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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Churchill Downs Notes on 5/5/2012 in Lousville
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
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#1
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:46:12 PM
Maybe we can learn from each other to improve results.  I know I made some mistakes.  Feel free to tell me I am a moron and full of crap.  Feel free to chime in preferably with something intelligent. 

Top Performance of the Day:  Groupe Doll.  Wow, wow, wow, WOW!  A brilliant, powerhouse performance.  The guys at Equibase don't use comments like "3w, took over at will" very often.  "Took over at will" in a G1 is not easy.  Now I bring this up not to act like a Monday morning quarterback.  I played conservatively all day and bet this horse but I should have bet more on her.  She justified a 2 unit play.  She stacked up very well on Speed and Pace.  But on top of that she stacked up extremely well on Stamina.  Note in her form two strong runs at GP going a one turn mile (98 and 100 Beyers).  On top of that she just scored a 100 Beyer win in a G1 at Keeneland so Recency was there.  at 7/8ths it all set up for her.  She was sitting on the tote at 9/2ish I should have bet more.  That type of combo on Speed/Pace/Stamina and with that Recency is lethal.  Lesson learned.    

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/CD050512USA9.pdf

Biggest Buzz Kill:  Race 10.  What a dud for the G1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic.  I was way off on this one.  I had a few beating the hell out of each other up front with a cavalry charge in the final furlong by a few others.  That's one reason why I thought Data Link at 9/1 was too juicy to ignore.  Instead a little G3 caliber miler jogged around at ridiculously slow fractions and stole the race.  Not sure if I could have made a better decision or if it was just one of those fluky races.  I recommend taking this into account if you look to play one of those guys next out because that race will not look like a good race in their form. 

Bode:  He's legit.  Not sure if he will get the Classic distance of ten furlongs but he is a legit horse.  For those of you that think speed figs are bogus then why did he almost wire a field of twenty horses coming in as the horse with clearly the best overall figs?  if the figs are trash how do you explain that? 

Pattern:  In the Derby I really like to analyze who I think is improving and projecting forward to run the best race of their life on the first Saturday in May.  One way of doing this is to see who has clearly run better figs in their 3YO season than they did as a 2YO.  I had IHA, Gem, Alpha, Dullahan, and Went the Day Well in this category.  Gem and Alpha were awful.  The other horses I mentioned all ran well.  I'll continue to do this although it is not iron clad and full proof obviously.  Conversely, I felt CC, Hansen, UR, and some others had possibly already shown us their best stuff under the hood.  Creative Cause surprised me.  he ran very well.  I felt he had peaked. 

Hansen:  Maybe he proves me wrong and wins the Preakness but I am still suspicious of this guy.  I don't think a sixteenth of a mile shorter will do the trick.  I have him as a red flag on Distance and Class.  He does not have success when pressured by other horses.  I'm sure people will be tempted to swing for the fences on him in the Preakness at 8/1ish.  I will not be doing that. 

Cutesie I Can Outsmart Everyone and Find an Angle Nobody Else Will See:  Horses like Daddy Long Legs and Done Talking got some play because there was some "sneaky" reason why they could win.  Done Talking is too slow.  period.  Case closed.  DLL tried to show zip and it was obvious that he does not have the physical skills to win this race.  I am not very good at finding big bombs.  Splids is the best at that.  I do know though that the best bombs to play are ones that at least have the physical ability needed to win the race. 

Closers at 9F:  I mentioned previously I almost had Daddy Knows Best as my top play.  I become more skeptical after looking deeper.  Some times those horses that make big late moves at 9F can make the same move at 10F.  Some times that late move at 9F is the end of the rope for them.  I got lucky here I suppose and faded DKB.  He was not able to run well at this distance.  Scat Daddy is off to a fast start as a Sire but no evidence yet that he will produce horses that can go ten furlongs. 

Lots of other stuff in my head but that's a start. 
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#2
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:17:32 PM
Biggest Surprise:  Liaison.  Ha, I had him finishing no better than 17th.  he ran 6th.  Completely caught me off guard.  Not sure if that was the horse or more of a case of Baffert being the best in the business at cranking up a horse.  Shocking performance to me.  Yikes!

Preakness:  I'm sure a lot of people feel Bode is a lock to win the Preakness.  After all in a smaller field and a sixteenth shorter it's a walk in the park, right?  He may indeed win but I will not be laying 4/5 odds on a horse making his third start in five weeks off of two monster efforts.  He absolutely can win but in my view he will be terrible value.  Make of that what you will. 
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#3
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:31:31 PM
Biggest Buzz Kill:  Race 10. 

Yep, I have to agree with you here. This race cost me the P3 and P4, as I did not expect the pace scenario that we got. I went three deep on my tickets with Slim Shady, Brilliant Speed, and Turallure. I tossed horses like Data Link, Doubles Partner, and Get Stormy because their best sheet figs were at a mile, while Slim Shady and Brilliant Speed posted faster figs at a longer distance than 1 1/8th.

I expected Turbo Compressor and Get Stormy to push the pace along much quicker than 24,48,112, but give credit to Little Mike, who is now 10 for 13 in his career. Sometimes it can be as simple as picking the horse that knows how to win races consistently.
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#4
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:41:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Johnnyg7:

Biggest Buzz Kill:  Race 10. 

Yep, I have to agree with you here. This race cost me the P3 and P4, as I did not expect the pace scenario that we got. I went three deep on my tickets with Slim Shady, Brilliant Speed, and Turallure. I tossed horses like Data Link, Doubles Partner, and Get Stormy because their best sheet figs were at a mile, while Slim Shady and Brilliant Speed posted faster figs at a longer distance than 1 1/8th.

I expected Turbo Compressor and Get Stormy to push the pace along much quicker than 24,48,112, but give credit to Little Mike, who is now 10 for 13 in his career. Sometimes it can be as simple as picking the horse that knows how to win races consistently.


I see your point on distance for Data Link.  However, he did show strong late movement previously at 8.5 furlongs on the green.  I took a shot at 9/1 with his improving pattern and as a 4YO he still could have a lot of room for improvement.  I was accepting risk with the distance and projecting.  Good selections by you.  I didn't like Slim Shadey based on lack of speed but he ran well.  I thought if it totally melted down Mott's horse as a bomb could nail them late as well. 

I expected a flurry of a finish with three or four horses within a length or so at the wire!!!



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#5
Posted: 5/7/2012 5:00:51 PM
Union Rags:  I don't feel bad ripping this horse because I already ripped myself for flip flopping and using him instead of the 13.  How many more excuses will they come up with for this horse?  where is this huge, monster race he is supposed to unleash?  I don't see it.

I was suspicious for a few reasons primarily because he did not improve his figs at all over what he did last year.  Also not convinced on the blood for longer distances.  Don't like the fact that he broke his maiden at Delaware.  Don't like how what matched his fastest race ever was a sprint in the slop.  I did NOT feel like he had such an awful trip in the Florida Derby.  people were making it out to be like he was blocked ten times in that race.  if he was good enough he still would have won that race.  At least that's how I see it.

Yes, on Saturday he passed some horses.  But who did he pass and how fast were they running at that point?  (Hint: not very fast). 

Maybe he proves me wrong but I plan on fading him the remainder of the year. 
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#6
Posted: 5/7/2012 5:08:25 PM
Surface:  Street Sense.  Animal Kingdom.  Dullahan ran a very nice race and he was moving with energy and enthusiasm down the lane.  Didn't look like the dirt bothered him to me. 

I try to be open minded about the surface until a horse clearly proves a certain surface just isn't happening.  Dullahan's first two races of his career were terrible on the dirt in Louisville.  But, be careful here.  That was June and July of his 2YO season.  He was just a baby.  it's entirely possible he was not prepared properly to run at that time.  Maybe the owner got anxious and forced the trainer to run him.  it's happened plenty of times before.

His race in the BC Juvey was ok.  OK at best.  He did move a little bit late in the race.  Like I said an OK race but he wasn't up the track.  His improving pattern was more important to me than the potential surface issues.
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#7
Posted: 5/7/2012 6:46:05 PM
Speed Figures and Track Variant:  I think this weekend provides a good example of speed figures.  The derby got a 101 Beyer fig.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/CD050512USA11.pdf

That is the Equibase chart which does not show the Beyer fig but it indeed shows the splits.  Bode got a comment of "fast pace, gamely" and the 6F split was 1:09.80 which is sizzling for a ten furlong race especially.

However, the Beyer is not that great because of the way the track was playing that day and on recent days.  So the people making the figs take this into account.  On Friday that 6YO coming 2nd off the bench broke the track record for 8.5 furlongs (nipped the horse I had to WP uuuuggghhhh).  On Saturday Groupie Doll set the track record for 7F in a ridiculous final time of 1:20.44.  Just think of all the talented male sprinters that have run at a place like Churchill Downs and she ran faster than them in terms of raw time.  I predict her Beyer will be no higher than 105 however.  They take into account how freakin fast it was playing and adjust accordingly.

This is why you can't look at these horses next time out and assume they will romp.  The speed figs help you adjust accordingly.
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#8
Posted: 5/7/2012 7:23:31 PM
Groupie Doll got a 112.
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#9
Posted: 5/7/2012 8:31:34 PM
Thanks for the info I couldn't find it.  Wow, faster than I thought. 
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#10
Posted: 5/7/2012 9:32:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Johnnyg7:

Biggest Buzz Kill:  Race 10. 

Yep, I have to agree with you here. This race cost me the P3 and P4, as I did not expect the pace scenario that we got. I went three deep on my tickets with Slim Shady, Brilliant Speed, and Turallure. I tossed horses like Data Link, Doubles Partner, and Get Stormy because their best sheet figs were at a mile, while Slim Shady and Brilliant Speed posted faster figs at a longer distance than 1 1/8th.

I expected Turbo Compressor and Get Stormy to push the pace along much quicker than 24,48,112, but give credit to Little Mike, who is now 10 for 13 in his career. Sometimes it can be as simple as picking the horse that knows how to win races consistently.


I see what you are saying here I think.  Do you mean he ran sheet figs faster than his shorter races or faster than races ran by the other horses?  I capped him and I just wasn't seeing it at all.  he ran 3rd and was bet down to 8/1.  I know he has the gas in the tank and can run even longer than 9 furlongs.  he looked too slow to me although i was not working with The Sheets.  I see he made that middle move in the BC Turf.  I eliminated him based on overall speed but apparently I was wrong.  Just curious what your detailed take was on him.

Thanks in advance
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#11
Posted: 5/8/2012 12:49:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:



I see what you are saying here I think.  Do you mean he ran sheet figs faster than his shorter races or faster than races ran by the other horses?  I capped him and I just wasn't seeing it at all.  he ran 3rd and was bet down to 8/1.  I know he has the gas in the tank and can run even longer than 9 furlongs.  he looked too slow to me although i was not working with The Sheets.  I see he made that middle move in the BC Turf.  I eliminated him based on overall speed but apparently I was wrong.  Just curious what your detailed take was on him.

Thanks in advance


Brilliant Speed got a 1 for his BC Turf Race at a mile and a half. Slim Shady was coming off a 2 for his 1 1/2 race at Santa Anita. Slim Shady was my key horse in the race, as I was not sure Brilliant Speed was ready to fire 2nd off the bench. He will be a key bet in his next race, especially if he goes longer than he did on Derby Day.

Looking at the other horses in the race, none of them even had this kind of speed, let alone the ability to carry it a distance. I grouped horses like Doubles Partner, Data Link, Get Stormy, and even Little Mike together as they were consistently running 4s. 5s, 6s at a mile and a few proved they could carry their speed 1 1/8. IMO they were just not fast enough to outfinish Slim Shady and Brilliant Speed. What I didn't expect in this race was lone speed, and had someone gone with Little Mike and made the pace quicker, it would have finished Slim Shady over Brilliant Speed. But that's horse racing.... Bravo is an excellent turf rider and took his horse on the lead out in the 4/5 path where the turf was firmer and was able to stretch an uncontested lead all the way home.

I'm not a huge sheet player, but I feel for big race days they are an absolute essential tool, although they are more expensive than the thorograph. And they are absolutely MONEY on the turf. If you don't normally use them, give em a try for Belmont on Belmont Stakes day and thank me later

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#12
Posted: 5/8/2012 7:28:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Johnnyg7:



Brilliant Speed got a 1 for his BC Turf Race at a mile and a half. Slim Shady was coming off a 2 for his 1 1/2 race at Santa Anita. Slim Shady was my key horse in the race, as I was not sure Brilliant Speed was ready to fire 2nd off the bench. He will be a key bet in his next race, especially if he goes longer than he did on Derby Day.

Looking at the other horses in the race, none of them even had this kind of speed, let alone the ability to carry it a distance. I grouped horses like Doubles Partner, Data Link, Get Stormy, and even Little Mike together as they were consistently running 4s. 5s, 6s at a mile and a few proved they could carry their speed 1 1/8. IMO they were just not fast enough to outfinish Slim Shady and Brilliant Speed. What I didn't expect in this race was lone speed, and had someone gone with Little Mike and made the pace quicker, it would have finished Slim Shady over Brilliant Speed. But that's horse racing.... Bravo is an excellent turf rider and took his horse on the lead out in the 4/5 path where the turf was firmer and was able to stretch an uncontested lead all the way home.

I'm not a huge sheet player, but I feel for big race days they are an absolute essential tool, although they are more expensive than the thorograph. And they are absolutely MONEY on the turf. If you don't normally use them, give em a try for Belmont on Belmont Stakes day and thank me later



Hmmm, interesting.  I find it interesting that Ragozin rated them significantly different than the Beyer figs would imply.  When I look at the PPs I don't see Brilliant Speed being significantly better than a horse such as Doubles Partner at this distance.  Beyond 9F then yes I would agree that Brilliant Speed would likely separate from a horse like Doubles Partner certainly on Stamina.  Getting a 1 or 2 versus 5s and 6s is quite a difference.  I'm not saying they are wrong just find the disparity interesting.  In fact, I don't see what I would consider a really nice race in Brilliant Speed's form.  he won that race at The Spa but a fairly modest 90 Beyer and it was "only" a G3.  Looks like he kind of runs around and doesn't make up a lot of ground but I have been wrong plenty of times before. 

My bad on Slim Shadey.  I noticed his Pattern was improving nicely but felt less enthusiastic about him on Pace.  Looking again he was a solid play and ding, ding, ding no wonder he got bet pretty hard considering the quality of the field.  I still will consider Data Link at 8, 8.5, or 9 furlongs max.  he got blocked a couple times late in that race and he could still be improving so we'll see.  Bejarano rides him Saturday he could have ran 2nd but would not have caught Little Mike unless placed much closer sooner.    

Maybe I'll get The Sheets for Belmont Day.  I believe there is a G1 on turf going a mile for older ladies and a ten furlong G1 for older boys on turf.
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#13
Posted: 5/8/2012 7:41:29 PM
Atlas Race 10 destroyed my pick 4 in which i used bode,union and IHA to finish. I would have never used the winner but I singled Turallure and god knows what happened to that horse. I won about $250 in the derby with $50 wps on bode and a $2 ex box with union, bode, iha, alpha

The one thing I will continue to stress is how bad pletcher is in the derby and how his training style just does not suit the race. I can't remember when a horse of his ran better 2nd and 3rd off the layoff which really bothers me. If you are going to bet pletcher bet him off the bench and at gulfstream so you can get some odds.

I'm not sure how anyone can say the beyer speed figure is a useless tool for the derby. It is single handily the most important tool when betting the derby.

The wood turned into a joke of a prep races. Any horse that closes in fractions such as 13 and change is not a good sign in the derby. Especially in a piss poor field like the wood with an average size field.

I still do not believe Bode had to be on the lead in the derby but anybody with half a brain would have sent him the way that track was playing. I can guarantee you we will see him rate and win in the future if he isnt breaking inside in a 20 horse field with a speed bias. He just didn't have the experience to try and change the running style and why would you with the way the track was playing. If he breaks outside he rates.

Trinniberg doesn't run Bode wins easy.

Maybe this guy Thomas is better then I give him credit for. Last year he picked Dialed in and Animal kingdom. This year his top three are union rags, went the day well, ill have another.
http://kentuckyconfidential.com/sections/thomas-on-horses/

I am still kicking myself for missing the trifecta. After the final prep races I said to myself the california horses are better this year and Im boxing the three west coast horses with union rags and dullahan. $1 tri would have paid me 1500 and it was fuckin easy.. Oh well next year
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#14
Posted: 5/8/2012 8:08:32 PM
Fat - Well you made money on the Derby so nothing wrong with that my friend.  It is always more painful when you could have made more when you know how to analyze and use the information.  I was well aware of all four in the super and expected them to fire but I couldn't even pull the trigger on a 50 cent super. 

Agreed on Pletch.  Eye opening how he has so many that run off the screen while also having quite a few that run up the track.

Agreed on speed figs of course.

Yup, in retrospect the Wood was no better than Optional Claiming N2X for 62.5K on any Saturday at a top circuit.

Bode will mature.  A lot of action in a short amount of time.  One reason why I can't tee it up on him on the W end in Baltimore even though it "looks like" he is a solid fit.  IHA has pretty fresh legs I expect him to fire again. 
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Posted: 5/9/2012 9:43:08 AM
Atlas not sure Bode will go. They said he was laying in his stall yesterday which makes sense he ran a pretty tough race. I'll have another looks like the logical pick but I am not sure he is the type of horse who will fire with only 2 weeks off. Oneil trained this horse with major gaps in his race schedule and then we heard he was doing shockwave treatment. Makes me wonder how sound the horse is and how he will handle only 2 weeks off.
I give Baffert credit he trains his horses to run and gets them really fit. I don't see a lot of his horses getting injured and I believe it is because he trains his horses to the highest fitness level. If he sends bode I would expect him to be fit enough but arkansas 3 week gap, preakness 2 week gap is asking a lot for a horse with no 2  year old experience. I almost hope they give him the race off. Other then that it would be tough to bet closing types because we can expect the pace to be slower and a track that is known to be favorable to pace type horses.
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#16
Posted: 5/10/2012 6:50:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fatroll07:

Atlas not sure Bode will go. They said he was laying in his stall yesterday which makes sense he ran a pretty tough race. I'll have another looks like the logical pick but I am not sure he is the type of horse who will fire with only 2 weeks off. Oneil trained this horse with major gaps in his race schedule and then we heard he was doing shockwave treatment. Makes me wonder how sound the horse is and how he will handle only 2 weeks off.
I give Baffert credit he trains his horses to run and gets them really fit. I don't see a lot of his horses getting injured and I believe it is because he trains his horses to the highest fitness level. If he sends bode I would expect him to be fit enough but arkansas 3 week gap, preakness 2 week gap is asking a lot for a horse with no 2  year old experience. I almost hope they give him the race off. Other then that it would be tough to bet closing types because we can expect the pace to be slower and a track that is known to be favorable to pace type horses.


Good point regarding IHA.  We could look at that a couple of ways.  One way is to say he was given breaks because he needs some type of sophisticated therapy and therefore two weeks may not be enough time to recover.  Another way is to say they have been doing the shockwave and other things all along and gave him a light campaign to have a fresh horse for all three races in the TC series.

Regarding Pimlico, if it favors horses that can lay close I would surmise that only helps IHA even more.  If it is not playing lightning quick like CD was then what does that do for Bode?
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#17
Posted: 5/11/2012 8:19:49 AM
Well with Bode it just depends if he has anything left in the tank. I agree the track does play in IHA favor and any horse who wins the derby can not be disregarded and should be the favorite imo. However that is not how it works. Rachel was favored, I think Lookin at lucky was favored off a loss, Curlin was favored, Point Given etc.

It just depends who is in the race that can affect the pace on bodemeister. If he can get a clear lead and go 23, 48 then he will win if he has anything in the tank. Similar to Oaklawn
I agree though IHA seems to be the safer play at a track that should benefit his running style and for the most part derby winners run well in the preakness because it takes a special horse to win the derby and I really believe that. Even the year Mine that Turd won I still backed him in the preakness when most of my friends disregarded him and I was able to hit a nice exacta with Rachel.
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