The NHL Eastern Conference Finals kicks off Wednesday when the New York Rangers host the Florida Panthers in Game 1 at Madison Square Garden. Despite the home-ice advantage, the Rangers enter as the underdog in this series with a series price of +125 and Game 1 moneyline odds of -105.
Let’s break down the matchup and find some NHL picks in the series markets for the ECF clash between the Rangers and Panthers.
All odds courtesy of bet365.
Panthers vs Rangers series odds
| Market | ||
|---|---|---|
 Panthers (-150) |
To win |  Rangers (+125) |
| Panthers -1.5 (+115) |
Handicap | Rangers +1.5 (-155) |
Having home-ice advantage and being the underdog in a series doesn't happen too often, but when you're as balanced as the Florida Panthers, it becomes easier to understand why this is one of the exceptions.
Panthers vs Rangers series preview
Panthers statistical breakdown
| Regular Season | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|
| CF% | 55.7% (2nd) | 54.6% |
| GF% | 56.6% (3rd) | 56.4% |
| xGF% | 54.3% (5th) | 50.8% |
| Team SV% | 91.3% (2nd) | 91.9% |
| PP% | 23.5% (8th) | 22% |
| PK% | 82.5% (6th) | 86.1% |
Florida is the favorite in this series thanks to the experience they gained in last year's Finals run. There aren’t many holes in this lineup, which is built for the playoffs, as it can match the New York Rangers top two lines in terms of offensive production. There is a little more grit on this Florida roster, and Sam Bennett is going to be a hated man in New York.
This is also a Florida team that had enough offense to take care of the Bruins and Jeremy Swayman in six games. The Panthers can win low-scoring games, they have elite special teams, and they won’t get bullied. Igor Shesterkin has been one of the best in the playoffs, but the win over Swayman has instilled plenty of confidence in this group.
The Panthers have also taken care of business on the road with a 4-1 straight up record which includes a 3-0 SU run in Round 2 vs. Boston.
It’s tough to find holes in this roster that enter the third round fully healthy, but Sergei Bobrovsky has been average in the playoffs despite some massive saves. He’s had six games so far in the playoffs with a sub .900 SV%. The tough thing for New York is Florida can shut down the chances, and Bob can win stopping 22 of 25. The Rangers are averaging under 25 shots per game in the postseason.
N.Y. has had plenty of success with the power play so far — ranking third in the playoffs at 31.4% — but the Panthers have killed 18 of the last 19 penalties covering the last seven games. Florida has the advantages in everything but goaltending entering this series.
Rangers statistical breakdown
| Regular Season | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|
| CF% | 50.1% (19th) | 45.8% |
| GF% | 50.2% (16th) | 51.4% |
| xGF% | 49.1% (22nd) | 47.3% |
| Team SV% | 90.7% (5th) | 92% |
| PP% | 26.4% (3rd) | 31.4% |
| PK% | 84.5% (3rd) | 89.5% |
The Rangers swept the Caps in the first round and then took six games to beat the Hurricanes after going up 3-0 to start the series. Bettors cashed the Rangers to win the series vs. Carolina at +130.
New York scored 20 goals in the second round, with five coming on the power play, while 11 of their total 35 goals in the playoffs have come with the man advantage. New York’s best path to a series win is capitalizing on the PP. The Rangers’ metrics at 5-on-5 have not been impressive at face value, but they’ve also been winning, which leads to positive game script and defending.
N.Y. enters this series healthy and with little rest advantage as it wrapped up its series vs. the Canes on Thursday, while Florida finished its series on Friday.
Shesterkin will have to be the team's best player, and he can be the difference in this series. His 0.843 goals saved above expected/60 is the best mark of all the remaining goalies, and the New York netminder has the same odds as Connor McDavid to win the playoff MVP. He also showed he could handle a high volume of shots and still win, as he won each game he saw at least 35 shots in the previous round.
The Over is 9-0-1 in the last 10 meetings but I’m expecting this to be another low-scoring series with few scoring chances. New York can win the series without winning the possession game but will need a perfect series from Shesterkin and the power play. Jacob Trouba also needs to get his head straight, as no team is more antagonistic than the Panthers.
All statistics are at five-on-five except power-play percentage and penalty-kill percentage.
Panthers vs Rangers series props
Panthers vs Rangers correct score odds
| Team | Win 4-0 | Win 4-1 | Win 4-2 | Win 4-3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers |
+800 | +500 | +375 | +500 |
| Rangers |
+1,200 | +750 | +650 | +500 |
Pick: Correct score after Game 4: 2-2 (+155 at bet365)
Florida is tough to take at -150 to win the series which is a similar price that Carolina was last round. I love the Panthers roster and how well it’s suited for playoff hockey, but so do the books, and -150 is too much for a road team.
With the play of Shesterkin in the playoffs, it’s hard not to lean into a close series. Yes, the Rangers have not been elite at 5-on-5 in terms of xGF%, but they were also the 22nd team in that metric during the regular season where they posted the best record in the league.
The best series market I see is the correct score after four games where the 2-2 tie is paying +155. Everyone loves the Panthers in this spot, but Shesterkin and the New York special teams have been elite, and the Rangers' top two lines match up well vs. the Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk lines.
With an opening Game 1 total of 5.5, this is going to be the lower scoring of the two remaining series. The Rangers have played the underdog card well, and Shesterkin can steal a game early.
There are metrics many will point to that show New York's weaknesses, but those numbers have been prevalent all season long and are likely the reason N.Y. is a decent dog for the second straight series. The Blueshirts are not playing bad hockey, and this series should see six or seven games, which makes the 2-2 tie after four games at +155 my favorite series bet.
Panthers vs Rangers series best bet
Pick: Vincent Trochek to lead series in goals (+1,200 at bet365)
The pricing on New York players to lead the series in points/goals is awfully long thanks to the Panthers being the series favorite, but with the Rangers getting production from just two lines, getting Vincent Trochek to score the most goals in the series at +1,200 is my favorite player prop in this series.
He currently has six goals over 10 games and trails team leader Chris Kreider by one. He’s playing all his shifts with Artemi Panarin, who is the betting favorite to lead the series in points, and his 5-on-5 line with Alexis Lafreniere has been the team’s best unit.
Florida is getting scoring from everyone which should dilute their goal totals in this series. There is also a chance Igor Shesterkin wins this series by himself and locks down the Florida offense.
Bobrovsky has made some huge saves but he's not seen a ton of volume in the postseason and ranks 13th in the playoffs in goals saved above expected/60. The New York offense has the better matchup in this series, and getting a guy who should be within or two goals of the series lead at +1,200 is hard to pass up.
Trochek is also averaging nearly two more minutes of ice time per game in the playoffs than in the regular season.
