Two Western Conference teams playing .500 hockey of late will square off in Winnipeg as the banged-up Vegas Golden Knights look to forget about Tuesday’s collapse vs. the Predators and get some valuable points in the standings against a Jets side who all of a sudden are struggling in net.
With Adin Hill out and Connor Hellebuyck mired in a 4-7 SU slump that comes with below-average peripherals, is the Over 5.5 a little more appetizing tonight in a game with two clubs on poor form?
I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks Golden Knights vs. Jets for Thursday, March 28.
Golden Knights vs Jets odds
Golden Knights vs Jets predictions
Nothing is exciting about this goaltending matchup despite one of the starters likely winning the Vezina at season’s end.
Connor Hellebuyck has not played well over the last 30 days and has just four wins over his last 11 games while giving up three or more goals in eight of those matches. Over the Winnipeg Jets’ current four-game losing streak, Hellebuyck is 0-3 SU and has allowed 12 goals to Edmonton, the Islanders, and Washington.
Tonight he faces a Vegas Golden Knights offense that scored three-plus goals in eight of its last 10 games and is still losing more than it’s winning with a 4-6 SU record over that stretch.
Vegas ranks 11th in expected goals/60 at even strength over the last 10 games (Winnipeg is 12th) and the power play also has a great matchup vs. the Jets’ penalty kill which is killing penalties at 61% since the beginning of the month. The Knights can find the back of the net but so can the Jets.
Logan Thompson is confirmed tonight as Adin Hill is day-to-day. He won’t have defense leader Alex Pietrangelo (out) in front of him and that’s a tough break for the starter. He has been putting up great numbers of late with just three goals allowed over his last three starts, but it’s an unsustainable rate for a goalie with career numbers that mimic a league-average goalie.
The Knights’ offense is healthier, it’s missing a key defensive piece, Hellebuyck is in poor form, and the Jets still have a great offense on paper and get a goalie playing above his numbers. This low total of 5.5 is a great spot to hit the Over which is -120 at SIA.
My best bet: Over 5.5 (-120 at SIA)
Golden Knights vs Jets same-game parlay
Over 5.5
Golden Knights moneyline
Just taking the side and total might be boring, but I'm already hitting a plus-money moneyline so there is no need to boost this up much more. If I were to add something else, I might add a Shea Theodore assist as he leads all D-men in assists/60 and gets a great matchup on PP1 vs. a struggling Winnipeg PK.
Hellebuyck is just in a funk and it isn't a three-game set. He has been in poor for all of March with just three of 11 games where he allowed two or fewer goals. Both teams have been inconsistent all year but the value is on Vegas and why it's getting shorter on the ML.
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Golden Knights vs Jets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- SIA opened the Jets as -135 ML favorites but the markets have swung to the Golden Knights who have moved from +115 to +105. The total of 5.5 hasn’t seen much movement but at that low of a total, it’s assumed many like the Under.
- Looking at the Jets, they’re only without Gabe Vilardi who has been out since the beginning of March. The team addressed that depth at the deadline with the addition of Sean Monahan who will skate on the second line with Nick Ehlers and Tyler Toffoli while Kyle Connor. Mark Scheifele and Alex Iaffallo are on the top line.
- It’s a little more complicated for the visitors who are without Pietrangelo, Hill, Mark Stone, and Tomas Hertl but this club has dealt with injuries all season. The top line is Jack Eichel with Ivan Barbashev and Johnathan Marchessault. The trio also plays on PP1 together.
- Vegas has won nine of the last 10 meetings including the two meetings this year which were at the beginning of the season in October and November. They were -125 home favorites in the most recent meeting — a 5-2 win in November.
Golden Knights vs Jets betting trend to know
The Vegas Golden Knights have covered the Puck Line in 58 of their last 103 games (+17.25 Units / 11% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Jets.
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Golden Knights vs Jets game info
| Location: | Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg, MB |
| Date: | Thursday, March 28, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Scripps, TSN3 |
Golden Knights vs Jets latest injuries
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