March Madness Props and Best Bets: NC State vs Marquette Predictions for the Sweet 16

Prop bet #1: Diarra double-up

A big piece to the North Carolina State Wolfpack’s sudden success is the play from forward Mohamed Diarra. The 6-foot-10 junior has been doing the dirty work for the Wolfpack during this magic run going back to the ACC tournament.

Diarra faces a Marquette Golden Eagles front court that hasn’t been great on the glass, sitting 287th in rebound rate. The Golden Eagles have been out-rebounded in both NCAA Tournament games so far, including giving up a total of 26 offensive rebounds to WKU and Colorado.

Sweet 16 rebound props have Diarra’s Over/Under set at 10.5 with the Over juiced to -150 while his scoring prop is at 8.5 points with that Over also at -150, giving a heavy lean toward a 9-point, 11-rebound stat line for Diarra on Friday.

His combo prop of points + rebounds, however, is sitting at 19.5 O/U with the Over at -120.

Diarra has grabbed 12 or more rebounds in six straight games while averaging 11.7 points in that span and has surpassed that combo total in each of those contests. He’s logged vital minutes for NC State, allowing burly center D.J. Burns to get a breather when needed.

Player projections call for an even bigger effort, with almost 11 points and 13 rebounds from NC State’s standout forward. With Marquette giving up too many offensive boards, Diarra will have plenty of opportunities to grab those rebounds and put them back in for two points – a perfect play to push past this combo prop.

Mohamed Diarra prop: Over 19.5 points + rebounds (-120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Burns notice

A sudden break in action like this five-day hiatus can be the worst thing for a team as hot as NC State, as well as a player as hot as D.J. Burns.

The Wolfpack’s 6-foot-9, 275-pound man in the middle has captured the nation with his interior play, giving defenses fits with his brute strength, surprising quickness, footwork, and soft touch around the rim.

Burns isn’t logging major minutes, but when he’s on the floor he’s making the most of it. Since the start of the ACC tournament, “The Dancing Bear” is averaging 16.6 points in just over 24 minutes of floor time. He’s coming off his second-highest scoring effort of the season, with 24 points in the overtime win against Oakland.

That showing and Burns’ exploding popularity has his scoring prop for Friday’s Sweet 16 at 14.5 points with the Over juiced to -135. This could be the perfect time to buy back the Under on Burns.

On the season, Burns averaged 12.8 points per game and scored 15 points or more in only four of 20 conference contest before catching fire in the ACC tournament (in which he put up 15-plus in three of five games).

The Golden Eagles are a tough matchup for a body like Burns based on the way they can drain opponents. Marquette runs an up-tempo pace overall and works fast on the offensive end as it pushes the ball in transition. On the other end, Shaka Smart’s “Havoc Defense” forces opponents deep into the shot clock just for a clean look.

Player projections aren’t too high on Burns either. Some models call for just over 10 points in 19 minutes. Even if Burns logs his standard 24-25 minutes, he’s still not threatening the 14.5-point total. On top of that, Marquette has a solid defensive counter in athletic 6-foot-11, 235-pound center Oso Ighodaro.

It’s been fun watching Burns burst onto the national scene, but this taller total could be asking a lot, especially at this price.

D.J. Burns prop: Under 14.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Tiny Morsell

Casey Morsell kicked off the postseason in style with a 25-point effort in the opening ACC Tournament win over Louisville. But since then, the senior guard has been “meh” on offense for an electric NC State squad.

Known more for this defense, Morsell finished with only eight points in the Round of 64 and had 11 in the Round of 32, which has been his ceiling since that big effort against U of L. Morsell scored six, 11, 11, and eight points in the final four ACC tournament outings and finished the regular season averaging 11.4 points per contest.

Morsell hasn’t shot well in the NCAA Tournament, firing up a combined 6-for-20 from the field in the wins over Texas Tech and Oakland. He draws a tough matchup against Marquette in the Sweet 16, with the Golden Eagles’ wing defenders standing taller than the 6-foot-3 senior.

Morsell will draw 6-foot-5 guards Kam Jones and Chase Ross. Marquette’s defense does a great job funneling ball handers into pressure and help-side defense while 6-foot-11 Oso Ighodaro changes shots at the rim.

Morsell isn’t a great outside threat and relies on getting inside of the bulk of his looks. He’ll also be tasked with slowing down the Golden Eagles’ loaded backcourt, which will eat up a ton of energy and possibly fouls.

Forecasts for this Sweet 16 matchup have Morsell scoring around his average versus an Over/Under on points of 10.5, with the Over juiced to -135. Given his defensive duties and what Marquette will throw his way, I like the Under 10.5 at the discounted -105.

Casey Morsell prop: Under 10.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)