the mount ? Baffert's #1 jockey and Smith is more a come from behind jock. Interesting.
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#2
Posted: 4/10/2012 2:57:02 PM

I'm a bit worried about a "bounce" with this horse.  Might take a step back.    He's ran two huge races in a row.  Has to go another 1/16th too and he did fade at the wire last time.  First time on another track.   3 yr olds don't bounce as much as older horses or fillies though.      Ran his heart out vs Creative Cause didn't he?   He was right on the pace for most of that race.     

Not saying for sure it's going to happen.   Something to think about.


San Felipe Stakes Chart

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Posted: 4/10/2012 3:08:44 PM
All true and its a tough race with Secret Circle. I am not a big "bounce" capper. I think that is overrated. Just my thoughts. It more a wise guy angle. Did "I'll have Another" bounce ? or Gemologist ? Rags didn't bounce either, he just got a horrible ride.
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#4
Posted: 4/10/2012 3:08:46 PM

Zayat Stables Racing Manager Justin Zayat tells us that Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith has called to personally request the mount on his colt Bodemeister. The son of Empire Maker is reportedly doing very well in the days leading up this competition in the Arkansas Derby. Smith won his 5,000th race over this past weekend.

Mke Smith has a history of winning races for Zayat Stables.

I love the move

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#5
Posted: 4/10/2012 3:13:26 PM

He will also ride this other beast-Hence the choice"

 Mamma Kimbo (KY) will lead the shippers for trainer Bob Baffert, and Mike Smith is in to ride. She only has one race under her belt, but it was an impressive maiden win in which she received a triple digit speed figure.

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Posted: 4/10/2012 3:18:01 PM

Pace was about a second slow (for the final time) to 6 furlongs in both of his last two races according to Brisnet.

He still couldn't hang on in his last.   

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#7
Posted: 4/10/2012 3:35:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Roused:

All true and its a tough race with Secret Circle. I am not a big "bounce" capper. I think that is overrated. Just my thoughts. It more a wise guy angle. Did "I'll have Another" bounce ? or Gemologist ? Rags didn't bounce either, he just got a horrible ride.



It's not an angle.   Tough races take something out of a horse.   Horses don't run there eyeballs out every time.   That being said, these are high quality male stakes horses.   Not cheapies.   And they are 3 year olds.

I'm not saying it's going to happen.  The thought went thru my brain though.  


Remember when The Factor won the Rebel by 6 lengths and then finished 7th in the Arkansas Derby?   

The Factor - race history


The Factor did run big in his first race out of California though.  

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Posted: 4/10/2012 8:30:01 PM
I am a chalk player, so I rarely use the bounce as a capping tool. Just my philosophy. Not saying its right or wrong, but I prefer to have my horses running well and will take a chance on him/her regressing.
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#9
Posted: 4/10/2012 8:30:09 PM

Its also about still learning the horse. Most trainers of most 3 year olds are still figuring out their style. It was right about this time last year, a couple weeks  before the Florida Derby that Dale Romans watched the horse in front of Shackleford pull up, then watched Shackelford refuse to let the horses in back of him go by even while they were attempting to pull him up. Two weeks later, he is leading the stretch at Gulfstream.

First Dude's biggest race was when he (also Romans) learned that Dude seemed to like moving at the same speed as the horses in front of him, almost as if he was running in line, so Romans tried him in front.

Martz said a lightning fast young horse named Barbaro whom he was training as a front runner seemed to think that the goal was to let the horses behind catch up to him, even when he tried blinkers.

I love horses that are trying different styles this time of year. It means the trainers are learning something.

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#10
Posted: 4/10/2012 9:25:28 PM
Grey, to be fair to The Factor, he wasn't permitted to run his race in the Arkansas Derby. They tried to rate a horse than is simply unwilling to do so. By taking away his greatest (and only?) weapon, he had no chance. But like dj said, they probably figured they had to try to harness his speed if they were going to win the Derby at 1 1/4. They tried it and figured out quick that he is a one dimensional sprinter.

DJ... I think Romans is fantastic with this, glad to see you bring him up with a few fine examples. He always makes what look like questionable training decisions with 3 year olds this time of year on paper, but they are usually on the money. Guy knows his horses...


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Posted: 4/10/2012 9:26:29 PM
Oh and Smith is money on any major race. Bode will be favorite, I think.
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#12
Posted: 4/10/2012 9:58:57 PM

DRF BLOG:

1. Hansen (Mike Maker, trainer; Ramon Dominguez, jockey): Worked 5 furlongs in 1:00.00 at Churchill Downs trackside training center Saturday. ... Gets chance to show if he's worthy of top spot Saturday. ... Next start: Blue Grass (G1), Keeneland, Saturday. ... Derby future wager odds: 12-1.

2. Gemologist (Todd Pletcher, Javier Castellano): Wood win affirms lofty status. ... Unbeaten son of Tiznow (5-for-5) back in Florida to resume training for Derby. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), Churchill Downs, May 5. ... Odds: 12-1.

3. Union Rags (Michael Matz, Julien Leparoux): Could still wind up as Derby favorite after tough trip left him third in Florida Derby (G1). ... Has record of 4-1-1 from six starts. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 4-1.

4. I'll Have Another (Doug O'Neil, Mario Gutierrez): Prevailed by nose in closest Santa Anita Derby finish since 1985. ... Jockey headed to first Derby. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 21-1.

5. Take Charge Indy (Patrick Byrne, Calvin Borel): Borel looking for fourth Derby win in six years with wire-to-wire Florida Derby winner. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 15-1.

6. Creative Cause (Mike Harrington, Joel Rosario): Nipped by nose as Santa Anita Derby favorite. ... San Felipe (G2) winner did nothing to diminish stature. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 8-1.

7. Secret Circle (Bob Baffert, Rafael Bejarano): Rebel (G2) winner has chance to sweep Arkansas' three Derby preps. ... Worked 5 furlongs in 1:00.20 Monday at Santa Anita. ... Baffert says he's feeling better as he recovers from heart attack last month. ... Next start: Arkansas Derby (G1), Oaklawn Park, Saturday. ... Odds: 30-1.

8. Bodemeister (Baffert, Martin Garcia): San Felipe runner-up worked 5 furlongs in 1:00.40 Sunday at Santa Anita. ... Next start: Arkansas Derby. ... Odds: 22-1.

9. Alpha (Kiaran McLaughlin, Dominguez): Strong effort as Wood runner-up has trainer feeling confident about Derby. ... Withers (G3) winner may have had best effort in neck loss to Gemologist. ... Next start: Kentucky Derby. ... Odds: 21-1.

10. Howe Great (Graham Motion, John Velazquez): Palm Beach (G3) winner worked 5 furlongs in 1:01.60 Saturday at Keeneland. ... Owner Team Valor, Motion, Velazquez won 2011 Derby with Animal Kingdom. ... Next start: Blue Grass. ... Odds: 57-1.

Keep an eye on: Daddy Long Legs, Daddy Nose Best, Done Talking, El Padrino, Mark Valeski

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#13
Posted: 4/10/2012 10:10:08 PM

Twin Spires Blog:

As much as the racing March 31-April 1 juggled the Kentucky Derby picture, the action on April 7 mostly held up the status quo, as nothing that happened in the Illinois Derby, Santa Anita Derby, or Wood Memorial inspired me to change my topnine horses on the Road to Louisville, though I did usurp Mark Valeski in tenth with Rousing Sermon just because I like the latter's two-year-old form and style to maybe land in the gimmicks at a huge price if he gets in.

Overall I was more impressed with the Santa Anita Derby than the Wood Memorial, though that's sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy since I've said for the past few weeks that I think the better group of horses is out West. I haven't been high on Alpha all year, so Gemologist barely beating him doesn't really get the juices flowing. It's possible that both Wood horses are better than I'm giving them credit for, and if that's the case then I'll be a likely loser come May 5 (if Gemologist or Alpha does win then hopefully it's Rousing Sermon finishing second).

One of the more interesting discussions to erupt after Saturday's action was not about who is most likely to win the Kentucky Derby but who the public would think is most likely to win. With the Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby still to go plus three weeks of preparation after that, several things can happen to change the odds:

· Upsets in either race
o If a horse who needed a win to get in the Derby wins then he is likely 15- or 20-to-1 at best for the Derby, but that means a 50-to-1 bubble horse might be out, which means the price(s) on the favorite(s) go(es) up as well. This is a good thing supporters of horses like Union Rags, Gemologist, etc.
· Hansen airmails
o Union Rags’ third-place finish left Hansen a logical alternative among individual interests inpool 3 of the future wager, and even though he was 8.4-to-1 that day, I think he’d need to win the Blue Grass impressively to be 8-to-1 on May 5. 10-to-1 seems more likely with a solid effort.
· Bodemeister wins
o Bodemeister needs an Arkansas Derby win to clinch a Derby stall, but such a win would not be an upset. If he’s not favored in the Arkansas Derby he’ll be among the top choices. A truly remarkable performance not only gets him to Kentucky but also makes him one of the top choices.
· Secret Circle dominates
o Secret Circle is probably the most under-the-radar Bob Baffert-trainer colt with multiple stakes wins in the history of the Hall of Fame conditioner’s career. Most horses with Secret Circle’s resume for this trainer would be an overwhelming favorite for the Derby at this stage, but Secret Circle just can’t seem to shake the idea that he’s a sprinter. It doesn’t help that back in February Jason Shandler and Brad Free both quoted Baffert as saying that Secret Circle isn’t a Derby horse. Still, a big win in Arkansas certainly would suppress his price.


 

 

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#14
Posted: 4/10/2012 10:18:09 PM

Horse Racing Nation Blog: Bodemiester

a talented horse in the hands of a master horseman can certainly improve the odds. One such horse is an attractive son of Belmont Stakes winner, Empire Maker, named Bodemeister. Named after the son of three-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer, Bob Baffert, Bodemeister is both loaded with talent and in about as good of hands as a Kentucky Derby contender could hope for.


Yes, the Derby trail can be a perilous path for these young hopefuls. Not only do they have to remain a picture of health during the months leading up to the first Saturday in May, but they also need to collect enough in graded stakes earnings to qualify for the 20 horse field. For good or for bad it seems like a lightly raced horse that can peak in the spring, is now the popular way for a horse to reach Louisville. Both of our choices have some work to do on the earnings front, but I am confident they will take care of that in their next outing. Whether it is the Santa Anita Derby or the Arkansas Derby for Bodemeister, I am expecting a big effort.


After a solid 2nd place finish in his January debut, Bodemeister left many a jaw dropping with a stunning maiden victory in his second start. Arguably the most impressive 3yo performance so far this year, he absolutely ran away from a promising bunch of maidens in 1:34.45 for the mile. It was the kind of a performance that you see from a special horse, but he would need to show he could do it against stakes horses, and for the most part he did that in his next start. Running in one of the deepest prep fields so far, Bodemeister proved his class with a solid performance in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes. He was a little green in the stretch, but I saw it as a perfect progression for a talented young horse clearly on his way up.


Alpha not only had a chance against the best in his generation, but he had it around two-turns at Churchill Downs. Excuse or no, he failed. He reminds me of Stay Thirsty (also by Bernardini) in that way, and we all know how he fared in the Derby. Meanwhile, Bodemeister has only had one chance against topnotch competition, and he ran a very promising race. Sure he did not beat Creative Cause that day, but he was competitive and much the best of the rest, and all this in only his third lifetime start. At this stage of his career, there is plenty of reason to believe he will improve with more racing, and considering the trajectory of his first three starts, that should be more than just a little bit scary to his competition.


I agree. While the likes of Union Rags, Hansen, and Creative Cause are looking good and currently dominating the Derby chatter, the 2012 trail seems to offer a plethora of other interesting prospects, and for the reasons outlined above, I like Bodemeister as well as anyone of that bunch.


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#15
Posted: 4/10/2012 10:19:27 PM

Horse Racing Nation Blog: Alpha

Alpha by Bernardini, was bred with the first Saturday in May in mind. He was bred to love the dirt and to have the stamina to handle those long runs. Alpha shares his sire with another Derby contender that everyone was marking as a favorite until he was sidelined, Algorithms.

Getting to the first Saturday in May is half the battle; the road is harsh and many horses become sidelined before they reach the starting gate. It happened to Uncle Mo, and this year has seen Algorithms, Out of Bounds, and others sidelined, but with the path taken by Alpha he should have no problem getting to the starting gate. He has been a lightly raced colt, winning just enough graded stakes to make sure he has the money but not pushing himself too much prior to the big show. His next start in the Wood, win or lose, is a great place for him to run next. With the most prominent names heading elsewhere, this race will give Alpha the chance to get in a paid work and get used to the starting gate (which seems to be his main issue).

This little colt is steadily improving. He finished 2nd in the Champagne stakes to Union Rags, not bad for his second race ever! Then due to his gate issues he finished 11th in the Juvenile, but he then came back to win the Count Fleet. He had no easy trip in the Count Fleet bobbling at the start and going wide around the turns, but he still managed the win with an 85 Beyer Figure. In his race leading us up to the Wood Memorial, he went a 1 1/16, with a higher assigned weight than the competition, went about 4 wide around the turns and still earned a win with a 90 Beyer. I like what I see…improvement.


Although the jockey on this winning team for the Derby is yet unknown, the idea of losing Ramon doesn’t bother me one bit. As a matter of fact, I am thrilled with the idea of Ramon riding Hansen over all of his many, many other mounts. This leaves the possibility of Alpha being wide open for a fast healing Garrett Gomez. Just a thought, but he does have a past with this horse. I know the outcome of that race was not what I was betting on, but since he was already knows the colt a little bit, McLaughlin may as well have the best rider out there on his horse. I think that the pick up mount - Derby win angle, started last year, could become a trend.


I know we keep hearing about Union Rags and Hansen, but don’t leave Alpha off of your Derby tickets. He is flying under the radar right now, and we may just get a great price on this future Derby winner.

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#16
Posted: 4/10/2012 10:20:47 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Johnnyg7:

Grey, to be fair to The Factor, he wasn't permitted to run his race in the Arkansas Derby. They tried to rate a horse than is simply unwilling to do so. By taking away his greatest (and only?) weapon, he had no chance. But like dj said, they probably figured they had to try to harness his speed if they were going to win the Derby at 1 1/4. They tried it and figured out quick that he is a one dimensional sprinter.

DJ... I think Romans is fantastic with this, glad to see you bring him up with a few fine examples. He always makes what look like questionable training decisions with 3 year olds this time of year on paper, but they are usually on the money. Guy knows his horses...


The Factor comment is right on the money.

If you don't believe that, do you honestly think that Baffert would not have tried to stretch an extra 1/8 mile playing catch me if you can? He knew that would not be possible (an extra 3/16) in the Derby without burning out the horse.

It wasn't a mistake, it was a valid and real test of his Derby potential.

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#17
Posted: 4/10/2012 10:23:03 PM

Brisnet: Kentucky Derby Blog

Bob Baffert received an unexpected benefit for Bodemeister Friday morning when the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes runner-up worked in company with Splendid Fortune.

The two were part of a pack of 10 that went off simultaneously at the 8 a.m. (PDT) break on the fast dirt at Santa Anita and also finished together.

"I've never seen that happen before, ever," said private clocker Toby Turrell, who has been timing horses for 30 years. "It was a sight to see."

"When Bodemeister broke off, there must have been 10 horses breaking off at the same time," Baffert said. "He (jockey Martin Garcia) got him behind and the horse came back filthy dirty but he was fine. He couldn't have had a better work schooling today with the dirt hitting him."

Bodemeister, a candidate for either the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 7 or the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 14, was timed in :46 4/5. The son of Empire Maker broke his maiden by 9 1/4 lengths on February 11 and is seeking enough graded earnings to make the Kentucky Derby field on May 5.

Splendid Fortune, a Giant's Causeway sophomore filly who finished a half-length second in her career debut, was caught in :47 3/5 under Rafael Bejarano.

The leader in the 10-horse pack was Grade 1-placed stakes victor Mensa Heat, who sped five furlongs in :59 3/5 for trainer Ted H. West. Fifth most recently in the Joe Hernandez Handicap, the six-year-old Unusual Heat gelding is ticketed for the Grade 2 Potrero Grande Stakes on April 7.

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#18
Posted: 4/10/2012 11:25:18 PM
Bode is the deal for sure. Very talented and still green.
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Posted: 4/10/2012 11:29:51 PM
and I love Mikey on him.
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#20
Posted: 4/11/2012 9:29:55 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Roused:

Oh and Smith is money on any major race. Bode will be favorite, I think.

This would surprise me based on Secret Circle's credentials and success over the surface.  I would actually be shocked assuming the post draw doesn't put him in the parking lot.

 

HB

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Posted: 4/11/2012 2:05:06 PM
Bode ML favorite. 9/5. Almost beat CC.
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#22
Posted: 4/11/2012 2:45:51 PM

I'm taking a long look at Optimizer in this race.   

If the Rebel is another 1/16th he runs down Secret Circle.   Best part about it is that it was his best race in a long time and his 3rd off a 51 day layoff.  Should be near top form for this race.   This will be his 3rd race at Oaklawn.   He's been working out at Oaklawn since December.  Optimizer has been close to a lot of good horses in his career.   2.5 lengths from Gemologist.  1.75 lengths from Dullahan.   There's no doubt he has talent.  Other than the Baffert horses and Isn't He Clever and maybe Stat, this doesn't look like the strongest field in the world.  

With Bodemeister and Secret Circle and Isn't He Clever in here there should be a decent pace for him to run at.

He needs the Graded Earnings to get in the Derby.  He's 21st on the Graded Earnings list right now.   This race might have been D Wayne Lukas's plan all along.    

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#23
Posted: 4/11/2012 2:46:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Roused:

Bode ML favorite. 9/5. Almost beat CC.
o Secret Circle is probably the most under-the-radar Bob Baffert-trainer colt with multiple stakes wins in the history of the Hall of Fame conditioner’s career. Most horses with Secret Circle’s resume for this trainer would be an overwhelming favorite for the Derby at this stage, but Secret Circle just can’t seem to shake the idea that he’s a sprinter. It doesn’t help that back in February Jason Shandler and Brad Free both quoted Baffert as saying that Secret Circle isn’t a Derby horse. Still, a big win in Arkansas certainly would suppress his price.
Baffert always known for winning with the uncoupled higher odds hidden entry-
Secret Circle is the rabbit for Bodemiester
who needs the graded win-Positive Jock change
to Stakes Jock Smith the giantkiller it all adds up to a Winners Circle Pic-then Kentucky
its not a puzzle-Bode is Baffert's best shot at
Derby 2012-ala Indian Charlie-who was best to
Real Quiet
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#24
Posted: 4/11/2012 2:56:19 PM

Should have said,

"2.5 lengths from Gemologist with a 4-5 wide trip around the track going a mile -1/16th at Churchill."   


Gemologist just won the Wood Memorial this past weekend.  

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#25
Posted: 4/11/2012 3:45:27 PM

In that same race that Optimizer was 2.5 lengths from Gemologist, the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill on Nov 26th,  

Ever So Lucky ran a huge one to finish 2nd.    He's in the Bluegrass at Keeneland this coming weekend.    Gemologist just got past him after Ever So Lucky was right on the pace the whole race.   Very impressive and he's had a tune up at Gulfstream where he finished 3rd in a Grade 3 in his first race this year.    

I guess he just worked 5 furlongs in 57 flat at Keeneland today.  ARTICLE

  

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