Following yesterday’s Opening Day offensive flex, the Toronto Blue Jays will look to begin the season 2-0 with another victory over Aaron Civale and the Tampa Bay Rays as the MLB odds underdogs send Chris Bassitt to the mound.
Despite an uptick in strikeouts after moving to Tampa at the deadline, nobody is projecting Civale as a high K% pitcher and the leash is not going to be long today for a pitcher who has never touched 130 innings. Because of that, there is value in Civale's strikeout Under at 4.5 in a tough matchup vs. a right-handed lineup with a pitcher who struggles more vs. righties.
Read on for my best free MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Rays, for Friday, March 29.
Blue Jays vs Rays odds
Blue Jays vs Rays predictions
Aaron Civale increased his strikeout rate after going to the Tampa Bay Rays last year but with THE BAT projecting just 15.9 outs, and a likely low-80 pitch count, hitting the Over on his K prop of 4.5 is something I’m fading.
THE BAT is projecting just 4.12 punchouts for the Tampa starter whose reverse splits favor right-handed hitters which Toronto is loaded with. Bettors saw how quickly the Toronto offense can chase a starter as Zach Eflin was cruising until the third time through the order yesterday where the Jays put up five runs on six hits and chased the Tampa starter.
The Jays had a 21% K-rate yesterday but Eflin’s stuff projects better than Civale’s who still projects to be a less-than-a-K-per-inning pitcher despite late success with swing-and-miss last year. For what it’s worth, he had just nine strikeouts over 12 innings over the Spring.
The Tampa starter has also never thrown more than 125 innings in a season so the chances of a long leash today are short.
It’s Under 4.5 strikeouts from the Tampa starter today for me vs. a tough lineup, a 4.12 K projection, and a -125 price on the Under 4.5. No model has Civale above a 22% K-rate this season.
My best bet: Aaron Civale Under 4.5 strikeouts (-125 at PROLINE+)
Blue Jays Star Player Prop
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit a 450-foot moonshot to a spot in the Trop, not many batters have hit in the past. He has moved to the No.2 spot in the order but still can collect a +175 RBI with nobody on base. His home run prop at +400 or better is decent value, but his Over 0.5 RBI at +175 is the better move here if you’re looking to back a Blue Jay prop.
Of Vlad’s five at-bats yesterday, his exit velocities were 108 mph, 95.8 mph, 111.8 mph, and 105.6 mph. He also struck out once. Those are some locked-in hard-hit balls and Civale is not a groundball pitcher with a 39% GB% last season.
George Springer could get into scoring position for Vlad, the bottom of the order could set the table as well, or Vlad can do it by himself. All I know is that +175 is a buypoint for me on his RBI when you consider lead-off man Springer is priced at +195. Bo Bichette at +200 is also a good RBI look.
Blue Jays prop: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+175 at PROLINE+)
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Blue Jays vs Rays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Jays opened as a +105 road dog and have bounced around between +105 and +100 this morning. The total isn’t uniform across the market with some books at 7.5 and some at 8 at the time of writing.
- The only arms that might not be available for the bullpen today are on the Tampa side with righty Shawn Armstrong who threw 29 pitches yesterday and lefty Garrett Clevinger who threw 25. Neither side used their closers so some stronger arms could come in just to get some work in non-conventional situations.
- The head-to-head is split at 5-5 SU over the last 10 games. The Over is a perfect 10-0 over that stretch as well.
- The Jays are still missing two key relievers in closer Jordan Romano and set-up man Erik Swanson. Tampa is missing hitter Brandon Lowe and some key starters that have no effect on tonight’s game.
Trend to know
The Over is a perfect 10-0 in the last 10 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rays
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Blue Jays vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Friday, March 29, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:50 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SN, BSSUN |
Starting pitchers
Chris Bassitt (0-0 0.00 ERA): Bassitt is coming off his fourth straight season with an ERA of 3.60 or lower. He was elite in his last Spring start striking out nine batters over 16 outs and walked just a single batter over 14 warm-up innings. THE BAT is projecting 90-plus pitches, 18.2 outs, 5.2 strikeouts, and 2.43 earned runs.
Aaron Civale (0-0 0.00 ERA): The Rays traded for Civale at the deadline last year and the right-hander finished 2-3 SU with a 5.36 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. His underlying numbers were decent with a 58:11 K:BB rate over 43-plus innings but he struggles more with right-handed hitters He reached six innings in his last Spring start and is projected for 81 pitches, 15.9 outs, 4.12 strikeouts, and 2.08 earned runs, per THE BAT.
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