Wiseguy.... If things workout today... what would be your play on Monday... Kentucky or Duke?
I would lean Kentucky, but it all depends on what line the bookmakers hang and If I think the public will tend to move the number in my favor. I know Betonline currently has Kentucky - 5 vs Duke offered , but I need to see what happens today before I place a wager.
Best of Luck to you today
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Wiseguy.... If things workout today... what would be your play on Monday... Kentucky or Duke?
I would lean Kentucky, but it all depends on what line the bookmakers hang and If I think the public will tend to move the number in my favor. I know Betonline currently has Kentucky - 5 vs Duke offered , but I need to see what happens today before I place a wager.
For Today's action, I have acquired positions on all betting options available to me today and have parlayed them with winning plays made during the week.Without going through all the tickets and prices, the bulk of my position is as follows :
1. Duke M / L Large 2. Duke p.s. Very small 3. Ky. M / L large 4. Ky. p.s. Very small 5. Wisc. M / L Small 6. Wisc, p.s. Medium 7. MSU M / L Small 8. MSU p.s. Medium
My largest positions are the favorites on the M / L my highest return percentage comes on dogs p.s. as I have them on 5,6 and 7 team parlays. My dog M / L is on 5 and 6 team parlays. All other teams on the parlays have won earlier in the week. Those selections were posted in daily threads. I did not post all the parlays as there were way too many and all at different prices.
Best of Luck to All Today
Fave M /L , Dog pointspread
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
For Today's action, I have acquired positions on all betting options available to me today and have parlayed them with winning plays made during the week.Without going through all the tickets and prices, the bulk of my position is as follows :
1. Duke M / L Large 2. Duke p.s. Very small 3. Ky. M / L large 4. Ky. p.s. Very small 5. Wisc. M / L Small 6. Wisc, p.s. Medium 7. MSU M / L Small 8. MSU p.s. Medium
My largest positions are the favorites on the M / L my highest return percentage comes on dogs p.s. as I have them on 5,6 and 7 team parlays. My dog M / L is on 5 and 6 team parlays. All other teams on the parlays have won earlier in the week. Those selections were posted in daily threads. I did not post all the parlays as there were way too many and all at different prices.
Great games. Obviously the Kentucky loss hurt , and I did not get any help with MSU p.s. On the positive side, My Duke plays coupled with Wisc. action netted me a small profit which is what this strategy is designed to do. It was fun and for my first CBB action , I'm Ok with the result.
Best of Luck to All
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Great games. Obviously the Kentucky loss hurt , and I did not get any help with MSU p.s. On the positive side, My Duke plays coupled with Wisc. action netted me a small profit which is what this strategy is designed to do. It was fun and for my first CBB action , I'm Ok with the result.
Great games. Obviously the Kentucky loss hurt , and I did not get any help with MSU p.s. On the positive side, My Duke plays coupled with Wisc. action netted me a small profit which is what this strategy is designed to do. It was fun and for my first CBB action , I'm Ok with the result.
Best of Luck to All
Summary
While I don't understand pointspread value relative to risk yet in CBB , I'm beginning to grasp it. I know that most on this forum bet pointspreads and eschew M / L bets as beneath their capping ability , I, as a novice to CBB am just looking to make a profit and carry more bankroll into CFB season. Positives
1. I was aware of my limitations in capping games.
2. I measured my risk carefully and ranked my options 1-4 in terms of prob. of success.
M / L Weighted riskP. S Weighted Risk
1. Duke Wisc.
2. Ky. MSU
3. Wisc. Duke
4. MSU Ky.
Negatives
1. I listened to the " Hype " on Kentucky which in turn , caused me to rate that play higher than I maybe it should have been. To that end , I'm calling my cable company to find out if I can get rid of ESPN.
Best of Luck to all in the Championship Game
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Great games. Obviously the Kentucky loss hurt , and I did not get any help with MSU p.s. On the positive side, My Duke plays coupled with Wisc. action netted me a small profit which is what this strategy is designed to do. It was fun and for my first CBB action , I'm Ok with the result.
Best of Luck to All
Summary
While I don't understand pointspread value relative to risk yet in CBB , I'm beginning to grasp it. I know that most on this forum bet pointspreads and eschew M / L bets as beneath their capping ability , I, as a novice to CBB am just looking to make a profit and carry more bankroll into CFB season. Positives
1. I was aware of my limitations in capping games.
2. I measured my risk carefully and ranked my options 1-4 in terms of prob. of success.
M / L Weighted riskP. S Weighted Risk
1. Duke Wisc.
2. Ky. MSU
3. Wisc. Duke
4. MSU Ky.
Negatives
1. I listened to the " Hype " on Kentucky which in turn , caused me to rate that play higher than I maybe it should have been. To that end , I'm calling my cable company to find out if I can get rid of ESPN.
After performing the tally of all 67 tickets I had at yesterday's close. I actually did somewhat better than I thought. After both final four games , the net result is a 16 % increase in the bankroll I had set aside specifically for wagering on CBB tournament games. The gain was primarily due to a larger position on Duke M / L - 210 , ( see posts # 6 and 7 ) and rolling some of that profit over to Wisc. M / L to protect my Kent. M / L exposure, as well as favoring Wisc. p.s . in my parlay hedge positions. A 16 % profit is not bad , but if Kentucky would have won , my gain would have been more than 6 times that amount. Of that 16 % profit , I currently have a third of it invested in Duke M / L on Monday.
Best of Luck to all in the Championship Game
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
After performing the tally of all 67 tickets I had at yesterday's close. I actually did somewhat better than I thought. After both final four games , the net result is a 16 % increase in the bankroll I had set aside specifically for wagering on CBB tournament games. The gain was primarily due to a larger position on Duke M / L - 210 , ( see posts # 6 and 7 ) and rolling some of that profit over to Wisc. M / L to protect my Kent. M / L exposure, as well as favoring Wisc. p.s . in my parlay hedge positions. A 16 % profit is not bad , but if Kentucky would have won , my gain would have been more than 6 times that amount. Of that 16 % profit , I currently have a third of it invested in Duke M / L on Monday.
Risk arbitrage is a concept that is practiced every day in business , finance , by commodities and currency traders and Yes by Bookmakers as well to mitigate risk by capturing gains while limiting loss. That's why their doors are always open.
Best of Luck to All
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Risk arbitrage is a concept that is practiced every day in business , finance , by commodities and currency traders and Yes by Bookmakers as well to mitigate risk by capturing gains while limiting loss. That's why their doors are always open.
The theory is , if I win tonight, I get to press my Duke action , as well as hedge some of my Kentucky position at the same time at minimal cost to me. We'll see how this works out.
Best of Luck to all.
This is an example from Sat. It pays to hedge
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
The theory is , if I win tonight, I get to press my Duke action , as well as hedge some of my Kentucky position at the same time at minimal cost to me. We'll see how this works out.
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