Best of luck this week TRAIN! Not to be the contrarian but there is one stat that would seem to favor Mizzou here. The past 10 seasons, college football road favorites of 10 or more points coming off a bye week were just 34-68-2 against the point spread. That's a dismal 33.3 percent against the number.*
Last week's USC-14 at Utah comes to mind. The article that I quoted goes on to state that "look aheads" may account for part of this imbalance. 'Bama has Tennessee after Missouri so I doubt that that theory will be in play here.
Again best of luck, I also have Washington State on my short list.
Best of luck this week TRAIN! Not to be the contrarian but there is one stat that would seem to favor Mizzou here. The past 10 seasons, college football road favorites of 10 or more points coming off a bye week were just 34-68-2 against the point spread. That's a dismal 33.3 percent against the number.*
Last week's USC-14 at Utah comes to mind. The article that I quoted goes on to state that "look aheads" may account for part of this imbalance. 'Bama has Tennessee after Missouri so I doubt that that theory will be in play here.
Again best of luck, I also have Washington State on my short list.
I think your delusional about Alabama!!! I got it at -17.5 now -21 "YOUR" team Mizzou WILL score...How much will Bma score though???
Im thinking
Alabama 38
Mizzou 17....Push now....Loss by this afternoon THIS LINE WILLMOVE TO THE -25.5 RANGE BY GAME TIME!!
I got it in early
Football - NCAA - Alabama vs. Missouri - Alabama 10/13/2012 3:30:01 PM- (EST) -17½ -110
Now its at -21 and i dont see any value in a 3 TD road favorite!! GL
With you on all others except OU and Washington, which i will not be betting!!
How am I delusional? If Mizzou was healthy or playing well I would agree with you. They are off a stretch of UGA, Az St, So Car , UCF and Vandy. Theyve managed 18 ppg in those contests. In those 5 games, they have scored 47 total points in the 2nd h......they get tired and injured every single game. They havent had a break and just faced 5 pretty tough defense with 2 road games thrown in there.....
Mizzou has zero deep passing threat even if they have time to throw the ball. The delayed handoffs Pinkel/Yost like to run will not work vs Bama (they never really work anyway). So, that leaves the short passing game. I dont think thats gonna be very fruitful either.
Bama has given up 35 points all year and only 14 first half points. Michigan, Ole Miss, and Arkansas (yes, even this years bunch) are teams at least on Mizzous level, if not better. So to say Mizzou is gonna put up 17 is a bold statement indeed. If they score 3 times, which nobody has been able to do to Bama in the last 2 years (except Georgia Southern puttin 21 on the board ), I will tip my cap to them.
I think your delusional about Alabama!!! I got it at -17.5 now -21 "YOUR" team Mizzou WILL score...How much will Bma score though???
Im thinking
Alabama 38
Mizzou 17....Push now....Loss by this afternoon THIS LINE WILLMOVE TO THE -25.5 RANGE BY GAME TIME!!
I got it in early
Football - NCAA - Alabama vs. Missouri - Alabama 10/13/2012 3:30:01 PM- (EST) -17½ -110
Now its at -21 and i dont see any value in a 3 TD road favorite!! GL
With you on all others except OU and Washington, which i will not be betting!!
How am I delusional? If Mizzou was healthy or playing well I would agree with you. They are off a stretch of UGA, Az St, So Car , UCF and Vandy. Theyve managed 18 ppg in those contests. In those 5 games, they have scored 47 total points in the 2nd h......they get tired and injured every single game. They havent had a break and just faced 5 pretty tough defense with 2 road games thrown in there.....
Mizzou has zero deep passing threat even if they have time to throw the ball. The delayed handoffs Pinkel/Yost like to run will not work vs Bama (they never really work anyway). So, that leaves the short passing game. I dont think thats gonna be very fruitful either.
Bama has given up 35 points all year and only 14 first half points. Michigan, Ole Miss, and Arkansas (yes, even this years bunch) are teams at least on Mizzous level, if not better. So to say Mizzou is gonna put up 17 is a bold statement indeed. If they score 3 times, which nobody has been able to do to Bama in the last 2 years (except Georgia Southern puttin 21 on the board ), I will tip my cap to them.
Damn. I may be drunk or something, but I don't think they should be giving more than 2 TDs on the road this week. GL though. Most likely a stay away for me.
Damn. I may be drunk or something, but I don't think they should be giving more than 2 TDs on the road this week. GL though. Most likely a stay away for me.
Thanks for the insight Train. I just bumped Bama from 3 U to 5 U play. With Franklin out, I don't see how in the hell you guys move the ball at all. Are Ebner and the other LB that got hurt last week going to play?
Thanks for the insight Train. I just bumped Bama from 3 U to 5 U play. With Franklin out, I don't see how in the hell you guys move the ball at all. Are Ebner and the other LB that got hurt last week going to play?
Hey Train, been posting here very infrequently over the past 8 months or so, just wanted to stop by and wish you good luck rest of the way this year and offer my two cents on this Bama Mizzou game.
You touched on a lot of this from Mizzou perspective, an interesting point here is that from a Bama perspective they should come in with their asses on fire. I watched the entire Bama Ole Miss game, not only did Bama not cover but they played like SHIT. The oline inexplicably struggled with their one on one matchups, running game never got going, and the defense just looked sluggish at times. I know Bama won comfortably, but watching that game you could just tell they were going through the motions expecting to win while sleepwalking. Type of game film that Saban can really hammer the team over going into the bye week, I'm not on the game because I personally think there is no value on any Bama road game but definitely don't blame you taking them in this spot. Don't know necessarily how much they'll win by, but I'd be very very surprised if they didn't put forth an extremely sharp effort this week. GL with the rest of your card.
Hey Train, been posting here very infrequently over the past 8 months or so, just wanted to stop by and wish you good luck rest of the way this year and offer my two cents on this Bama Mizzou game.
You touched on a lot of this from Mizzou perspective, an interesting point here is that from a Bama perspective they should come in with their asses on fire. I watched the entire Bama Ole Miss game, not only did Bama not cover but they played like SHIT. The oline inexplicably struggled with their one on one matchups, running game never got going, and the defense just looked sluggish at times. I know Bama won comfortably, but watching that game you could just tell they were going through the motions expecting to win while sleepwalking. Type of game film that Saban can really hammer the team over going into the bye week, I'm not on the game because I personally think there is no value on any Bama road game but definitely don't blame you taking them in this spot. Don't know necessarily how much they'll win by, but I'd be very very surprised if they didn't put forth an extremely sharp effort this week. GL with the rest of your card.
Train, If this is going to be your biggest wager ever by the end of the week, I'm assuming you're playing this at -21.5 as well, correct? Your sportsbook had this one circled when it briefly opened at 17.5. They capped my wager at $100 at that price.
I know you bet well over $100, especially your biggest play. How much exposure are you going to give on 21.5 points and higher throughout the week?
Train, If this is going to be your biggest wager ever by the end of the week, I'm assuming you're playing this at -21.5 as well, correct? Your sportsbook had this one circled when it briefly opened at 17.5. They capped my wager at $100 at that price.
I know you bet well over $100, especially your biggest play. How much exposure are you going to give on 21.5 points and higher throughout the week?
Damn. I may be drunk or something, but I don't think they should be giving more than 2 TDs on the road this week. GL though. Most likely a stay away for me.
Maybe they shouldnt. If I didnt watch Mizzou so closely I would probably agree. I think people are looking for a FSU/NCST type game.....
Damn. I may be drunk or something, but I don't think they should be giving more than 2 TDs on the road this week. GL though. Most likely a stay away for me.
Maybe they shouldnt. If I didnt watch Mizzou so closely I would probably agree. I think people are looking for a FSU/NCST type game.....
Best of luck this week TRAIN! Not to be the contrarian but there is one stat that would seem to favor Mizzou here. The past 10 seasons, college football road favorites of 10 or more points coming off a bye week were just 34-68-2 against the point spread. That's a dismal 33.3 percent against the number.*
Last week's USC-14 at Utah comes to mind. The article that I quoted goes on to state that "look aheads" may account for part of this imbalance. 'Bama has Tennessee after Missouri so I doubt that that theory will be in play here.
Again best of luck, I also have Washington State on my short list.
I would think that Bama is better than all those teams from the stats and their opponent is wounded, playing a back up qb with a patchwork o line.....I doubt Bama is looking ahead since Mizzou is a new opponent whom they dont have a history of beating down (until after this year)
Best of luck this week TRAIN! Not to be the contrarian but there is one stat that would seem to favor Mizzou here. The past 10 seasons, college football road favorites of 10 or more points coming off a bye week were just 34-68-2 against the point spread. That's a dismal 33.3 percent against the number.*
Last week's USC-14 at Utah comes to mind. The article that I quoted goes on to state that "look aheads" may account for part of this imbalance. 'Bama has Tennessee after Missouri so I doubt that that theory will be in play here.
Again best of luck, I also have Washington State on my short list.
I would think that Bama is better than all those teams from the stats and their opponent is wounded, playing a back up qb with a patchwork o line.....I doubt Bama is looking ahead since Mizzou is a new opponent whom they dont have a history of beating down (until after this year)
Thanks for the insight Train. I just bumped Bama from 3 U to 5 U play. With Franklin out, I don't see how in the hell you guys move the ball at all. Are Ebner and the other LB that got hurt last week going to play?
I dont know yet if they will play. My hunch is that Pinkel will keep most of the injured guys out to preserve them for winnable games. I sure as hell wouldnt put my key guys on the field at 80% vs Bama.
Thanks for the insight Train. I just bumped Bama from 3 U to 5 U play. With Franklin out, I don't see how in the hell you guys move the ball at all. Are Ebner and the other LB that got hurt last week going to play?
I dont know yet if they will play. My hunch is that Pinkel will keep most of the injured guys out to preserve them for winnable games. I sure as hell wouldnt put my key guys on the field at 80% vs Bama.
Train, If this is going to be your biggest wager ever by the end of the week, I'm assuming you're playing this at -21.5 as well, correct? Your sportsbook had this one circled when it briefly opened at 17.5. They capped my wager at $100 at that price.
I know you bet well over $100, especially your biggest play. How much exposure are you going to give on 21.5 points and higher throughout the week?
I already have several bets in at -17 at various places and locals ( i usually get slightly better lines than most simply because of where I live and people like to bet Mizzou, same works when I bet against the cardinals with a local). I bet through some friends accounts when I want to go bigger than normal. I also have Bama teased with Houston tonight for a decent size bet. I will be adding more bets throughout the week, so I will have random bets from above -17. I will have 1st h, team totals and alternate spread bets as well as winning margin if available.
Train, If this is going to be your biggest wager ever by the end of the week, I'm assuming you're playing this at -21.5 as well, correct? Your sportsbook had this one circled when it briefly opened at 17.5. They capped my wager at $100 at that price.
I know you bet well over $100, especially your biggest play. How much exposure are you going to give on 21.5 points and higher throughout the week?
I already have several bets in at -17 at various places and locals ( i usually get slightly better lines than most simply because of where I live and people like to bet Mizzou, same works when I bet against the cardinals with a local). I bet through some friends accounts when I want to go bigger than normal. I also have Bama teased with Houston tonight for a decent size bet. I will be adding more bets throughout the week, so I will have random bets from above -17. I will have 1st h, team totals and alternate spread bets as well as winning margin if available.
GL Train... Any thoughts on the Miss? I think they improved 3TDs the day Nutt walked, and Aub is turrible(Barkley)...Can't score 14 against the Hogs....
GL Train... Any thoughts on the Miss? I think they improved 3TDs the day Nutt walked, and Aub is turrible(Barkley)...Can't score 14 against the Hogs....
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