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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: What we have learned so far...
BluejayBuckets send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 2/24/2012 10:25:49 AM

YTD 89-71-1 +43.2 units

Yesterday 4-2 +8.4 units

Finished before all star break run of 24-9 (73%) +51.2 units

So what have we learned about teams before the all star break??? All input is welcome.

 

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#2
Posted: 2/24/2012 10:27:48 AM
okc is awesome at home
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#3
Posted: 2/24/2012 10:28:38 AM
i sent u friend request
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#4
Posted: 2/24/2012 10:31:39 AM
the knicks need more than lin to beat the heat!! 
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#5
Posted: 2/24/2012 10:49:08 AM

Here is my take on a couple of teams...

Magic- This team lives and dies by the 3 ball. They have no one who can create their own shot late in a shot clock. They are 5th in scoring defense overal and that is how they win games. They dominate the glass because of Dwight. The real question is how long will Dwight be there? When they lose Dwight how will they score? Their defense will become really bad when Howard gets traded as they rely to much on him to man the middle and clean up the easy drives. Rebounding will become a problem.

76er's- This team has a few disturbing stats. First off their leading scorer comes off the bench. Secondly he is only averaging 15.7 ppg. On the plus side they do have 6 guys averaging double figures which is outstanding. They finished on a 5 game losing streak in which they only scored over 90 points once. The reason this team has been winning is because of thier defense. Allowing only 87.5  ppg so far this year which is 1st in the NBA. The real question is does this team have enough fire power to keep winning games? If they can make a trade for a true scorer I think it would highly benefit them for the rest of the season.

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#6
Posted: 2/24/2012 11:37:19 AM
OKC does what they want when they want with no regards towards your feelings.
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#7
Posted: 2/24/2012 12:33:15 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by oneinfour:

OKC does what they want when they want with no regards towards your feelings.

Do you think this would imply when they face the Heat?

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#8
Posted: 2/24/2012 12:35:05 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by mainmanmainman2:

i sent u friend request

Just accepted it.

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book21star
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#9
Posted: 2/24/2012 1:16:57 PM
That those 8 teams in the east are basically set.
The Lakers still need a point guard.
The Grizzlies haven't been a complete team yet. Still a dangerous teams in west.
Greg Popovich best coach in NBA today.
When the Knicks play high pressure defensive teams they are in trouble.
The Magics are a live by the 3 die by the 3 teams and Dwight Howard thats it. Won't go far in playoffs(especially if they play the Hawks)

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#10
Posted: 2/24/2012 1:22:31 PM
never to bet on the bobcats and wizards.

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#11
Posted: 2/24/2012 1:25:02 PM
i'm a lakers fan and i see kobe shooting the team to the ground.  he can't make shots every night and when they get to the playoffs (i hope)...he is going to have to score a lot to win and i don't see that happening.

i'm pretty sure we all know that. 
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#12
Posted: 2/24/2012 3:30:57 PM
betting on magic games sucks.
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#13
Posted: 2/24/2012 3:45:46 PM
the east is an abortion--the west has a +39 su record and the season is only half done (and the west isn't even that strong this year!!)
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#14
Posted: 2/24/2012 3:48:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ossigor:

betting on magic games sucks.

I'd expand this to say don't bet the Magic (either for or against).  If they get up for a game, they can hang with good teams.  If they don't get up, they get blown out.  You can't predict when this will happen!

Just leave them out of your bets.

Also, the Bobcats aren't "due" and neither are all the other bad teams out there.
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#15
Posted: 2/24/2012 8:06:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigJohnStud:

the knicks need more than lin to beat the heat!! 


The Bulls will need more than D Rose to beat the heat.

The only team that will defeat the Miami Heat in the finals is themselves.
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#16
Posted: 2/24/2012 8:14:53 PM
As much as I hate it the Heat look so much better than they were last year, and they will win the NBA championship.

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#17
Posted: 2/25/2012 2:29:44 AM
dont bet bobcats or wizards !!

philly 12-2 w/ hawes 8-12 w/o

hornets covered 5 straight shhhhhhh

blazers are better with crawford at point who is coming alive for them. felton may be good off bench? batum is great both sides, stud!

lakers are fadeable on road

kyrie irving is better than rose was as a rookie

okc really good

pop best coach, karl 2nd

rubio is for real

Posted using a mobile device.
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#18
Posted: 2/25/2012 8:37:04 AM
that the celtics start trying now
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#19
Posted: 2/25/2012 9:13:52 AM
Heat will win the championship. 

That's all there is to it.
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#20
Posted: 2/25/2012 10:01:22 AM
bet atlanta against orlando lol 
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#21
Posted: 2/25/2012 5:09:20 PM
I really don't know what "we" have learned so far but here are a few things I have learned, and I would remind doubters that my stuff is not off the top of my head or some sort of impression I have. It is based in solid, rock hard statistics that I take the time to track and compile myself, so watch it with the "you're nuts" responses.

Fact: Home court advantage (HCA) is at or near an all time low. In a league where the home team traditionally wins about 64 or 65% of the games (last year 65.7%) home teams are winning only 58.8% of all games this year, 295-207. In the last 115 games played home teams have outscored visitors, in regulation time, 96.6 to 94.5, or by only 2.1 points per game. Sorry, I do not include O.T. and use per game stats because that would distort what I can expect in 48 minutes. If you want an overtime factor built into your handicaps do whatever you want to do, but I don't know how you would balance probability if two teams had an unequal number of overtime games.

Since the league average for regulation time scoring is now 94.47 ppg., I am computing home team power rating /.9893 - visitor power rating x .9893, a net home court advantage of only 2.033 points if two average teams play.

My personal opinion of this fact is that with the compressed schedule we are seeing an unusual number of b2b and b2b2b2b games by home teams and often the visitor is coming in actually better rested than the home team.

Opinion: One other concept to throw out, and this occurs every year, is "fade the bad teams, bet on the good ones". That would be great if linemakers were stupid and made lines based on true or perceived power ratings, but they aren't stupid and that is why they are gainfully employed, OK? What linemakers know, because it is part of their job, and I track, because it effects my view of a game, is that on any given night, on average, 69% of all bettors are inclined to back the Thunder, while only 33% are willing to back the Bobcats. Result? The Thunder are assigned an extra point or two, or three, whatever it takes to balance the action. If assigned a higher burden than they can carry it becomes the straw that broke the camels back. Some very good and very bad teams will both be close to 50-50 ATS the balance of the season. Play good, fade bad, won't work.
BOL


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#22
Posted: 2/27/2012 10:08:51 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by LockBurger:

that the celtics start trying now

I'm sorry I like the Celtics as well but this team isn't much better than .500 with their old legs and this compressed schedule. In the playoffs they might be dangerous but depends who and where they are seeded.

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#23
Posted: 2/27/2012 10:13:06 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by fresh4lyph:

dont bet bobcats or wizards !!

philly 12-2 w/ hawes 8-12 w/o

hornets covered 5 straight shhhhhhh

blazers are better with crawford at point who is coming alive for them. felton may be good off bench? batum is great both sides, stud!

lakers are fadeable on road

kyrie irving is better than rose was as a rookie

okc really good

pop best coach, karl 2nd

rubio is for real

Agree with most of these points...

However, Blazers should use some felton and another player as trade bait so they can get a legit scorer and play Batum more. Crawford excels coming off the bench and is a liability on the defensive end not a starter.

Kyrie might be better than Rose was as a rookie but he will never have the athleticism that Rose has. Rose has improved so much from his rookie season. I agree Kyrie is good but he will not be better than Rose in the long run.  

Appreciate the thoughts.

 

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#24
Posted: 2/27/2012 10:13:44 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by spoon_ek:

bet atlanta against orlando lol 

This is very true Orlando just can't beat them.

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#25
Posted: 2/27/2012 11:00:42 AM
minny has the roster to play with anyone but only bet them as a underdog and not a favorite
bet against orlando on friday
the crowd for the lac game is better than the crowd for lal 
bet for the team that is playin without a star player 
bet overs when bargiani is playin for raptors

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