Professor MJ's daily NBA projections (statistical models)

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Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/3/2017 1:45:46 PM
Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world!

I've been starting a new thread every day, from now on I'll just post in this thread (to make it easier to follow).

I’m pretty disappointed with today’s projections. Why? I worked hard analyzing the 10 games, but I only end up with 2 value bets, both rated 1 star. Based on my 9-12 record on such bets, I leave it up to you to decide if you want to tail those bets or not (do you trust this record will improve in the future?). In other words, nothing exciting today. Sorry about that, but I can’t do anything about it: it looks like the lines are sharp today. Here are the details:  

CAVALIERS-HAWKS
Pinnacle: -147 vs +133 (spread -3 vs +3)
Prof. MJ: -116 vs +116 (spread -1.8 vs +1.8)

Tip: Bet the Hawks.

SPURS-PELICANS
Pinnacle: -260 vs +231 (spread -6.5 vs +6.5)
Prof. MJ: -207 vs +207 (spread -4.2 vs +4.2)

Tip: Bet the Pelicans.


“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BETS (1 star / 5):  

- My system likes the Hawks +3 (money line +133 / 2.33) at home against Cleveland. The line may be underestimating the impact of the absence of starters Kevin Love and JR Smith. However, Cleveland picked up veteran Deron Williams. The Cavaliers have lost 2 of their last 3 games, while the Hawks have rebounded nicely since a three-game skid by posting a 114-98 win in Boston and beating Dallas 100-95 at home. Atlanta beat the Cavs in Cleveland 110-106 earlier this year. Here is one more thing I like about this pick: 87% of the bets have been placed on the Cavs, and yet the line is not moving (it even opened at 3.5 in certain books, so it went down!?!). That’s a sign sharps are betting Atlanta, and I like the sound of it. To be honest with you, my gut feeling views this bet more like a 2-star bet, but I need to stay consistent with the methodology.  

- Grab the Pelicans +6.5 at home against the Spurs. Newly-acquired star DeMarcus Cousins has been recording points since joining the Pelicans, but it hasn’t translated into wins yet, as shown by their   0-3 record. The chemistry will continue to build and things will definitely improve for the team, and the 6.5 spread seems too big. Cousins will be back from a one-game suspension, which means he will be rested and really motivated to win its first game in front of his new fans. It will be the 4th matchup between these two teams this season. The Spurs won the first 2 at home, while the Pelicans got an impressive 119-103 win in New Orleans on January 27th. Also note that Ginobili said he’d either miss tonight’s game, or tomorrow’s game for the Spurs.  

Cheers! 

Professor MJ
VandyManNYC PM VandyManNYC
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Posted: 3/3/2017 5:34:01 PM
Been checking your threads since you started posting, and I will definitely be checking every day.  Very insightful stuff. 

Have you been keeping a record since you started posting, broken out by # of stars?
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/6/2017 2:07:00 PM
Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world!  

Busy night in the NBA with 12 games on the menu. I have 4 value bets for you, including a 5-star and a 4-star. Let’s see the details:


BUCKS-76ERS (Pinnacle -3.5 vs +3.5, Prof MJ -4.0 vs +4.0)
KNICKS-MAGIC (Pinnacle +2 vs -2, Prof MJ +0.9 vs -0.9)
HEAT-CAVS (Pinnacle +9 vs -9, Prof MJ +7.1 vs -7.1)
WARRIORS-HAWKS (Pinnacle -5.5 vs +5.5, Prof MJ -4.8 vs +4.8)
BULLS-PISTONS (Pinnacle +4.5 vs -4.5, Prof MJ +6 vs -6)
NETS-GRIZZLIES (Pinnacle +12 vs -12, Prof MJ +13.8 vs -13.8)
BLAZERS-TWOLVES (Pinnacle +4 vs -4, Prof MJ +3.1 vs -3.1)
PACERS-HORNETS (Pinnacle +4 vs -4, Prof MJ +2.7 vs -2.7)
ROCKETS-SPURS (Pinnacle +3.5 vs -3.5, Prof MJ +4.3 vs -4.3)
KINGS-NUGGETS (Pinnacle +13.5 vs -13.5, Prof MJ +10.1 vs -10.1)
PELICANS-JAZZ (Pinnacle +6.5 vs -6.5, Prof MJ +6.7 vs -6.7)
CELTICS-CLIPPERS (Pinnacle +6.5 vs -6.5, Prof MJ +5.6 vs -5.6)

 
“AMAZING” BET (5 stars / 5):  

I’m jumping on Sacramento +13.5 at Denver. The Nuggets have lost the last 5 meetings between those teams (including a 116-100 loss after the Cousins trade). The Kings played last night, but benefited from three full days of rest prior to that game. Faried is doubtful to play tonight for Denver. Tyreke Evans sat out yesterday’s game so he should be fine tonight. The spread is amazingly big and offering good value.  


“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):  

I recommend going with Miami +9 in Cleveland. It feels like the spread is too big because most people expect the Cavaliers to be in revenge mode after losing 120-92 to this same Miami squad two days ago, especially with Lebron James and Kyrie Irving back in the lineup. The statistical models indicate a 7.1-point advantage to Cleveland (accounting for the absence of Kevin Love and J.R. Smith, as well as the addition of Deron Williams), which is pretty much was the line opened at.  


“OKAY” BET (2 stars / 5):  

I’m going with the Pacers +4 in Charlotte. Yes, Indiana is playing the second of back-to-back games, but it should be noted that they had 3 days’ rest before that, so they shouldn’t be extremely tired. The general public feels like the Pacers haven’t been doing well recently, but have a look at their last 11 opponents: Cleveland twice, San Antonio twice, Washington twice, Houston, Miami, Memphis, Atlanta and Milwaukee. Wow, what a tough stretch! The opposition shouldn’t be as stiff tonight, especially with Kaminsky out (he has been hot in the last few games for the Hornets).  


“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):  

My system likes the Pistons -4.5 vs Chicago. At this time of writing, Dwayne Wade is listed as questionable. He didn’t practice yesterday, and he didn’t look good in the game Saturday. To me, it doesn’t look like he’s going to play tonight. Rondo is also questionable, plus the losses of Gibson and McDermott via trades which make for pretty big holes in the lineup. Jimmy Butler better be a good shape for the Bulls to pull this one off.  


Cheers! 

Professor MJ
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/6/2017 2:08:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by VandyManNYC:

Been checking your threads since you started posting, and I will definitely be checking every day.  Very insightful stuff. 


Have you been keeping a record since you started posting, broken out by # of stars?

Yes I have. As posted on Reddit last Friday:

Several people over the last few weeks have been asking me about my record per star rating. I never took the time to do it, mostly because making the daily projections and doing the write-ups was already eating up most of it. I finally did it yesterday, and here is what it looks like (if some people want to double-check they are more than welcome):  

- 5 STARS = 3-2  

- 4 STARS = 2-1-1  

- 3 STARS = 3-1  

- 2 STARS = 3-3  

- 1 STAR = 9-12  

Overall I’m 20-19-1 which is ordinary, but if you only focus on 3+ stars I’m pleased with my 8-4-1 record.  

The numbers above are based on bets placed on the spread, of course. How do I determine the star rating? Solely on my estimated ROI (Return On Investment). Here is how it goes:  

- 5 STARS = ROI of 30%+  

- 4 STARS = ROI between 20% and 29.99%  

- 3 STARS = ROI between 15% and 19.99%  

- 2 STARS = ROI between 10% and 14.99%  

- 1 STAR = ROI between 5% and 9.99%  

Basically, I don’t consider a ROI below 5% to be a value bet.  

Note: on February 23rd I called Kings +7 vs Nuggets as a 4-star bet, but I clearly messed up because my estimated ROI was 33.2%. In other words, it was a 5-star bet, and I made the correction in the numbers above to make it more coherent with what I’ve done so far. I hope you don’t mind. 


koreatine PM koreatine
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Posted: 3/6/2017 2:12:53 PM
Appreciate all your work Prof 

8-4-1 is great 
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/6/2017 5:04:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by koreatine:

Appreciate all your work Prof 

8-4-1 is great 

Thank you koreatine, appreciate the support! I do my best!
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/7/2017 8:41:46 AM
Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world!  

Last night was great. I recommended 4 plays which were rated 5-star, 4-star, 2-star and 1-star. They all hit, except the 2-star. My record on 3+ stars went up to 10-4-1. In other news, I picked 3 teams in the NHL (2 underdogs and one pick’em) and they all won. I couldn’t be happier.  

As I said before, don’t get too high following good nights, and don’t get too low following bad nights. Bad streaks will happen. You just cannot avoid them. You just have to trust the long-term process.  

Below are today’s NBA projections:  

BLAZERS-THUNDER (Pinnacle = Thunder by 6.5, Prof MJ = Thunder by 7.2)
LAKERS-MAVERICKS (Pinnacle = Mavericks by 10, Prof MJ = Mavericks by 9.8)
WIZARDS-SUNS (Pinnacle = Wizards by 4, Prof MJ = Wizards by 4.8)

Basically, nothing good tonight in the NBA. The Wizards opened as 3.5-point favorites and I liked them to some extent. However, the injury to Bradley Beal worries me and it’s unclear whether he’ll play in Phoenix or not.  

I’m also going to track the Thunder line. Will Victor Oladipo play? Yesterday the news was that he was “questionable at best” so it felt like he was going to sit out. However, I just read that he felt good at Monday’s light practice and that we’ll know more this morning about his situation. If he plays, the line moves and you wonder whether you should bet or not, my updated projected lines would become Blazers +392 versus Thunder -392 (spread Blazers +8.7 versus Thunder -8.7). I’d recommend betting if the money line on OKC is -315 (decimal 1.32) or higher. In terms of the spread, you could bet them if you can get Thunder -7.5.  

If you wish to join my Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/ProfessorMJ/

Cheers! 

Professor MJ
noy24 PM noy24
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Posted: 3/7/2017 8:47:19 AM
Nice work prof, Dallas has a higher chance though, if oladipo and beal plays WAS and OKC are nice picks.
gervintheiceman PM gervintheiceman
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Posted: 3/7/2017 8:58:17 AM
will beal play? :D
Gioia1 PM Gioia1
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Posted: 3/7/2017 9:01:25 AM
Great research and write ups Prof, tracking your picks has helped me immensely, keep up the great work !
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/7/2017 10:03:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by noy24:

Nice work prof, Dallas has a higher chance though, if oladipo and beal plays WAS and OKC are nice picks.

If they play and the lines don't move they are great plays, but I doubt oddsmakers won't make the appropriate adjustments though.
PALVO1972 PM PALVO1972
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Posted: 3/7/2017 10:53:40 AM
Nice!
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/7/2017 10:58:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gioia1:

Great research and write ups Prof, tracking your picks has helped me immensely, keep up the great work !

Thanks a lot Gioia1 !!
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/8/2017 1:22:02 PM
Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world!  

I have decided to change the way the estimated ROI (Return On Investment) are calculated because the previous method was putting too much weight on heavy underdogs. Meanwhile, teams favorite by 5+ points had little chance of being rated 4-star or 5-star bets. The categorization method has also changed a little bit (i.e. the criteria for selecting the number of stars). I felt like those changes were necessary, even though what I did in the past led a 10-4-1 record on bets rated with 3 stars or more. Hopefully it won’t jinx me ;-)  

Below are today’s NBA projections:  

BULLS-MAGIC (Pinnacle = Bulls by 1.5, Prof MJ = Bulls by 1.3)
NETS-HAWKS (Pinnacle = Hawks by 9.5, Prof MJ = Hawks by 12.4)
HORNETS-HEAT (Pinnacle = Heat by 4, Prof MJ = Heat by 3.4)
KNICKS-BUCKS (Pinnacle = Bucks by 5, Prof MJ = Bucks by 6.7)
RAPTORS-PELICANS (Pinnacle = Pelicans by 2, Prof MJ = Raptors by 2.2)
JAZZ-ROCKETS (Pinnacle = Rockets by 6.5, Prof MJ = Rockets by 8.4)
CLIPPERS-TWOLVES (Pinnacle = Clippers by 3, Prof MJ = Clippers by 2.4)
PISTONS-PACERS (Pinnacle = Pacers by 3.5, Prof MJ = Pacers by 2.8)
WIZARDS-NUGGETS (Pinnacle = Nuggets by 2, Prof MJ = Nuggets by 2.7)
CELTICS-WARRIORS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 8.5, Prof MJ = Warriors by 8.4)
 

  
“AMAZING” BET (5 stars / 5):

I’m picking the Raptors +2 in New Orleans. The Raptors have won 8 of the last 10 meetings, including a  4-1 record in New Orleans. The Pelicans are just 1-5 since the acquisition of DeMarcus Cousins. I deducted 8% to Toronto’s estimated win probability because of the absence of Kyle Lowry (other adjustments were made for the acquisitions of Ibaka and Tucker, the injury to Carroll, and the fact that Cousins is now part of the Pelicans lineup). The Raptors are 4-2 since losing Lowry to an injury. Toronto benefited from 3 full days of rest, while New Orleans will be playing a 3rd game in 4 nights (4th in 6 days).

“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

I recommend the Hawks -9.5 versus Brooklyn. The Hawks have won 5 of the last 6 meetings (4 straight at home), including a 20-point win in Brooklyn earlier this season. Their second-highest scorer Dennis Schroder was benched for a good portion of the last game after exchanging heated words with one of his teammates. I’m pretty sure he will be focused and motivated tonight. After losing 119-111 to the league’s best team (Golden State), the level of competition won’t be as stiff when facing the league’s worst team: things should seem easier tonight for the Hawks. They certainly won’t take the Nets lightly considering the recent failures for Atlanta, and the shocking 13-point win by Brooklyn in Memphis.


“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

Take the Rockets -6.5 at home against the Jazz for several reasons (if it weren’t for the numbers, I’d grade this bet 4 stars). First of all, Utah will be playing a 3rd game in 4 days (4th game in 6 days). Their second-highest scorer George Hill is questionable to play because of toe soreness. Even if he plays, he will be affected by this injury. Derrick Favors is out.  Joe Johnson is questionable. On Houston’s side, Ryan Anderson is doubtful to play. I also like the fact that Utah has had fairly easy games recently (New Orleans, Sacramento, Brooklyn and Minnesota), while the Rockets have faced much tougher competition (San Antonio, Memphis, LA Clippers). I could envision the Jazz going straight into a wall tonight.


“OKAY” BET (2 stars / 5):

I’m going with Milwaukee -5 versus New York. Carmelo Anthony will play for the Knicks, but he has to deal with a knee injury. Joakim Noah is still out for New York. Milwaukee is back in playoff contention, having won 3 straight (including wins against the Raptors and the Clippers) and 7 of their last 10.

A quick word on the Hornets-Heat game. If you feel like betting the Heat after seeing them beat the Cavs twice, I would be cautious. Those games were pretty emotional and I'd be worried about a letdown tonight against Charlotte. I'm not saying you should bet the Hornets: the line seems fine to me, and I would stay away from this game.

Enjoy the games tonight!

Professor MJ
justliketoplay PM justliketoplay
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Posted: 3/8/2017 1:34:46 PM
Good Luck Prof and thanks for the picks and analysis
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/8/2017 2:23:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by justliketoplay:

Good Luck Prof and thanks for the picks and analysis

You're welcome my friend!!
stardove PM stardove
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Posted: 3/9/2017 12:05:08 PM
Bump!
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/9/2017 1:29:04 PM
Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world!

Before we move on to today’s projections, here is an update on my record per star rating since documenting my plays and posting on the web:

- 5 STARS = 5-2
- 4 STARS = 3-2-1
- 3 STARS = 3-2
- 2 STARS = 4-4
- 1 STAR = 11-11

Overall: 26-23-1 (win percentage = 53.1%). On picks with 3+ stars: 11-6-1 (win percentage = 64.7%).

We have 5 games tonight and I have 3 values bets (rated 4, 3 and 2 stars, respectively). Here are the details:

CAVALIERS-PISTONS (Pinnacle = Cavaliers by 5.5, Prof MJ = Cavaliers by 3.3)
CLIPPERS-GRIZZLIES (Pinnacle = Grizzlies by 2.5, Prof MJ = Grizzlies by 4.1)
SPURS-THUNDER (Pinnacle = Spurs by 3, Prof MJ = Spurs by 2.8)
76ERS-BLAZERS (Pinnacle = Blazers by 9.5, Prof MJ = Blazers by 7.6)
LAKERS-SUNS (Pinnacle = Suns by 6, Prof MJ = Suns by 5.2)

“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

Despite playing the second leg of back-to-back games, I’m taking the Pistons +5.5 versus Cleveland. My projections have the Cavaliers favorite by 3.3, so when the line opened at 3.5 / 4 in some bookies there wasn’t any value there. As of this morning, 76% of the bets on the spread have gone on Cleveland, moving the line to 5.5. Perhaps the public is reacting to Detroit’s 115-98 loss in Indiana last night. Prior to that game, the Pistons had won 5 of their last 7 games, while Cleveland has lost 4 of their last 6. Keep in mind that Kevin Love, Kyle Korver and J.R. Smith are all out for tonight.


“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

I suggest betting the 76ers +9.5 in Portland. Yes, their star player Joel Embiid is out for the season, and his backup Jahlil Okafor is questionable for tonight. But 9.5 points? Seems high to me, and my statistical models tend to agree. The Sixers beat the Blazers 93-92 in Philly earlier this year. The last time the 76ers played in Portland was a year ago, where the Blazers took it by a 108-105 score. The line opened at 10 and has dropped half a point following slightly more bets being placed on Philly.

“OKAY” BET (2 stars / 5):

We end today’s write-up by picking Memphis -2.5 versus the Clippers. Unlike the Cleveland-Detroit game, this time we are betting against the team playing a second game in as many nights. The Clippers lost 107-91 in Minnesota, a very disappointing result after beating Boston and Chicago. The Grizzlies are on a 3-game losing streak, which culminated with an embarrassing 13-point loss at home against the worst-team in the league, the Nets. The level of confidence is probably not very high in the Grizzlies locker room, but I can’t imagine the players not being focused and not looking for forgiveness from their home fans. The Clippers have won 2 of the 3 meetings this year (each team was able to win one game on the road).

A special thanks to those of you who have been reading my write-ups on a daily basis over the last several weeks! I really appreciate that you take some time out of your day to read my analyses.

Professor MJ
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/9/2017 1:33:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Professor-MJ:



- 5 STARS = 5-2
- 4 STARS = 3-2-1
- 3 STARS = 3-2
- 2 STARS = 4-4
- 1 STAR = 11-11


sorry for the typo, it should read 11-13 for 1-star bet
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/10/2017 10:09:20 AM
Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world!  

Good morning everyone! We raised our record on bets rated 3+ stars to 13-6-1 following yesterday’s couple of wins (Pistons +5.5 vs Cleveland and 76ers +9.5 in Portland). Unfortunately I don’t have any interesting value bets for tonight, which is surprising considering we have 8 games. At this time of writing the line on Boston-Denver is off the board, so this is our only chance to find something profitable. I will provide some guidelines below. For now, let’s have a look at today’s projections!  

MAGIC-HORNETS (Pinnacle = Hornets by 8, Prof MJ = Hornets by 8.6)
ROCKETS-BULLS (Pinnacle = Rockets by 4.5, Prof MJ = Rockets by 5.3)
PACERS-BUCKS (Pinnacle = Bucks by 2.5, Prof MJ = Bucks by 3.4)
WARRIORS-TIMBERWOLVES (Pinnacle = Warriors by 5, Prof MJ = Warriors by 5.1)
RAPTORS-HAWKS (Pinnacle = Hawks by 2, Prof MJ = Hawks by 1.9)
CELTICS-NUGGETS (Pinnacle = Off the board, Prof MJ = Celtics by 3.9)
NETS-MAVERICKS (Pinnacle = Mavericks by 11.5, Prof MJ = Mavericks by 10.9)
WIZARDS-KINGS (Pinnacle = Wizards by 8, Prof MJ = Wizards by 7.5)

As mentioned above, you could bet the Bucks -2.5 versus Indiana. If your own analyses indicate you should bet Milwaukee, then go ahead. If not, stay away from that game unless the spread moves to -2. In this case, I would recommend betting Milwaukee (1-star bet). The Pacers have been alternating wins and losses over the last 8 games: if the trend continues, they will lose tonight. Milwaukee is back in the playoff race after posting 4 straight wins, including nice games against the Clippers and the Raptors. This is the 3rd meeting between these two teams this year. Both games were won by Milwaukee (125-107 in Milwaukee and 116-100 in Indiana).  

My projections have the Celtics favorite by 3.9 points in Denver. On the Nuggets’ side, there are several injuries to note. Nikola Jokic is unlikely to play as he was still feeling very sick yesterday (he felt “very weak”). Their leading scorer Danilo Gallinari is questionable because he is dealing with vertigo. Even if he plays, he may be affected by it. Kenneth Faried is still out. The Celtics lost 2 straight games before rebounding nicely with a 99-86 win in Golden State. Hopefully it won’t be a letdown game for them. Boston has won their last two games in Denver.  

That being said, here are my suggestions: bet the Nuggets if the spread is 5 or more, bet the Celtics if it is -2.5 or lower (maybe you could go for it if you can grab -3.0 at +100).  

Cheers!  

Professor MJ
ChickPea387 PM ChickPea387
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Posted: 3/10/2017 5:31:55 PM
Interesting analysis today. I admire your self-control in not forcing anything. 

Celtics currently at -4, -110 in my book. No play for now.  
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Posted: 3/10/2017 7:37:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Professor-MJ:

Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world!  

Good morning everyone! We raised our record on bets rated 3+ stars to 13-6-1 following yesterday’s couple of wins (Pistons +5.5 vs Cleveland and 76ers +9.5 in Portland). Unfortunately I don’t have any interesting value bets for tonight, which is surprising considering we have 8 games. At this time of writing the line on Boston-Denver is off the board, so this is our only chance to find something profitable. I will provide some guidelines below. For now, let’s have a look at today’s projections!  

MAGIC-HORNETS (Pinnacle = Hornets by 8, Prof MJ = Hornets by 8.6)
ROCKETS-BULLS (Pinnacle = Rockets by 4.5, Prof MJ = Rockets by 5.3)
PACERS-BUCKS (Pinnacle = Bucks by 2.5, Prof MJ = Bucks by 3.4)
WARRIORS-TIMBERWOLVES (Pinnacle = Warriors by 5, Prof MJ = Warriors by 5.1)
RAPTORS-HAWKS (Pinnacle = Hawks by 2, Prof MJ = Hawks by 1.9)
CELTICS-NUGGETS (Pinnacle = Off the board, Prof MJ = Celtics by 3.9)
NETS-MAVERICKS (Pinnacle = Mavericks by 11.5, Prof MJ = Mavericks by 10.9)
WIZARDS-KINGS (Pinnacle = Wizards by 8, Prof MJ = Wizards by 7.5)

As mentioned above, you could bet the Bucks -2.5 versus Indiana. If your own analyses indicate you should bet Milwaukee, then go ahead. If not, stay away from that game unless the spread moves to -2. In this case, I would recommend betting Milwaukee (1-star bet). The Pacers have been alternating wins and losses over the last 8 games: if the trend continues, they will lose tonight. Milwaukee is back in the playoff race after posting 4 straight wins, including nice games against the Clippers and the Raptors. This is the 3rd meeting between these two teams this year. Both games were won by Milwaukee (125-107 in Milwaukee and 116-100 in Indiana).  

My projections have the Celtics favorite by 3.9 points in Denver. On the Nuggets’ side, there are several injuries to note. Nikola Jokic is unlikely to play as he was still feeling very sick yesterday (he felt “very weak”). Their leading scorer Danilo Gallinari is questionable because he is dealing with vertigo. Even if he plays, he may be affected by it. Kenneth Faried is still out. The Celtics lost 2 straight games before rebounding nicely with a 99-86 win in Golden State. Hopefully it won’t be a letdown game for them. Boston has won their last two games in Denver.  

That being said, here are my suggestions: bet the Nuggets if the spread is 5 or more, bet the Celtics if it is -2.5 or lower (maybe you could go for it if you can grab -3.0 at +100).  

Cheers!  

Professor MJ

Dropped to 2.5 in my book.... Lets do this MJ!  
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/10/2017 9:24:54 PM
I may not have time to post a full write-up tomorrow, but here is an official pick for Saturday: Bucks -2.5 versus Minnesota. Rated 4 stars out of 5 (my projections have Milwaukee as 5-point favorites). That's what the line was a few hours ago, now off the board while both teams are playing. I had time to place my bet, let's see if the line improves or not later on, but this pick is in!
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/10/2017 9:28:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ChickPea387:

Interesting analysis today. I admire your self-control in not forcing anything.  

Yep, it's always better to stay away rather than placing bets with negative expected value. Wait for the good one(s)!
koreatine PM koreatine
Joined: Dec 2014
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koreatine
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Posted: 3/10/2017 9:41:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Professor-MJ:


Yep, it's always better to stay away rather than placing bets with negative expected value. Wait for the good one(s)!


I knew it'd only be a matter of time until you made some tweaks and figured this out.  Great job Professor.
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