After a one-week pause, the road to the Kentucky Derby resumes with a pair of key prep races this Saturday. The Louisiana Derby and the Jeff Ruby Steaks represent the first two preps of 2024 offering 100 points to the winner, which is essentially a guaranteed ticket to the first Saturday in May.
Check out my free betting picks and analysis of the Kentucky Derby odds for the feature races at the Fair Grounds and Turfway Park on March 23.
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Louisiana Derby odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Fair Grounds Race 12
- Post time: 6:42 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Triple Espresso | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,000 |
| 2 | Hall of Fame | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| 3 | Antiquarian | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,200 |
| 4 | Agate Road | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| 5 | Catching Freedom | 4-1 | +400 | +400 | +400 |
| 6 | Awesome Ruta | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +3,000 |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| 8 | Next Level | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +3,000 |
| 9 | Real Men Violin | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,000 |
| 10 | Common Defense | 6-1 | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| 11 | Tuscan Gold | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 3-1 | +300 | +300 | +300 |
Odds as of March 21, 2024.
No. 12 Track Phantom (5-2, morning-line favorite) nearly wired the Risen Star when last seen, settling for second to the current favorite in the Kentucky Derby odds in Sierra Leone. That rival didn't show up here, but Track Phantom finished ahead of the five others who are trying the Louisiana Derby off a Risen Star effort.
Like he did in the Risen Star, Track Phantom has drawn wide for this heat. But he'll have almost the entire Fair Grounds stretch to cross over and ensure he saves ground. Joel Rosario stuck with this son of Quality Road that's won three straight on fast dirt over Steve Asmussen stablemate Hall of Fame.
No. 7 Honor Marie (8-1) merits a pass after a lackluster fifth off the bench in the sloppy Risen Star. He was a highly-rated winner of the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill two starts ago. Ben Curtis has the call on the Whitworth Beckman trainee.
No. 2 Hall of Fame (8-1) didn't get the best of trips in the Risen Star but ran a hole in the wind over this course two-back — respect as Ricardo Santana Jr. retains the assignment.
No. 5 Catching Freedom (4-1) looks like the most consistent runner in this field from a speed-figure perspective outside of the top pick. Flavien Prat takes over on the Smarty Jones Stakes winner for Brad Cox, and it looks like the more distance the better for the son of Constitution.
Best bet: $4 exacta 12/2,5,7, $4 exacta box 7/12 ($20)
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Jeff Ruby Steaks odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Turfway Park Race 12
- Post time: 6:25 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freedom Principle | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +3,000 |
| 2 | Dancing Groom | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,000 |
| 3 | Lucky Jeremy | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| 4 | Noted | 10-1 | +1,000 | +1,000 | +1,000 |
| 5 | Agate Road | 7-2 | +350 | +350 | +350 |
| 6 | Northern Flames | 5-1 | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| 7 | Woodcourt | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| 8 | Otello | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +1,500 |
| 9 | Seize the Grey | 6-1 | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| 10 | Endlessly | 5-2 | +250 | +250 | +250 |
| 11 | Baytown Chatterbox | 50-1 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +5,000 |
| 12 | West Saratoga | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,000 |
| 13 | Circle P (AE) | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +3,000 |
| 14 | Triple Espresso (AE) | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,200 |
Odds as of March 21, 2024.
No. 10 Endlessly (5-2, morning-line favorite) is an obvious standout as he attempts to run his lifetime record to 5-for-6. Only one other rival has four career wins (Woodcourt), but it's come over 10 career starts.
Endlessly was last seen uncorking a strong late rally in the Grade III El Camino Real Derby over the Tapeta surface at Golden Gate Fields, rebounding nicely from his lone defeat in the Grade I Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. He's one of only a few here that doesn't have to answer either the distance or the surface question, and jockey Umberto Rispoli sees fit to make the trip for trainer Michael McCarthy.
No. 5 Agate Road (7-2) boasts a solid 4: 2-1-0 record on grass, and he exits a solid second-place result in the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes on the Tampa Bay Downs main oval. It stands to reason that he'll take to the Tapeta, and his human connections are strong in jockey Jose Ortiz and trainer Todd Pletcher.
No. 3 Lucky Jeremy (8-1) could sweeten the exotics a bit if he can carry his Sunland Park form over to the all-weather Turfway surface. His listed stakes win two-back was well-rated, as was his third-place result in the Sunland Derby.
Look for jockey Gerardo Corrales to put him in the hunt early for trainer William Morey, who fires at 24% with runners going from conventional dirt to synthetic surfaces.
Best bet: $15 exacta 10/5, $5 exacta 10/3 ($20)
Road to the Kentucky Derby
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | November 3, 2023 | Santa Anita Park | Fierceness |
| Smarty Jones Stakes | January 1, 2024 | Oaklawn Park | Catching Freedom |
| Jerome Stakes | January 6 | Aqueduct | Drum Roll Please |
| Lecomte Stakes | January 20 | Fair Grounds | Track Phantom |
| Southwest Stakes | February 3 | Oaklawn Park | Mystik Dan |
| Withers Stakes | February 3 | Aqueduct | Uncle Heavy |
| Holy Bull Stakes | February 3 | Gulfstream Park | Hades |
| Robert B. Lewis Stakes | February 3 | Santa Anita Park | Nysos* |
| Sam F. Davis Stakes | February 10 | Tampa Bay Downs | No More Time |
| Risen Star Stakes | February 17 | Fair Grounds | Sierra Leone |
| Sunland Derby | February 18 | Sunland Park | Stronghold |
| Rebel Stakes | February 24 | Oaklawn Park | Timberlake |
| Fountain of Youth Stakes | March 2 | Gulfstream Park | Dornoch |
| John Battaglia Memorial | March 2 | Turfway Park | Encino |
| San Felipe Stakes | March 2 | Santa Anita Park | Imagination* |
| Gotham Stakes | March 2 | Aqueduct | Deterministic |
| Tampa Bay Derby | March 9 | Tampa Bay Downs | Domestic Product |
| Louisiana Derby | March 23 | Fair Grounds | TBD |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks | March 23 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| UAE Derby | March 30 | Meydan (Dubai) | TBD |
| Arkansas Derby | March 30 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Florida Derby | March 30 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| Santa Anita Derby | April 6 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Blue Grass Stakes | April 6 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Wood Memorial | April 6 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Lexington Stakes | April 13 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Kentucky Derby | May 4 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
*winner trained by Bob Baffert and is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby.
Not intended for use in MA.
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