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Quote Originally Posted by kimoinsd808: So he wasn't fired up to start the game? My mistake in choice of words, I mean 'fired up' in the sense of 'once he makes a big play and gets some momentum'. So yeah, of course he was 'fired up', but he has not been able to get any consistency and he is one QB that once he gets going, it's pretty tough to slow him down. |
CELTiC5 | 10 |
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DON'T count out NE yet.
Has everyone forgot who their QB is and what he can do once he gets fired up? Biz |
CELTiC5 | 10 |
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Quote Originally Posted by grapes: WOW I was thinking NE -3 to 4. The books seen what happened at Pit yesterday. -9.5 I dunno but I like the over. GL Yeah usually with 2nd half spreads if the home favorite, espeically a favorite like this (more than 7 points) is down big, they set a big spread for that favorite because most people think they will come back and make it a close game. Given NE history, I think that is a pretty good assumption. |
CMJohnson1 | 1346 |
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money coming in on Pats, it's now Pats -10
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CMJohnson1 | 1346 |
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that seems like a solid line, Pats could still lose game by one point and cover -9.5 for 2nd half. I can't believe that they won't come back and win... but who knows, maybe the trash talking and good defensive Jets game plan will prevail...
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CMJohnson1 | 1346 |
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My book is NE -9.5 o/u 21.5. thoughts?
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CMJohnson1 | 1346 |
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One more play. Appears NE should pull starters after 1st quarter if not sooner.
2. Dolphins +4.5 ($55/$50)...... |
Bizcovers | 5 |
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I like to go with a good value so I got NE -150 a week or so ago to win the AFC Championship. SB is way too up in the air and after the Pats blew the perfect season, anything is possible in the big game. I prefer to stick with the futures on the division and conference championships.
Besides, if they are favored by a lot of points in the big game, I can always lay a small amount on their opponent and go for the middle to win both bets. |
mleavers2000 | 17 |
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I agree you have to look at how teams won their games and what the surrounding circumstances were, otherwise it's like taking a line out of a speech and drawing a conclusion without understanding the context.
I remember the Bears some years back when they were 13-3 and we all thought they were going to the super bowl. Yet looking at the season, many of the wins were against inferior teams, or they caught a good team at the right time and won. It was really a case of a 10-6 team going 13-3. When naysayers brought up the fact that the Packers, who were really one of the few quality opponents they had that year beat them twice, most people brushed it off. Then the Eagles came to town and showed them a thing or two about what real quality teams can do in the right spot. End of season. So I always think one must look way beyond Ws and Ls to see what can happen in any given game. |
LineKiller28 | 26 |
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Won't have internet access this weekend to get final news updates, insights, weather reports etc... so going very very light here.
1. Teaser (two team 6.5 points) Packers -3.5 & Chiefs +3 $60 / $50 GL to everyone see you all after the new year |
Bizcovers | 5 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Greyhound: I was listening to the Score 670 in Chicago yesterday and those guys (beat writers and show hosts) are almost positive that if the Bears don't have a shot at the #1 seed when this game begins that they are going to lay down and play backups. It's Lovie Smith's history. He's done it before in this situation. Just wanted to pass that along. And they were very, very, very adamant and confident about it. It was the Boers and Bernstein show that I was listening to. Be careful. Not everyone agrees with their assessment 100% but most do agree that they will not have starters in the entire game and certainly won't have them at full tilt. I don't know about laying down and all that. Lovie has really impressed everyone with his coaching this season, for all we know he may have a trick or two up his sleeve Still 10 points is a lot and a back door cover is always very possible if GB is up let's say 14-16 points very late and pulls their starters. They have a lot of injuries and won't get a bye week. It's imperative they get a big lead and rest anyone they can late. Biz |
LineKiller28 | 26 |
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Quote Originally Posted by gmitran: From article I found... In the 2005 season, they clinched the second seed of the playoffs with one game remaining. In the last game of the regular season, the Bears rested quarterback Rex Grossman and played Kyle Orton and Jeff Blake instead. Other key starters, such as Brian Urlacher, played sparingly. Lennie Friedman, who had not played a snap all season, got time at both left guard and defensive tackle. Rashied Davis also played two ways. The Bears took a slightly different approach the next season after clinching home field throughout the playoffs with two regular-season games remaining. In the penultimate game of the regular season, they played the starters and beat the Lions 26-21. In the finale, on New Year's Eve against the Packers, they played like they were more concerned about party plans than game plans. Grossman threw three interceptions in the first half and Brian Griese replaced him for the second half in what turned out to be an ugly 26-7 loss to a team that finished 8-8. Been listening to this debate on Chicago AM radio. Differing views but most agree to some extent on the following: Rest anyone who has had nagging health issues which is only a couple of key players and have the rest play somewhat like a normal game. Obviously, he may then decide to pull starters in 2nd half at some point, particularly if the game is out of reach. He can't afford to have anyone on the O line, Cutler, Hester or Forte injured for the first play off game. He also has to draw balance between resting and not having the players have too much time off and lose their momentum. SO that is why the line is 10 which actualy might be right. I think I am going to pass on this. It could come down to something flukey, even a Bear back door cover. |
Bizcovers | 31 |
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Overall YTD
ATS: 9-8 ML: 0-0 Teasers: 2-1 Overall: 11-9 (55%) Overall $= +$156 |
Bizcovers | 5 |
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updating week 16
1. Redskins +7.5 (bought hook) $125 to win $100....WIN 2. Teaser (2 Team 6 points) Browns/Ravens under 46 & SF +8.5 ($55 / $50)...WIN NOTE: Philly under was cancelled so that is not included. Overall YTD ATS: 9-8 ML: 0-0 Teasers: 2-1 Overall: 11-9 (55%) Overall $= +$156 |
Bizcovers | 7 |
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thanks I just noticed those threads. My bad on that. I am going to listen to more Bears radio this week. No matter what, the Bears and Lovie may have a lot of pressure on them to play tough. Recall most were doubting Lovie and even talking about if he would make it through the end of the season. Pretty much everyone is now praising him and if he rests starters and gives up the game most of that good will will go out the door.
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Bizcovers | 31 |
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Can someone verify what the exact scenario is? Can the Bears get #1 seed if Atlanta and N.O lose?
Of course if there is any chance, then the +10 is wonderful. Either way +10 seems good. I can't picture Lovie resting people unless the game is totally out of reach late in the 4th quarter. I will listen to AM radio here in Chicago and try to get a better feel. Keep in mind, while this is not New York or Philadelphia, the media has been really tough on Lovie but have changed their tune. Sitting starters against Green Bay will only cause him more headaches than it's worth. Few people would criticize him for not resting them even if a big player like Hester or Cutler got hurt. |
miracleminded | 15 |
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So the line I have Packers -10 at my book - I am assuming this is because the Eagles lost so the Bears have locked up the first round bye and the #2 seed meaning the game is kind of meaningless. But what if by some miracle, Atlanta does not beat Carolina, can the Bears get the #1 seed if they beat the Packers?
Thoughts? I wast thinking maybe wait until the Atlanta game is coming to a close and then taking the Packers if, as expected Atlanta wins, and taking the points if Carolina wins. 10 points is a lot I think we need an official thread that explores different scenarios like this to see if there are any other similar scenarios. I know that NE -3 has jumped to -4 because people realize that NE usually does not rest people early even with the top seed locked. Biz |
Bizcovers | 31 |
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Yes they will need that win in GB which seems tougher after yesterday's GB - Giants game. I think Packers will be extremely fired up and the Bears will need to have a near flawless game, especially on defense, to pull it out. I guess the other way is for Philadelphia to lose to either Minnesota or Dallas both of which are extremely unlikely.
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firefighterben | 15 |
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replied to
Anyone ever notice that most of the poeple that win the contests here never post?
in General Discussion Quote Originally Posted by supadame: Maybe they don't wanna deal with: A. The punks who ride your nuts when you win, then totally turn on you with your first loss. B. The jerks who make it a point to announce they're against you in your thread. C. The punks that just drop in your thread to post D. The idiots that speak of "Vegas" like it's a person that they know personally. E. The jackasses that think it's funny and find amusement when others lose money or are victims of a really bad beat. F. The endless "Vegas doesn't give away free money" and "Vegas is setting a trap" threads. Again. Like Vegas is a real person that they know. G. The mush of attention seeking threads, ie: "Why is everyone on" or "Follow me to greatness" or the famous "Everyone that bets on such and such is complete morons!" H. The drones, shills, and haters that infest threads and torment, harrass, and eventually drive away every good capper or contributor on this site. Are those enough reasons? There's only a handful of cats on here that are truly classy and are strictly about their loot and aren't about bullshit. Which is sad, because the whole purpose of this site is to help each other stack paper.
and you probably could add this to that already great list: - Often the best people at anything (career, finances, relationships etc..) got that way and created advantages for themselves by Not sharing their insights with everyone. Seems selfish but then again life is not always about being fair and that is great news because it means that those who figure out an angle on something can get an advantage for themselves that if shared, could easily negate it. Think about it, there are a zillion posted trends, different systems that usually are not consistent over the long haul but let's say you really did discover some system that every year averaged 70% winners and you shared that with everyone. Over time eventually if enough people caught on, it would impact the spread in those games and the system's win percentage would drop. So the less you share with everyone sometimes the better it is for you and perhaps a few carefully selected people who know how to keep their mouths shut. |
Crowkillers | 53 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Bizcovers: They know that the #2 seed means a bye and possible home field all the way through if somehow Atlanta gets upset. The thought they could play the NFC championship at Chicago should be enough motivation. Many still doubt how 'legit' their season has been due to a series of fortunate breaks, the last one being Favre getting injured and they know they have to keep winning to prove they are a real contender. Well it looks like they were quite motivated, 38 against a supposedly solid Jets defense. GB won yesterday and so if I am not mistaken, if the Eagles win tomorrow the Bears still will need to win in GB to lock in that first round bye. |
firefighterben | 15 |
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