The Atlanta Braves hope to improve an 11-9 away record when they visit the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday.
Charlie Morton takes the mound for the Braves against Julian Assad and will try to avoid a similar result to last week when Assad and the Cubs earned a 7-1 victory in Atlanta.
We explain why today’s weather and matchup works out great for a Chicago hitter in our Braves vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, May 21.
Braves vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
If you were to look at Cody Bellinger’s splits this season without knowing anything about the player, you’d think he was a right-handed bat. So far in 2024, the Chicago Cubs outfielder is hitting .375 vs left-handed pitchers with an OPS of .925 while striking out just five times in 40 plate appearances. Meanwhile, he’s got a paltry .215 average vs righties while slugging just .462 in 108 appearances.
Why the lefty slugger is struggling against opposite-side pitching is unclear, but it seems to be coming around a bit. In fact, he’s notched an extra-base hit in four of his last five games, with the last three all coming off righties. He also singled and walked in his two ABs last week against Charlie Morton, the pitcher he faces on Tuesday.
Bellinger has a strong history against the Atlanta Braves pitcher, with a career .389 average in 21 appearances. He’s walked three times while notching a trio of doubles, and he’s good value to get multiple bases in today’s game.
After a slow start to the season, Bellinger seems to have figured things out in the month of May. He’s notched a .327 average this month and has eight XBH in 53 trips to the plate. He’s also slugging .571 since the start of the month.
Bellinger’s home splits are vastly superior to his road numbers. His .290 average is more than 50 points higher and he’s hit five of his seven home runs at Wrigley Field this season. That’s important, because the Windy City is expected to live up to its moniker Tuesday with BATX projecting a 21 mph wind to left field, the strongest of any game today.
Morton’s WHIP vs left-handed batters this season is 1.44 compared to just 0.79 vs. righties, and the Cubs lit him up last week in Atlanta as he needed 76 pitches just to record nine outs. He walked three batters and gave up five hits, and it could be another short outing for him at Wrigley where he has a 5.86 career ERA in nine starts.
I’ll back Bellinger to get another XBH here, especially with conditions ripe to turn a long double into a home run.
Braves vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 total bases
Charlie Morton Over 2.5 earned runs
Cubs F5 moneyline
Wrigley Field has been a house of horrors for Morton, and he’s going to struggle on Tuesday against a Cubs lineup that has already hurt him once this season. The weather conditions are the second-best of any ballpark, and his whiff rate is in the bottom-half of the majors this year. He won’t get away with any hanging curves here.
Javier Assad dominated the Braves last week, scattering four hits and a walk over six innings while striking out seven hitters. He’s once again vastly outperforming his xERA as he works his sinker, as he recorded eight ground ball results for seven outs in the previous meeting. He’ll do enough to carry them to a lead after five innings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Cubs odds
Braves vs Cubs live odds
Braves vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 | Chicago +1.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta -123 | Chicago +114
- Over/Under: Over 10 | Under 10
Braves vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Braves are favored on the moneyline at -120, but the Cubs have moved from +114 to near even-money. The Cubs are getting +1.5 on the run line, with -150 the best odds on offer.
- The Cubs ended a five-game losing streak to the Braves with their 7-1 win last week, but they followed it up by losing three of four to the Pirates. The Braves have lost four of their last five.
- The total of 11 is seeing the Over slightly favored, while 11.5 sees the Under getting most action.
- The Under is 8-2 in Atlanta’s last 10, and 5-2 in Chicago’s last seven.
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Braves vs Cubs trend
The Braves have hit the Under in 25 of their last 31 games (+19.35 Units / 56% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs Cubs
Braves vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Charlie Morton (3-1, 3.52 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Javier Assad (4-0, 1.49 ERA) |
Braves vs Cubs latest injuries
Braves vs Cubs weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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