Valspar Championship Sleeper Picks and Predictions: Can Mav Make Magic at Copperhead?

The final stop of the Florida Swing is here, and all eyes will be on the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort's Copperheard Course. Xander Schauffele is headlining the field and sits atop the golf odds board for the week. 

It’s a deeper field than usual for this year’s stop at Copperhead, with Schaufele followed by Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, and Jordan Speith atop the Valspar Championship odds. Burns is a two-time champion here while Spieth hoisted the hardware in 2015.

We’re looking a little deeper with this week’s sleepers and free golf picks for the Valspar Championship.

2024 Valspar Championship sleeper picks

• Min Woo Lee to win outright (+3,500 at bet365)
• Maverick McNealy to win outright (+6,600 at BetRivers)
• Adam Schenk to win outright (+6,600 at BetMGM)
  
  
• Min Woo Lee Top 20 (+200 at BetRivers)
• Maverick McNealy Top 40 (+120 at BetRivers)
• Adam Schenk Top 40 (+110 at BetRivers)

Picks were made on March 19 at 2:30 p.m. ET.

2024 Valspar Championship and Copperhead Course key stats

Copperhead is a tough, 7,340-yard Par 71 with narrow, tree-lined fairways and plenty of doglegs, water hazards, and bunkers. The Snake Pit is a daunting three-hole finish, but the entire track is challenging, especially with the rough grown higher and closer to the greens for last year’s event.

The track played more difficult in 2023, too. Taylor Moore won at 10-under after Sam Burns carded consecutive 17-under finishes to win the prior two years.

Additionally, this layout plays longer than its yardage because of the doglegs and soft penal rough. Accuracy off the tee and strong long iron play are musts with one of the most common approach distances being between 175-200 yards. Excellent ball-striking has been a trait of each of the past eight winners, as they all finished Top 6 in true strokes gained tee-to-green.

I’m also prioritizing Par-5 scoring with each of the past five winners going 7-under or better for the tournament on the Par 5s. Finally, bogey avoidance, scrambling, and strokes gained around-the-green are key statistics to consider because of the potential for the course to play tough again this year.

• Strokes gained tee-to-green
• Par-5 scoring
• Scrambling, strokes gained around the green
• Proximity from 175-200 yards
• Bogey avoidance

2024 Valspar Championship sleeper predictions

Min Woo Lee to win outright (+3,500)

With four international wins and a solid start to this PGA Tour season, Min Woo Lee’s first Tour victory is coming sooner rather than later.

He contended at the Cognizant Classic with a T2 showing and he's torn apart Par 5s this season with the 14th-best scoring average. The runner-up finish at the difficult PGA National is particularly encouraging because similar tee-to-green acumen will be needed to excel at Copperhead this week.

Lee ranks 25th in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 14th in true strokes gained around-the-green in this field across his past 33 measured rounds. He’s also been a beacon of consistency with 21 consecutive cuts made. 

Additionally, I didn’t expect to see him trading above +3,000 this week, and I consider the +2,500 Caesars price fair in a field that isn’t filled with world-class players. The difference in the +3,500 bet365 odds and the +2,500 Caesars price is a positive expected value of 37%.

Pick: Min Woo Lee to win outright (+3,500 at bet365)
Pick: Min Woo Lee Top 20 (+200 at BetRivers)

Maverick McNealy to win outright (+6,600)

Maverick McNealy checks a lot of boxes this week. He’s played the weekend in six consecutive events and carded a trio of Top-15 finishes across his past four starts, including a T9 last week at THE PLAYERS. I also value his improved form aligning with fully recovering from the shoulder injury that cost him time last summer.

The 28-year-old American finished 14th in Par-5 scoring average during the 2021-22 season and is a short-game wizard, so there’s a lot of potential for him to put it all together with his confidence soaring.

His lone shortcoming is his approach game, which ranks 104th in true strokes gained on approach in this field across his past 26 measured rounds. However, he climbed to 28th on Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green following last week’s strong showing and there’s still a ton of room to grow.

I also value the gap in available odds for McNealy. He’s trading as short as +4,000 through Caesars, so when comparing the numbers, there's a positive expected value of 67% attached to this +6,600 price at BetRivers.

Pick: Maverick McNealy to win outright (+6,600 at BetRivers, .25 units)
Pick: Maverick McNealy Top 40 (+120 at BetRivers)

Adam Schenk to win outright (+6,600)

Adam Schenk returns to the scene of the crime where he blew a 36- and 54-hole lead to cough away his first PGA Tour victory last season.

He finished the event 12th in true strokes gained tee-to-green and second in true strokes gained putting, and the 32-year-old American heads to Copperhead following a T19 finish at TPC Sawgrass where he finished 18th in the field with an average of 1.638 strokes gained tee-to-green.

He ranks 32nd on Tour in Par 5 scoring average and still has statistical correction ahead of his tee-to-green game. Schenk gained an average of 0.351 strokes last season but is down to just 0.059 to start 2024. I’m anticipating his ball-striking to continue trending in the right direction at a track he knows he can contend at.

There’s also an edge in the available odds to take advantage of. Caesars has Schenk priced as short at +4,500 to win this week, so we’re landing a positive expected value of 47% on the +6,600 offering through BetMGM.

Pick: Adam Schenk to win outright (+6,600 at BetMGM, .25 units)
Pick: Adam Schenk Top 40 (+110 at BetRivers)

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