So, I posted my plays for the first time last week and went 2-0 (Vikings and Rams), I also bet the night games later and got the Ravens and Panthers right... So, lets try again while on a roll.
Letting you guys know that my picks are based mostly on trends, but I dont bet them blindly at all, couple examples: Bucs this week, they're in a awesome spot, but they are the kind of team that screw you even in the right spot, just like the Texans last week.
Dolphins +7.5 (+100) @ Patriots 1 unit
This play is based mostly on the fact that the Dolphins have been very good over the last years in an underdog role, while the Patriots have struggled mightly as a big favourite since 2007. Mixing that with the fact that they're actually playing hard for their new coach, and the Pats are really bunged up in the O line, and I like the Dolphins.
Detroit Lions +5 vs Chiefs 1 unit
This one is one of the few spots that the primary reason of my play is line value, I just feel like the line is way off, the Chiefs are not 5 points better than the Lions without Jamal Charles. I know the Lions just fired their OC, which makes this a little dangerous, but it could actually be a blessing in desguise just as easily. Also the fact that Andy Reid struggles going into a bye (6-9 ATS) makes me like the Lions here.
Bears +1 vs Vikings 1 unit
This one might look odd, since I made good money on the Vikings on the road last week, but there is a big difference this time. This game will be played in an outdoors stadium, and the Vikings franchise overall have struggled in such stadiums (14-26 ATS since 2008). Also a John Fox team coming off a bye (9-5 ATS) and we're getting great value with this home dog. Only thing stopping me from making a bigger play here is Jay Cutler.
New York Jets -2 @ Oakland 2 units
This is the rare example, when its a great spot for one team and a terrible spot for the other, which is when you have to go big. Lets start with the home team, the Raiders are the kind of team that struggles with success, after a big win last week, I think they'll be really flat here (The Raiders are 9-24 ATS after a straight up win since 2009). For the Jets, there is an angle that has been very profitable that fits them (Since 2011, favourites coming off a straight up loss are an amazing 31-13 ATS) which equals 70.5%! One thing that worries me just a bit is that they could also be a little flat after a big game against the Patriots, but I believe Todd Bowles is the kind of coach that will have his team ready.
Packers -3 @ Denver 2 units
This is a classic example of a spot where you really have to check the trends and not bet them blindly, lets start with the Packers: Mike McCarthy teams are an amazing 9-0 ATS coming off a bye. Aaron Rodgers is 25-19 ATS on the road as long as he isnt favored by more than 7 (Contrary to popular belief that he struggles on the road). Lets move to the Broncos now Peyton Manning is 14-7 ATS as an underdog (5-3 as a home dog) and 16-9 on Sunday Night Football. So, even game no play right? Not for me, as I think you have to take Peyton's numbers with a grain of salt, since he clearly is not the same QB he once was, so yeah, I LOVE the Packers to win here.
Colts +7 @ Panthers 1 unit
Another time that I'll fade a team I had last week. Andrew Luck is 13-4 ATS off a loss and the Panthers are in a huge look ahead spot as they'll have the undefeated Packers next week, I also dont like them as big favourites at all, so I'll gladly take the points here and hope Andrew Luck looks like his old self (extra day off rest should help)
So this is it for now, I would welcome some discussion, good luck this week everyone!!