This thread is a continuation of my earlier one Titled "NBA O/U System"
Day 7 went 3-2 (23-18) overall with yesterday being the only below .500 day so far and 1-1 (8-3) on hot games. Just barely escaped the dreaded losing day with Pho/OKC going under.
I posted earlier that the Boston game may be one to watch, but with the updated stats it fell below the 9.4 rating to 8.6. I already bet it ... but officially there is only one play so far.
Oklahoma City/Cleveland Over 195.5 (16.4) Chicago/San Antonio Under 191 (8.7) Golden State/Boston Under 203 (8.6) Orlando/Philadelphia Under 190.5 (7.5) Indiana/Houston Under 190.5 (5.8) Phoenix/Minnesota Over 196 (3.4) New York/Detroit Under 208.5 (2.3) New Jersey/Sacramento Over 211 (0.4) Miami/Portland Over 193 (0.3) Charlotte/Toronto (191.4) Milwaukee/Atlanta (188.7) Memphis/Utah Over (185.6) Denver/LA Clippers (184.5)
This thread is a continuation of my earlier one Titled "NBA O/U System"
Day 7 went 3-2 (23-18) overall with yesterday being the only below .500 day so far and 1-1 (8-3) on hot games. Just barely escaped the dreaded losing day with Pho/OKC going under.
I posted earlier that the Boston game may be one to watch, but with the updated stats it fell below the 9.4 rating to 8.6. I already bet it ... but officially there is only one play so far.
Oklahoma City/Cleveland Over 195.5 (16.4) Chicago/San Antonio Under 191 (8.7) Golden State/Boston Under 203 (8.6) Orlando/Philadelphia Under 190.5 (7.5) Indiana/Houston Under 190.5 (5.8) Phoenix/Minnesota Over 196 (3.4) New York/Detroit Under 208.5 (2.3) New Jersey/Sacramento Over 211 (0.4) Miami/Portland Over 193 (0.3) Charlotte/Toronto (191.4) Milwaukee/Atlanta (188.7) Memphis/Utah Over (185.6) Denver/LA Clippers (184.5)
yeah , we got want we need a barn burner nice one ken , I know from the past that thanksgiving day is hard day to call because alot of the line really sharp . We just have to be patient stick with it , because are on to something and i think that the NFL this week will come back down to earth.
yeah , we got want we need a barn burner nice one ken , I know from the past that thanksgiving day is hard day to call because alot of the line really sharp . We just have to be patient stick with it , because are on to something and i think that the NFL this week will come back down to earth.
well let see what happends tonight?:) think your systems are really good . I wrote to you the old on , but will say here again thank you again for your system on the nets game.
well let see what happends tonight?:) think your systems are really good . I wrote to you the old on , but will say here again thank you again for your system on the nets game.
Gas, Sorry you took an L on that one, but it was a W for the system. If a line is available when I post that means I bet it if it was above 9.4 and I will use that line for the official tally, even if I'm on the short end. If I don't have a line when I post and the line moves into the 9.4 range I will use the line it was at when I bet. Like tonight I had GS/Bos under 202 even tho the line moved all the way up to 205.5. I bet that game before the games were over last night and I think I am going to hold off on doing that again. Once the line kept moving the other way I knew I was in trouble, but since it closed above the 9.4 rating I will count it.
Thanks Hiss Dog ... like I said in the 1st post, Only time will tell.
Gas, Sorry you took an L on that one, but it was a W for the system. If a line is available when I post that means I bet it if it was above 9.4 and I will use that line for the official tally, even if I'm on the short end. If I don't have a line when I post and the line moves into the 9.4 range I will use the line it was at when I bet. Like tonight I had GS/Bos under 202 even tho the line moved all the way up to 205.5. I bet that game before the games were over last night and I think I am going to hold off on doing that again. Once the line kept moving the other way I knew I was in trouble, but since it closed above the 9.4 rating I will count it.
Thanks Hiss Dog ... like I said in the 1st post, Only time will tell.
...well kenyon...I can only bet with a local book and he opens 1 hour before the first NBA game begins...so if a game has been better than the (9.4) threshold that you have established then I will bet them.
Tonight ........OKC/Cle...over 200 (11.9)...lost
GS/Bos....Under 205 (11.2)...lost
Den/LAC...Under 198 (13.5)...lost
...0-3 on ALL GAMES over (9.4)....
......what now???? Bet all of the games regardless of the "threshold"? I don't have that kind of bankroll...
...well kenyon...I can only bet with a local book and he opens 1 hour before the first NBA game begins...so if a game has been better than the (9.4) threshold that you have established then I will bet them.
Tonight ........OKC/Cle...over 200 (11.9)...lost
GS/Bos....Under 205 (11.2)...lost
Den/LAC...Under 198 (13.5)...lost
...0-3 on ALL GAMES over (9.4)....
......what now???? Bet all of the games regardless of the "threshold"? I don't have that kind of bankroll...
gas, your at a big disadvantage if you only bet through a local that opens up an hour before tipoff.... u should try and setup an online account, to get better lines
gas, your at a big disadvantage if you only bet through a local that opens up an hour before tipoff.... u should try and setup an online account, to get better lines
I see your predicament Gas ... overall I think you are safe (hard to believe after going 0-3 tonight) with betting anything over 9.4. By all means don't bet all the games ... the hot picks are doing way better then the overall. BUT ... I don't plan on betting anymore games that "back door" into a 9.4 such as the Boston Game tonight. I'll give the public/other bettors credit. The line was moving the wrong way, so betting the under was probably not a wise move, the books were begging for under money. I only did it because I bet it so early, before any line moves. So BEWARE of that in the future. Of course when the line is moving in my favor your screwed because you can't get a bet in early.
Well glad to get that first losing nite done ... I knew it had to come sooner or later. Seven days of nothing worse then 50-50 was decent, but I want to do better.
Day 8 7-6 (30-24) overall 1-2 (9-5) hot picks. One game for tomorrow.
Orlando/Washington Under 200 (11.8) New Orleans/Denver Over 196.5 (4.3)
I see your predicament Gas ... overall I think you are safe (hard to believe after going 0-3 tonight) with betting anything over 9.4. By all means don't bet all the games ... the hot picks are doing way better then the overall. BUT ... I don't plan on betting anymore games that "back door" into a 9.4 such as the Boston Game tonight. I'll give the public/other bettors credit. The line was moving the wrong way, so betting the under was probably not a wise move, the books were begging for under money. I only did it because I bet it so early, before any line moves. So BEWARE of that in the future. Of course when the line is moving in my favor your screwed because you can't get a bet in early.
Well glad to get that first losing nite done ... I knew it had to come sooner or later. Seven days of nothing worse then 50-50 was decent, but I want to do better.
Day 8 7-6 (30-24) overall 1-2 (9-5) hot picks. One game for tomorrow.
Orlando/Washington Under 200 (11.8) New Orleans/Denver Over 196.5 (4.3)
Kenyon Im glad I got the line last night at 195.5 cause it would have been a loss. I had a great day today going 7 for 7. Wish I would have put a parlay in.... Happy Thanksgiving guys and BOL
Kenyon Im glad I got the line last night at 195.5 cause it would have been a loss. I had a great day today going 7 for 7. Wish I would have put a parlay in.... Happy Thanksgiving guys and BOL
I went 1-0 Ken! Didn't track those other lines and played Oklahom very early and got it in at 196! Sorry for the other guys. Great work. You keep em coming!
I went 1-0 Ken! Didn't track those other lines and played Oklahom very early and got it in at 196! Sorry for the other guys. Great work. You keep em coming!
HeaVin, WOW 7-0 WTG!!! I missed seeing that last nite.
Gas, If it starts above (and stays above) the threshold you are ok, to bet it. It's when it is not in the threshold to begin with then the line change puts it in that you better beware. You may lose the "squeaker" games with your local book where the rest of us win, but that's the price you pay. I see it's at 198 now (9.8) I would not bet anything lower then that with your book, maybe 197.5 (9.3)
HeaVin, WOW 7-0 WTG!!! I missed seeing that last nite.
Gas, If it starts above (and stays above) the threshold you are ok, to bet it. It's when it is not in the threshold to begin with then the line change puts it in that you better beware. You may lose the "squeaker" games with your local book where the rest of us win, but that's the price you pay. I see it's at 198 now (9.8) I would not bet anything lower then that with your book, maybe 197.5 (9.3)
This is weird, posts are not showing up then showing up later. HeaVin's did it last nite and now I see Gas's 8:37 am post for the first time. Gas I think I know where the confusion is ... when I say the line is moving "in my favor" I mean it is looking less attractive. ie if I bet Orl/Was Under at 200 and it moves to 197.5 then it moved 2.5 points in my favor. It means the books want money on the over, which is good for my bet at 200. So your 8:37am post is backwards from what I am saying to you.
I'll check all the picks and make a post showing how the line moved and how the picks did, just for shits and giggles, and I am curious now.
This is weird, posts are not showing up then showing up later. HeaVin's did it last nite and now I see Gas's 8:37 am post for the first time. Gas I think I know where the confusion is ... when I say the line is moving "in my favor" I mean it is looking less attractive. ie if I bet Orl/Was Under at 200 and it moves to 197.5 then it moved 2.5 points in my favor. It means the books want money on the over, which is good for my bet at 200. So your 8:37am post is backwards from what I am saying to you.
I'll check all the picks and make a post showing how the line moved and how the picks did, just for shits and giggles, and I am curious now.
11/23 Boston/Toronto 0.5 W 11/21 Orlando/Indiana 1.5 W 11/22 Atlanta/Cleveland 1.5 W 11/27 Orlando/Washington 2.5 W 11/24 Philadelphia/Charlotte 3 W 11/26 Oklahoma City/Cleveland 4 W 11/22 Washington/New York -6 W 11/25 Phoenix/Oklahoma City -3.5 W 11/21 New York/Milwaukee -2.5 W 11/23 Golden State/Philadelphia -0.5 W 11/21 Utah/San Antonio 0 L 11/25 Golden State/Washington 2 L 11/24 Sacramento/Portland 3 L 11/26 Golden State/Boston -3.5 L 11/26 Denver/LA Clippers -0.5 L
Ok, here are the results. If the number is positive it means the line moved in my favor. It shows in 6 of the wins the line moved in my favor and in 4 of the wins it moved against me. So I am 6-3 when the lines move with the picks and 4-2 when the line moves against, same % for each case. It also shows the line moves with my picks in 9 out of the 15 games so far.
11/23 Boston/Toronto 0.5 W 11/21 Orlando/Indiana 1.5 W 11/22 Atlanta/Cleveland 1.5 W 11/27 Orlando/Washington 2.5 W 11/24 Philadelphia/Charlotte 3 W 11/26 Oklahoma City/Cleveland 4 W 11/22 Washington/New York -6 W 11/25 Phoenix/Oklahoma City -3.5 W 11/21 New York/Milwaukee -2.5 W 11/23 Golden State/Philadelphia -0.5 W 11/21 Utah/San Antonio 0 L 11/25 Golden State/Washington 2 L 11/24 Sacramento/Portland 3 L 11/26 Golden State/Boston -3.5 L 11/26 Denver/LA Clippers -0.5 L
Ok, here are the results. If the number is positive it means the line moved in my favor. It shows in 6 of the wins the line moved in my favor and in 4 of the wins it moved against me. So I am 6-3 when the lines move with the picks and 4-2 when the line moves against, same % for each case. It also shows the line moves with my picks in 9 out of the 15 games so far.
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