20-15 YTD
No posted picks for Week 8 but some threw some leans out there that weren't too hot. Glad I laid low on NCAA, had the wrong ideas in my mind. Note, in the games I track (mostly top 25 teams) public dogs in college had been doing quite well up until last week, hitting at a 14-7 clip. UNTIL LAST week, when there were more public dogs (9 of the 12 games I tracked) and no favorite with more than 62%. Slaughtered, 3-6 on public dogs last week. Think anyone noticed? This week there is only 1 public dog, West Virginia. Expect the dogs will be howling loud this week.
Texas +10 and ML
Have been hot and cold with them this year, leaned them last week against ISU but that wasn't good thinking. Horns are best served in the doghouse. They have a very legit pass defense and if properly motivated can make enough run stops to keep in the game, ala UCLA/Baylor/OU. Strong has to be itching for a decent conference win and although Snyder had Mack Brown's number this is a different coach and situation. Some signs of offense last couple with Texas and ISU games and K-State off the big upset win over OU.
Kentucky +14.5
Can't be two different extremes, MSU coming off bye and huge wins over A&M and Auburn while Kentucky while showing promise got slaughtered at LSU as a big public dog. Interesting this line only coming out at 14 and not really moving despite the heavy public action on MSU. MSU off a bye is likely not a good thing, on the road, and a very, very weak pass defense. Expect KEN to air it out early and often and lessen their exposure to the run. MSU has yet to be in the come from behind position, could be a uncomfortable position for them. I'm not ready to call the upset but I consider it a strong possibility.
Oklahoma State -1
West Virginia is fully capable of hanging with the best teams in the country and has a great pass defense. Bad situation for them though and they are known for laying an egg on the road. They really should have lost at Texas Tech, TT lack of a running game really hurt them holding that lead and they let it slip away after punting late in the game and letting WVU drive for a long FG. Think OSU has enough of a run game to not let them happen. Again another case of two completely different extremes, OSU off a 42-9 complete domination by TCU and WVU upsetting Baylor as underdogs. This week will be different, expect the upset.
A few thoughts on leans.
That LSU line is screaming upset but that may be one dog that isn't worth chasing. I expect this to be a close game and LSU very well could get the upset but I think the value with them coming off the blowout of Kentucky the home field advantage craziness and the line so low this might start out looking good only to have Ole Miss comeback and cover in the end. It is not the best matchup for Ole Miss as the LSU weakness lies in rush O with a pretty good to great pass D. I expect LSU to run on them early maybe as Ole Miss starts slow off all the excitement of where they sit but that D may stiffen in the 2nd half and if it is tight LSU QBs are vulnerable to making mistakes.
TCU is kinda hard to fade, 23pts is a big number though and got to think they will be a little lazy in one of these. Texas Tech hasn't done well on the road but historically they are pretty good in these big underdog roles.
I think I will lay off backing S Carolina in the big dog role. Think I would look at some of the bigger favorites with large one sided public action and no line movement and consider backing those dogs (Michigan, Rutgers, Texas Tech, Tennessee...maybe not Tennessee).
Good luck to everyone this week.