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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Werker's NFL Week 9
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#1
Posted: 10/31/2011 12:58:13 PM
Overall Record: 37-19-2
Sides and Totals: 34-16-2
Props: 2-2-0
Parlays: 1-0-0
Teasers: 0-1-0

4-5 in week 8 (worst week of the season for me, but hopefully not a sign of things to come)

Early Leans:

Bills -1 
Redskins +3.5
Browns +10.5 (only if Hillis is playing)
Saints -9
Pats -9
Steelers -3.5
49ers/Redskins u38.5
Bucs/Saints o51 (only if Blount is playing)
Giants/Pats o52.5

No Line Leans:
Eagles (anything under 7 points)
Raiders (anything under 7 points, only if McFadden plays)
Cowboys (anything under 14 points)
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Europa
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#2
Posted: 10/31/2011 1:13:37 PM
One may want to buy off that PIT -3.5 hook, often times the scores ended with 3 pts margin between those two teams. i like Saints and Cowboys in a 10 pts teaser. Good luck, Werker.
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#3
Posted: 10/31/2011 2:17:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Europa:

One may want to buy off that PIT -3.5 hook, often times the scores ended with 3 pts margin between those two teams. i like Saints and Cowboys in a 10 pts teaser. Good luck, Werker.

Yeah, that's one game where buying the hook may pay off. It's one of my weaker leans though, and I'm not a huge fan of increasing the juice unless I feel that it would make it EXTREMELY unlikely to lose.

I'm not so sure about the Saints in a teaser. Seems to me that they're more likely to just cover outright or have a tough time covering the tease anyway. 
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#4
Posted: 10/31/2011 2:19:22 PM
Werker, I know the Steelers are looking for revenge but I just cant get a feel for this game. Damn tough game, gl.............
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#5
Posted: 10/31/2011 2:24:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Werker:


Yeah, that's one game where buying the hook may pay off. It's one of my weaker leans though, and I'm not a huge fan of increasing the juice unless I feel that it would make it EXTREMELY unlikely to lose.

I'm not so sure about the Saints in a teaser. Seems to me that they're more likely to just cover outright or have a tough time covering the tease anyway. 

my book just opened Saints -7.5 and  i bought the hook for -120, no teaser for me. i am looking at Cowboys/Texans/Bears 10 pts teaser. And i took a shot at Ravens +3.5 already.  

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#6
Posted: 10/31/2011 3:25:13 PM

public perception is that the Steelers are back, and the Ravens are not that good.  Well, if you keep the ball for 40 minutes you will beat the Pats every time.  They won;t be able to do that against Baltimore.  Baltimore plays to the level of their competition and will be ready for Pitt.  +3.5 pts is a gift! 

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#7
Posted: 10/31/2011 4:18:22 PM
PTB: I'm probably going to pass on this game. Steelers been looking good lately, but Ravens at home should win this game outright if they show up. That being said, they're WAY too erratic to put money on. 

Europa: Already decided I'm laying off the Saints this week. Another of the super erratic teams. I just don't feel comfortable laying so many points in a division game against a team that proved they know how to beat them. As a rule, I'm never going to fade some teams in a teaser. The Eagles are one of those teams. There's no reason to open yourself up to a blowout. Houston and Dallas are definite teaser candidates. 

Maverick11: I think you're crazy to think any side of this game is a gift. I've already said I'm passing on the game, so I'm not going to argue for the Pitt side, but nothing about this one looks easy to foresee. 
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#8
Posted: 10/31/2011 4:46:04 PM
PTB: I'm probably going to pass on this game. Steelers been looking good lately, but Ravens at home should win this game outright if they show up. That being said, they're WAY too erratic to put money on. 

Steelers are at home but your right about this game being to tough to cap scores usually come down to 3 between these teams and whats to say the ravens won't come out with the same game plan they did the first game where they won 35-7 and win 28-14? stay away from this one better games on the board
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#9
Posted: 10/31/2011 4:51:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by winnipeg_pimp:

PTB: I'm probably going to pass on this game. Steelers been looking good lately, but Ravens at home should win this game outright if they show up. That being said, they're WAY too erratic to put money on. 

Steelers are at home but your right about this game being to tough to cap scores usually come down to 3 between these teams and whats to say the ravens won't come out with the same game plan they did the first game where they won 35-7 and win 28-14? stay away from this one better games on the board

Good call. I'm a bit under the weather today. Totally missed that. It's also the reason I'm not taking any early plays this week. I'm not thinking 100% clearly. But yeah, we come to the same conclusion here. No play. I would say, though, that I think it's VERY unlikely the Ravens win by more than one score. 
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#10
Posted: 10/31/2011 5:10:12 PM
ya it's very unlikey the rams beat the saints straight up lol  this nfl this year i went 2-3 last week loosing on the pats,saints, and cowboys but winning on minny and buffalo. I like your plays usually always look for your threads keep up the good work what do u think of my leans so far this week?

Atlanta -7: I know Indys due to cover again but think they can control the clock with turner and colts are looking more and more every week like they've given up.

Ne -9: Agree pats have a good record after a loss that divisions gonna be tight this year with buffalo playing well and jets playing average.

Sf -3.5: I know taking a road fave with the hook but Sf beat the lions and cincy and philly on the road pretty impressive if u ask me and wash coulden't put up any points on a shitty buffalo defense what are they going to be able to do to this defense?

Den +9: Imagine this line is gonna drop but i don't trust carson palmer i could see this comming down to a fg really liking the points.

Hou-10: If hillis doesn't play again what are the browns gonna do back to back road games for them and back to back home games for the texans

Dallas agree

Gb -whatever: wanna keep riding them till they loose sd will be off a short week at home they don't impress me this year anyway like the cheifs tonight home dog on monday night.
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#11
Posted: 10/31/2011 5:26:38 PM
wPimp: 

Atlanta -7: I think the Falcons are a seriously overrated team. And it's hard for Indy's stock to be any lower than it is right now after the Saints embarrassed them and the average Titans beat them by three scores. I could see this one staying close, and I lean Colts here, but I absolutely refuse to put money on them until they prove they aren't as bad as they seem. It's a no play for me.

NE -9: I think this is just too many points here. The Giants might have THE best pass rush in the business right now, and the Pats can't defend anything right now. It's embarrassing. I don't see how this team wins more than one playoff game without some major improvement defensively. The more I've looked at this one, the more I've liked the Giants with the points, but being a Giant fan, I know how they can just throw games away. This one is Giants or no play for me, but this is way too many points to take the Pats. 

SF -3.5: After getting shut out against the Bills, the Skins stock is at a season low. Meanwhile, the 49ers are just not as good as their record indicates. They are just SO average offensively. They absolutely rely on their defense to win. While there's not much to like about the Skins, they are still 2-1 SU at home. I just don't think SF should be giving more than 3. I'm just very undecided about this game thus far. 

Den +9: This totally depends on if McFadden plays. I like the Broncos if he's out. It's probably a no play for me if he's in.

Hou -10: If Hillis is out, I pretty much agree with taking the Texans. I think he'll play though, and I think this is probably too many points in that case. 

GB: It might be a big whatever. We'll see how things go tonight.
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#12
Posted: 10/31/2011 7:49:21 PM

Werker, i saw you changing heart over a few leans as of now. Often times, your first impressions on the picks are the best. You could have won the Niners -8.5 if not hedged with Browns +9.  The first sides you played last week have been winners, Vikes, Niners and Bills. Keep the winning plays coming.

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#13
Posted: 11/1/2011 7:20:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Europa:

Werker, i saw you changing heart over a few leans as of now. Often times, your first impressions on the picks are the best. You could have won the Niners -8.5 if not hedged with Browns +9.  The first sides you played last week have been winners, Vikes, Niners and Bills. Keep the winning plays coming.

I disagree. It was a smart play to hedge the 49ers because the game was exactly like he thought it would be. 49ers had a 7 point lead late and that game could have easily ended 17-10, instead niners got a FG and won by 10.

He also leaned Pats and then switched to Steelers which one.

That being said, I really like the Bills this week. Also like a Atl/Philly 6 pt teaser. I would like to kno ur thoughts Werker.

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#14
Posted: 11/1/2011 8:25:15 PM

Werker...I've been watching your picks and reading your posts...usually you and I are on the same page with our picks, but this week we seem to be opposite on most picks.

I understand what you're saying about SF's offense, but the same can be said for the Skins.  This isn't the same Skins team that started out well.  They have too many injuries.  Last week they were dominated by the Bills defense....who are ranked at the bottom of the league against both the run and the pass!!!  SF not only plays good defense, but they also have very good special teams play which helps them with short fields.

I was on the Bills last week, but not sure about them this week.  I think they get smacked pretty good.  They haven't played good teams well this year (good win against NE, but NE's D sucks).

Anyways, GL this week. 

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#15
Posted: 11/1/2011 8:30:12 PM

Forgot to mention that I really like your Dallas lean. Will be on them myself.

 

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#16
Posted: 11/1/2011 10:10:41 PM

I took Giants -10 bought 1 pont

 

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#17
Posted: 11/1/2011 10:38:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:

I disagree. It was a smart play to hedge the 49ers because the game was exactly like he thought it would be. 49ers had a 7 point lead late and that game could have easily ended 17-10, instead niners got a FG and won by 10.

He also leaned Pats and then switched to Steelers which one.

That being said, I really like the Bills this week. Also like a Atl/Philly 6 pt teaser. I would like to kno ur thoughts Werker.

You disagree or not, when you won you're smart and dump when you lost.

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#18
Posted: 11/1/2011 11:10:05 PM

I mean I disagree that it was a bad idea to hedge even though the bet won. SF could have easily won by only 7.

Win or lose I know Werker is smarter than me.

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#19
Posted: 11/1/2011 11:17:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:

I mean I disagree that it was a bad idea to hedge even though the bet won. SF could have easily won by only 7.

Win or lose I know Werker is smarter than me.

Werker is a solid capper and you pick the right guy to read his threads. Good luck to your plays.  

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#20
Posted: 11/1/2011 11:23:59 PM
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#21
Posted: 11/2/2011 12:54:57 AM
BUF -1 is 
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#22
Posted: 11/2/2011 11:18:33 AM
earthWake, Europa: First off, thanks for the props. Second, I'm obviously not happy with my decision to buy back the 49ers play because it ended up winning, but I'd do it again. Like earthWake said, it was RIGHT around the number, and it ended up being exactly the kind of game I thought it would be. I mean, the browns actually had the Niners stopped on their last drive that was for the cover, but a facemask extended the drive. Just saying, it could EASILY have gone the other way. Not that that doesn't happen a lot, but I don't like betting games where that's what I think is going to happen.

As far as changing my mind from initial leans, I kind of do that a lot because those initial leans are purely instinctual, and while that's usually a good thing to trust, I trust my capping process more. When they conflict, I usually just stay away (like the 49ers/Browns, though I regret locking that in early), unless I feel strongly the other way (like the Steelers/Pats). 

BigLionsFan: I'm just not a believer in the 49ers and they've started to get overvalued. They're obviously the better team in this matchup against the Redskins, but they're just not as good as they've been. To be favored by more than a FG on the road should be reserved for a huge discrepancy in talent. It just isn't there in this game. I might very well just lay off this game, but I'm still leaning Skins as of now. (Also, just a note, the Bills defense is far from the bottom. They're average, and prone to good games and bad.)


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#23
Posted: 11/2/2011 1:15:49 PM
Werker, you may want to take a look at Pats -2.5/Saints -2.5 six points teaser. A good team is not supposed to lose two games in a row?
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#24
Posted: 11/2/2011 4:08:33 PM
bills playin pretty good @home, jets not so good on the road. bills should be able to run the ball against the jets. jets usually beat up on the bills, kinda like the pats so this might be a good spot for the bills to get a win against em this week.  
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#25
Posted: 11/2/2011 4:26:15 PM
Best of Luck
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