If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
7.08.2013, 1-1, +.25 Units, +2.5% ROI
YTD – 146-161-30, +22.59 Units, +1.5% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: Even a small profit has to be appreciated when breaking out of a slump.
Cubs F5, +105(Blanton / Wood)
Old Joe has improved his GB/FB ratio quite a bit during his West Coast residency but he still gives up too many dingers; 1 every 5.74 innings of action so far this year even though he is on the coast with pitcher friendly ball parks. Travis Wood is Central America and gives up a dinger only once every 13.79 innings. There are more revealing stats regarding these two guys but that one should serve as a prime example of the overall difference. Also worthy of note is that the Angels are indeed playing better ball these days, but are still recorded only 3 wins their last 15 attempts at lefties and their median oera over that span is just 3.3. Their last 5 they are 0-2-3 and spells struggling. The always surprising (one way or the other) zoo known as the Cubs are 10-3-2 (I will bet you didn’t know that) versus their last 15 righties and have established a 4.6 oera. False favorite? Probably; especially with a 9 mph breeze out to dead center and the Angels tossing the more likely home run pitcher.
Dodgers F5, +100(Nolasco / Kennedy)
Nice acquisition by the Dodgers if you ask me. Nolasco has been undervalued with the Marlins this year and bettors probably don’t appreciate how hard it is to go 6-12 with a team that is 26-44 even without you on the hill; but Nolasco kept his chin up, gave it his best shot, and earned his reward, a ticket out of town! Kennedy is a stalwart pitcher only in the eyes of the public. 7-9 is not very good on a division contender that is 5 games over 500. Recent results in the 5 inning game versus righties are also revealing. Dodgers 7-6-2 but have won 5 of their last 7. Dbacks 3-9-3 with only 2 wins in their last 7. Greinke shut them down with Delgado on the hill; Kennedy should be no problem for Nolasco.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
7.08.2013, 1-1, +.25 Units, +2.5% ROI
YTD – 146-161-30, +22.59 Units, +1.5% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: Even a small profit has to be appreciated when breaking out of a slump.
Cubs F5, +105(Blanton / Wood)
Old Joe has improved his GB/FB ratio quite a bit during his West Coast residency but he still gives up too many dingers; 1 every 5.74 innings of action so far this year even though he is on the coast with pitcher friendly ball parks. Travis Wood is Central America and gives up a dinger only once every 13.79 innings. There are more revealing stats regarding these two guys but that one should serve as a prime example of the overall difference. Also worthy of note is that the Angels are indeed playing better ball these days, but are still recorded only 3 wins their last 15 attempts at lefties and their median oera over that span is just 3.3. Their last 5 they are 0-2-3 and spells struggling. The always surprising (one way or the other) zoo known as the Cubs are 10-3-2 (I will bet you didn’t know that) versus their last 15 righties and have established a 4.6 oera. False favorite? Probably; especially with a 9 mph breeze out to dead center and the Angels tossing the more likely home run pitcher.
Dodgers F5, +100(Nolasco / Kennedy)
Nice acquisition by the Dodgers if you ask me. Nolasco has been undervalued with the Marlins this year and bettors probably don’t appreciate how hard it is to go 6-12 with a team that is 26-44 even without you on the hill; but Nolasco kept his chin up, gave it his best shot, and earned his reward, a ticket out of town! Kennedy is a stalwart pitcher only in the eyes of the public. 7-9 is not very good on a division contender that is 5 games over 500. Recent results in the 5 inning game versus righties are also revealing. Dodgers 7-6-2 but have won 5 of their last 7. Dbacks 3-9-3 with only 2 wins in their last 7. Greinke shut them down with Delgado on the hill; Kennedy should be no problem for Nolasco.
Nice key I'm on the cubbies f5, what book u using I got +145 ? And I couldn't get dodgers f5 at that price was -120 I think.
I hate to tell you this but you are the one with a funny book. Your lines aren't even close to the opening numbers, much less the numbers available after the majority of the bettors have checked in. are you quoting the lines from some local book? If so, he isn't tracking any major book or line source.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Nice key I'm on the cubbies f5, what book u using I got +145 ? And I couldn't get dodgers f5 at that price was -120 I think.
I hate to tell you this but you are the one with a funny book. Your lines aren't even close to the opening numbers, much less the numbers available after the majority of the bettors have checked in. are you quoting the lines from some local book? If so, he isn't tracking any major book or line source.
Nice key I'm on the cubbies f5, what book u using I got +145 ? And I couldn't get dodgers f5 at that price was -120 I think.
If this is true, open an online account and simply play both sides. You can get the Cubbies at +145 and the Angels at -105 or so. These are huge arbs you can be cashing in on. If you were to lay a couple hundred per game, you can be cashing thousands over the course of a season.
Nice key I'm on the cubbies f5, what book u using I got +145 ? And I couldn't get dodgers f5 at that price was -120 I think.
If this is true, open an online account and simply play both sides. You can get the Cubbies at +145 and the Angels at -105 or so. These are huge arbs you can be cashing in on. If you were to lay a couple hundred per game, you can be cashing thousands over the course of a season.
Play On Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) with a starting pitcher whose gives up 7 or more hits/start, with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games
Play On Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) with a starting pitcher whose gives up 7 or more hits/start, with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games
Play Against Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (ARIZONA) on
a good fielding streak, 15 straight games with one or less errors
against opponent after a game where they had at least 10 more hits than
their opponent
Play Against Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (ARIZONA) on
a good fielding streak, 15 straight games with one or less errors
against opponent after a game where they had at least 10 more hits than
their opponent
I love the home run / wind out angle, but I'm not sure it's there today, especially with the wind blow out and to left, Wood being the southpaw who is facing 8 righties (who hit 53 points better by BA then LHB)
I love the home run / wind out angle, but I'm not sure it's there today, especially with the wind blow out and to left, Wood being the southpaw who is facing 8 righties (who hit 53 points better by BA then LHB)
Simple Home Chase Filters-Based on the start of the series.
1. Home team is .500 or better at home.
2. Home team is at least 5-5 last 10 games.
3. Visitor is .500 or less on the road.
4. Home team must lose first game.
5. For 4 game sets, home team must lose first 2 games.
*2009 Added Filter-The home team must be the favorite to be a chase. If
game 1 of the chase is lost and the home team is a dog for game 2, then
the chase is abandoned and we take the one game loss.
*2010 Added Filter-No chase on game 1 if the line is above -250. Not worth the risk.
**2010 No Inter league chases.
I will also add the AFC (Additional Filtered Chases) as well to the overall record:
These AFC chases are achieved when all the filters are met with the
exception of the Home team being 5-5 in their last 10 games. If they are
coming off a road trip wherein they dropped below 5-5 L10, they are a
play. Tonights plays are Ariz-110 & S.D.-130
Simple Home Chase Filters-Based on the start of the series.
1. Home team is .500 or better at home.
2. Home team is at least 5-5 last 10 games.
3. Visitor is .500 or less on the road.
4. Home team must lose first game.
5. For 4 game sets, home team must lose first 2 games.
*2009 Added Filter-The home team must be the favorite to be a chase. If
game 1 of the chase is lost and the home team is a dog for game 2, then
the chase is abandoned and we take the one game loss.
*2010 Added Filter-No chase on game 1 if the line is above -250. Not worth the risk.
**2010 No Inter league chases.
I will also add the AFC (Additional Filtered Chases) as well to the overall record:
These AFC chases are achieved when all the filters are met with the
exception of the Home team being 5-5 in their last 10 games. If they are
coming off a road trip wherein they dropped below 5-5 L10, they are a
play. Tonights plays are Ariz-110 & S.D.-130
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