No one wants to get in the way of the No. 1 UConn Huskies in this March Madness bracket, not after they have covered the spread in nine straight tournament games. However, no one can stop the No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini when star guard Terrence Shannon Jr. has the ball.
These have been the two safest bets among all March Madness odds. Logically, only one should hold up in the Elite Eight.
Let’s ponder differing strong trends in our free March Madness picks and predictions as we preview Illinois vs. UConn on Saturday, March 30.
Illinois vs UConn best odds
Illinois vs UConn picks and predictions
UConn’s surge has been driven by its defense. Since Creighton lit the nets on fire on Feb. 20, the Huskies defense has jumped to No. 3 in the country, per barttorvik.com. Adjusting for opponents, UConn lowered its points allowed per 100 possessions by 6.8 points since Feb. 20. The offense has also improved, by 6.2 points per 100 possessions, but it was already humming at a top-tier rate. The defense was merely good, not this level of great.
Only one team has stressed the Huskies’ defense in this stretch, St. John’s in the Big East Tournament semifinals, playing in the Red Storm’s home of Madison Square Garden. How did St. John’s do it? Mostly through offensive rebounding, grabbing 17 boards — 42.5 percent of those available — and scoring 18 points on second or third chances while drawing four fouls.
The Red Storm also shot well, 10-of-22 from deep, and turned the ball over just five times. Both of those were statistical abnormalities compared to St. John’s Big East numbers. The offensive rebounding was somewhat more expected. That was not a fluke.
Illinois is a better shooting team than St. John’s, and it turns over the ball even less. Replicating those Red Storm surprises would make efficient use of the Illini possessions. But the key will be adding more possessions via offensive rebounds, as St. John’s did.
Illinois is an even better offensive-rebounding team than Rick Pitino’s team is, grabbing 35.3% of available boards in Big Ten play. Junior center Dain Dainja has grabbed 22 in his last five genuine games, injury sidelining him in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals.
UConn has big men, namely 7-foot-2 sophomore Donovan Clingan, but a stubborn veteran can cow Clingan a bit on the interior. Red Storm fifth-year Joel Soriano very much did, grabbing seven rebounds in that 95-90 barnburner. So did San Diego State star Jaedon LeDee on Thursday, finding six offensive boards.
If Dainja continues as he has been, then a few extra Illinois possessions should be all Terrence Shannon Jr. needs to continue his hot streak. The numbers no longer need to be listed off. No offensive player is shining brighter than the Illini fifth-year guard over the last two months. To get by Iowa State on Thursday, he used 42% of the possessions in his 29 minutes to score 29 points, his seventh game of 25 points or more.
UConn’s defense is playing better than is yet realized by sportsbooks, but no one is playing better than Terrence Shannon Jr. He might crack 23 points in the first half without needing any second-chance points, but Dainja setting up a few extra looks is what creates value in trusting the most reliable player in this year’s Tournament.
My best bet: Terrence Shannon Jr. Over 22.5 points (-106 at Pinnacle)
Illinois vs UConn same-game parlay
Terrence Shannon Jr. Over 22.5 points
Illinois team total Under 72.5
UConn moneyline
Shannon probably knows Illinois’s best hopes of this upset will depend on him staying hot. It is distinctly possible he goes for 40 and the Illini halt UConn’s back-to-back bid. Crazier things have happened in March, and he scored 40 points in a comeback win against Nebraska to reach the Big Ten title game.
But most likely, Shannon will play well but inefficiently. The Huskies’ defense will force him to work for his buckets. And that will doom Illinois’s overall scoring. Second-chance points take longer than making the first shot, somewhat shortening the game.
Combining faith in Shannon with faith in UConn’s defense — holding its last nine NCAA Tournament foes below their team totals — creates value in this same-game parlay due to its counter-intuitive nature.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Illinois vs UConn spread and Over/Under analysis
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A few books beat the wider market to open and posted UConn as a 7.5-point favorite late on Thursday, but they quickly corrected to -8.5, a number better reflecting the Huskies’ of late, not of the entire season.
- This total has ticked upward by a point at some books, to 155.5 from 154.5, creating a thought of added value in grabbing the Illinois team total Under now.
- Seven of UConn’s last eight games have gone Under their totals, the exception being when St. John’s played nearly perfectly.
Illinois vs UConn betting trend to know
UConn went 6-0 ATS in March Madness last year, covering by an average of 14.8 points. It is 3-0 thus far this tournament, covering by an average of 11.2 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Illinois vs UConn.
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Illinois vs UConn game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, March 30, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:09 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
