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Author: [Pro Golf] Topic: 2012 WGC Match Play
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#1
Posted: 2/20/2012 2:23:45 PM
(7-2 +10.79u) Last Week and Overall in 2012

Its the most world wonderful time of the year... MY favorite tourney so I am guareentedd to lose big here... but I specifically am working odd hours so I can catch a solid amount of golf on Wed and THurs

Futures:
1u
Tiger +1350
.5u
Kaymer +2493
.25u
Mannaserro +13463
F. Molinari +10970
Ryo +16455

(I track futures differently and they count as one big win or one loss)

1st Round
Woods -224 2 Units
Els +166 2 Units
F. Molinari -104
Stanley -117
Bubba -133
Oosthuizen +102
Garcia -200
Schwartzel -144
Manessaro +157
Ishikawa +152
Westwood + Mcilroy + Kaymer +238
Woods Spread*
Els Spread*

*These plays are not in yet... waiting on 5dimes to open up.... may not even get lines on them... But 5dimes usually has some option that will be close to even... I am assuming -1.5 holes and +1.5 holes respectively...


- Woods here is a no brainer... He can spray it off the tee here and still make a bunch of birdies...  I dont blame for his final round at peeble... it was tough condidtions that day and I felt he played admirable despite the putter not working... these greens are like video game greens... he cruises against a guy who plays 90% of his on the Euro tour... I think...
- Els sneaks into this field as baiscally a wildcard.. Hes gotta be thrilled... Thinking he could ride that wave into a solid run... Faces Dinald in the first round.. buts that why your getting the value... For a great match play golfer I like the value.... 
- I like Molinari to make a run here despite being 0-2 here career... Thimas Bjorn beat Tiger last year and rode that wave to sucess for most of 2011... He doesnt have that opportuinity this year... Molinari has had alot of experience in match play being on Ryder cup and Seve cup teams for the last 3 years
- Stanley is a hot golfer right now... Poor CHoi.. Its gonna take 9-10 birdies from CHoi on the day to take him down
- Crane has been embarassingly smoked here a few times... Bubba is making plenty of birdies this season... THis one might come down to the wire but Bubba with his length will have PW in at 17 + 18
- Matchplay is just not Badds cup of tea, which is why he skipped this event the last two years... He is not an intense guy... You cant win at matchplay if your just gonna go out there and play your game... Which is what e is gonna do... which is what he always does...
- Bit the juice on Sergio... This play is 100% because of his final round at Riviera
- I dont think Butch Harmon understands Gary Woodland is not Tiger Woods... I wood probably fade Woodland on this course anyway but his swing is in dissarry... Lets hope its just a transition phase and not a significant career setback... Who knows he might have it all figured out this week...
- Manassero plays the game so beautifully it tugs at the heart of the traditionalist in me... Webb Simpson is not a guy who is gonna bomb it out there and put pressure on anyone... Manassero is just gonna hit green after green and really put pressure on Simpson who is probably already feeling it being a #2 Seed
- Ryo plays better when he is in the WGC events with primier fields... Add that to a potential letdown for an emotional win at Riviera (despite his subdued attitude)... I also like one these young guns to make a run to the elite 8 to hopefully play Tiger
- Parlaying 3 of the 4 #1 seeds... Seems like it will be a fun play.. one of them sure to lose... But darn him if he does... 

Got all my plays in before you guy move my lines... ... I always enjoy this week despite I almost always lose money here... Hopefuly really doing my research and getting it down on paper works this year...

GL ALL

 will post lines for other plays sometime late tuesday... 
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#2
Posted: 2/20/2012 2:25:49 PM
futures thoughts:

- Why Tiger?  I love the fact that he is lurking here as a lower seed... He will have solid matches against solid opponents all week and going into a probable semi or final... He is playing well enough to win in his favorite format... This seems like the place where he will get his first win, (even though in my book the Chevron is a win)
- Last years winner at long odds... this tourney has proven that there are guys that love this course and succedd putting on these greens... Despite the flat start to the year I give him a chance in what I believe is the easiest quarter of the bracket....
- Lotto tickets to finish
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#3
Posted: 2/20/2012 2:26:27 PM
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#4
Posted: 2/20/2012 2:26:53 PM
futures thoughts:

- Why Tiger?  I love the fact that he is lurking here as a lower seed... He will have solid matches against solid opponents all week and going into a probable semi or final... He is playing well enough to win in his favorite format... This seems like the place where he will get his first win, (even though in my book the Chevron is a win)
- Last years finalist at long odds... this tourney has proven that there are guys that love this course and succedd putting on these greens... Despite the flat start to the year I give him a chance in what I believe is the easiest quarter of the bracket, despite having the most players that have had success in this event....
- Lotto tickets to finish
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#5
Posted: 2/20/2012 5:56:24 PM

BOL ADC..

I like Tiger to win too..

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#6
Posted: 2/22/2012 1:34:16 AM
I doubled up on every play.. new lines, almost everyline moved like crazy and against me... but I feel good because I know the public largely dictates these lines...

Futures:
Tiger +1375 (2u)
Kaymer +2347 (1u)
Manaserro +12982 (.5u)
Molinari +11735
Ryo +17634

Matchups:
Woods -215 (4u)
Els +189 (4u)
F. Molinari -105 (2u)
Stanley -109
Bubba -123
Oosthuizen +106
Garcia -200
Schwartzel -139
Manessaro +159
Ishikawa +164
Westwood + Mcilroy + Kaymer +232

Still hoping for spread plays...  maybe in the morning....

GL ALL


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#7
Posted: 2/22/2012 2:50:29 AM
GL ADC  
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#8
Posted: 2/22/2012 10:43:59 PM
I liked your analysis for round 1 and it paid off. Nice day today!.... I'd like to hear your thoughts on round 2. I'm leaning towards Bradley- he just looks super confident right now and playing great. Dustin Johnson- got the monkey off his back with a match play win, also molinari looked terrible, he tweeted that he has no confidence in the putter right now and it showed today, Bjorn handed him the match. Stricker- I like his style in this tourny, plus oosthuizen has only played like 2 rounds in the past couple months. I'll give him credit for playing well round 1 but the lack of play has gotta make him play inconsistent and lets be honest baddeley never put any pressure on him today
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#9
Posted: 2/22/2012 10:46:16 PM
so how did round 1 fair 4 u
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#10
Posted: 2/22/2012 10:53:42 PM
Stats- are you asking me or or ADC?
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#11
Posted: 2/22/2012 11:24:30 PM
indeed it was a good day and it is always better to be lucky than good... 

Am not capping till the morning...  I made a bunch of money today but it was not as much as I could have won if i got better lines...

Will post 9-10am tommorrow once i hve made my plays
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#12
Posted: 2/22/2012 11:25:37 PM
Awesomeness  
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#13
Posted: 2/23/2012 1:11:11 AM
All capped but havent got my lines yet...

GL ALL

Futures:
2u
Tiger +1375
1u
Kaymer +2347
.5u
Manaserro +12982
Molinari +11735
Ryo +17634

(10-1 +28.78u) 1st Round

2nd Round:
4u
Ryo
Karlsson
Day
2u
Els 
Stricker
Molinari
Rock
Snedeker
Rory + Bradley

- As I said before I love Ryo in these WGC events as he seems to step us his game when the competetion is class... He was helped by a collaspe by Haas but he made alot of birdies to finish and is putting well enough to win again
- Westwood Won A Match!!!!  Good for him finally... But the fact is he sucks in this format... karlsson ha 7 birdies in 13 holes yest... Half as many will get it done tomorrow
- Day was also another recipient of a collapse, but given his talent level should have never been in that situation in the first place... He has gotta feel like hes got a new life... All that Day has ever been missing from his game is aggressiveness... This is a bet tht is hoping he will come out tomrrow freewhelling his driver...
- When I picked Els over Donald it wasnt because I thought it was good value for an upset, it was because I thought he could make a run here... I would have bet him against anyone... I just happened to get value... I know players say they dont look ahead but he know that most of the top playes in his bracket are out...
- Oosty came out hot to start his round yesterday but quickly faded and was scrambling all day... THe difference between him and Baddeley was a missed 2 footer on 15...  No gifts from Stricker tomorrow...
- Molinari is anther guy I think could make a run... Oodles of match play experience... Dustin Johnson was all over the place yesterday and would not have won had he not chipped in 3-4 times
- Maybe its the hair but Rock has become a crowd favorite and will have alot of support seeing as he is playing the most forgettable player in the field... On top of it he is playing solid
- Stanley won the worst match of the day... he won with only 4 birdies on the day and was only even par on the par 5's... With a coin flip spread I would lean havily on Snedaker...
- Rory is Rory... Keegan's style of play should irk the cool but still traditional Jimenez... Sergio tried to get in his head alittle with the Bright Bue shoes and it almost worked...keegan's gesturing, time wasting, spitting and fidgetting are gonna eventually start wearing on the Mechanic

Will post lines tomorrow Morning... Might make changes but somethign strange would have to happen.. Like weird injury news or a drastic weather change...

GL ALL


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#14
Posted: 2/23/2012 11:08:27 AM
Ryo +106
Karlsson +149
Day -128
Els +104
Stricker -133
Molinari +120
Rock +117
Snedeker -104
Rory + Bradley +131

GL ALL


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#15
Posted: 2/23/2012 11:27:54 AM
I like a lot of your plays, GL ADC.  BTW I want to see Bradley play at the Open, the Brits are gonna lose it with all the spitting he does.  They complain when Tiger spits and he does not do it (spit that is) as nearly as much as Bradley.
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#16
Posted: 2/23/2012 10:42:56 PM
ROCKED LIKE A HURRICANE TODAY

2-7 Today with a number of futures losing... but still up for the week and I aint gonna stop making plays...

ONLY PLAY LEFT:
Futures:
1u
Kaymer +2347

(12-8 +8.16u) WEEK

Will post tomorrow morning... GL ALL



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#17
Posted: 2/24/2012 12:51:05 AM
BET OF THE WEEK

3rd Round:

10u
Watney over Westwood +125

- Watney has taken out Westwood the last two years in this event... he is putting well and remember Westwood has never been to the third round before... Great value for me...

5u
Rory Over M.A. Jimenez -225
Wilson Over Johnson +120
Laird Over Lawrie -120

- Rory is Rory... Age will prevail tomorrow, but the play was much juicer than I would have liked
- Still dont like how justin is playing...  Wilson consistents will wear down Johnson... Wilson aint finding the desert any time soon and Johnson will get no free holes... If there was O/U betting I would unload on this match going to 18...
- this is a play that will definately hit if gets windy, and will probably hit if it doesnt... Laird has been very consistent all tourney and leads Lawrie in GIR, birdies made, and putts per hole for the week...


4 plays... these plays are with a friends accounts so if I lose I have to write a check tomorrow... Profit tomorrow is a must...

GL ALL




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#18
Posted: 2/24/2012 12:55:07 AM
What were the odds on Watney vs Woods?
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#19
Posted: 2/24/2012 12:56:04 AM
BOL to ya.

I just put 5 bucks on Dustin Johnson to win the tourney at 9/1 also punt 5 bucks on Jiminez at 28/1 just for fun...but I think Brandt Snedeker has a good chance to win as well (he's 14/1 I think). 
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#20
Posted: 2/24/2012 9:28:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PatrickBateman:

What were the odds on Watney vs Woods?

woods -130, Watney +110


3-2 Today (All Futures lose, one loss counted)

picked up a small profit today of 5u

(15-10 +13.16u) WEEK

ADDED:
Quarters:
7u
Laird +147
Bae +190
Mahan +106
4u
Hanson -116
Hanson to win +900\

- I cannot pass up what I see as massive value with Laird and Bae... Both guys are not winning due to poor play from there opponents but with birdies and clutch putting... Westwood is playing great but is still not a matchplay type of guy... I need to see him hit a clutch putt or knock it stiff in a tough situation for him to get my money... I will go as far as to say Laird should win.... He has better ball control than Westwood and can hit a number of different trajectories... greens will be firmer tomorrow and wind possibly being a factor will only aid our guy Laird... In contrast to Bae, Rory's Day 3 win was almost entirely due to Jimenez's poor play (only 1-2 birdies on the day for Miguel, and none in the first 9 holes)... With a 340 yd 3 wood aside... Rory hit poor shot after poor shot yesterday...
- Kucher shoots great scores on this course but is not a match play guy... Give me Mahan 1 DN with 3 holes to play and I will still take him because he will come up with the goods... I watched him shoot a 62 at congressional in hot, humid conditions... when this kid gets going he is a birdie machine... Perfect for match play... based on yesterday he is going... But Kucher is definately a tough out...
- Hanson is playing better than anyone in the field IMO... Seeing as he hasnt trailed this week I think he can take care of Wilson... He is absolutely destrying the first 4-5 holes of this golf course... My only fear is that he will struggle on the last 3 holes because he has never even seen them this week



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#21
Posted: 2/26/2012 9:01:58 AM
1-3 yest (counted Hanson bets as one loss)

(16-13 -2.06u) WEEK

Well thats how you lose money... What shitty friggin golf yest... Absolute garbage play for Bae and Laird.. what dropoffs, what choke jobs...

Like I said I have never won money betting this event... On top of it I have to pay up right away for these losses... Bet on his account one more time.. I really would hate having to write him a check tomorrow... just hoping for the best...  Rambling now... ANYWAY...

HERE WE GO... plays were made last night...

SemiFinals:
7u
Rory +102
Mahan -136
5u
Mahan To Win +320

- As I have said all week Rory is Rory... Westwood is playing we but didnt really make many birdies to beat Laird.. just let his guy collapse... This is guarenteed to be a good match... Rory has been played the final holes more times than westwood and has he advantage...
- Mahan is my play... he is making more birdies than anyone in the field and that is what matchplay is all about.. Wilson, Rory, and Westwood are here with consistent rounds but not Match play greatness... Matchplay is about a birdie or bust mentality... Mahan has that right now and the fact that 3 of the 4 semifinalists have gotten here without it I have to chalk up as being a total fluke... For example in Rory's oppenents in his first 4 matches have made a grand total of 8 birdies against him... EIGHT, REALLY EIGHT? If that ain't a fluke.... How is he here?  Probably similar stats if you look at Westwood and Wilson... 

Mayakoba Classic

3u
Summerhays to Win +170

- A two stroke lead is gonna feel like alot tomorrow if the weather plays a factor, the tees are all the way back, and the pins are tight... He is at towards the top of the tourney in putting stats which I think is very important... This course is a tough one despite the fact it is a second tier event... If anyone goes way low tomorrow I will be very surprised... 

GL ALL

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#22
Posted: 2/26/2012 1:39:33 PM

(18-13 +12.08u) WEEK

Still Pending:

5u
Mahan To Win +320
3u
Summerhays to Win +170


LOL of course summerhays bogeys the 1st....

ADDED one silly play, that should give me action on the All Star game as well

2u
Westwood to win Consolaton + All Star game Over 283.5 +207



LETS GO HUNTER!!!... Pretty scary though as I saw that he dead shanked one early in his semi...

GL ALL




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#23
Posted: 2/26/2012 6:08:13 PM
-nicely done Mahan
-westwood putts for garbage in consolation match...
- Summerhays shoots 73 and plenty of guys go low... 

up and down but profitable week...

2-0 +14.14u Semis
1-2 +11u on Final and other plays

3-2 +25.14u on the day

(19-15 +23.08u) WEEK

(26-17 +33.87u) Overall 2012



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