Seattle Mariners righty Luis Castillo is the MLB odds underdog when he takes the hill for Game 2 of their three-game series against righthander Corbin Burnes and the Baltimore Orioles.
The Orioles scored nine runs in Friday’s 9-2 victory, but our MLB picks expect Castillo to have the upper hand today when the Mariners meet the Orioles on Saturday, May 18.
Mariners vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Luis Castillo Over 5.5 strikeouts (+100 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Seattle Mariners righty Luis Castillo might be 4-5 on the season, but he’s pitching like a guy (2.99 xFIP) who should be 7-2 or better.
Castillo has always had above-average stuff; his four-seamer has seen a slight decline in velocity over the years. However, it’s still a filthy pitch, and, along with a highly effective slider, he has whiffed 37 batters across his last five starts.
The Mariners righty is one of those rare birds who pitches deep into ballgames. He’s gone six frames or more in each of his last five starts, and that type of longevity usually makes him good for a strikeout prop.
The 31-year-old fireballer with the unusual delivery has struck out a tick over 10 batters per nine frames. Castillo is coming off an eight-strikeout outing where he pitched six frames against the Athletics and has an excellent matchup to clear 5.5 strikeouts today.
The Baltimore Orioles are a good-hitting team. They’ve scored 21 runs in their last five games but boast a 21% strikeout rate against right-handers. They struck out eight times on Friday night; across the past 14 days, that number has spiked to 24%, and Castillo’s filthy off-speed stuff can exploit that this afternoon.
Castillo is an innings-eater with a relatively longer leash than most. He’s pitched at least six frames in each of his last five starts and has cleared his strikeout prop number in his past eight starts. While the sample size is small, the Mariners righty has struck out this Baltimore lineup eight times in 28 at-bats and meets a probable Orioles lineup with 82 strikeouts in their past 307 at-bats.
He’ll pitch at least six frames and notch Over 5.5 strikeouts today.
Mariners vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Luis Castillo Over 5.5 strikeouts
Ryan Mountcastle Under 0.5 hits
Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 hits
Baltimore 1B Ryan Mountcastle has hits in two of his last five, but his Achilles heel is the off-speed stuff. Castillo has dominated lefties with an abundance of changeups and sliders, and those pitches are all Mountcastle and Orioles CF Cedric Mullins will likely see from the Mariners righty today.
Mullins is riding the struggle bus; he’s gone hitless in each of his past five and only two hits across the past 10. Castillo has been filthy against left-handed lumber, and the struggling defensive whiz won’t get a hit today.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mariners vs Orioles odds
Mariners vs Orioles live odds
Mariners vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Seattle -1.5 (+160) | Baltimore + 1.5 (-192)
- Moneyline: Seattle (-110) | Baltimore (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Mariners vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- Baltimore has beaten Seattle in five of their last seven. Money came in on the Orioles, raising the odds to -110 from a -112 opener.
- Seattle opened at -104 but saw their moneyline trade from -106 to -110.
- The total hasn’t moved from the 7.5 opener, but the vig has. Over-markets report odds of -110 from the -115 opening price, while Under-markets are trading at -110 from a -105 opener.
DraftKings Early Win Payout: Up 2 = Win!
Make your moneyline bets less of sweat with DraftKings' EWP, where every day you can get one MLB moneyline bet paid out immediately — as soon as your team goes up by 2+ runs
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Mariners vs Orioles trend
Castillo has struck out Over 5.5 batters in eight of his past nine starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Orioles
Mariners vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Luis Castillo (4-5, 3.31 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | TBD (X-X, X.XX ERA) |
Mariners vs Orioles latest injuries
Mariners vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
